Dynasty Scouts Player Spotlight: Karlos Williams
Editor’s Note: This article is a Dynasty Scouts exclusive. Remember, our Dynasty Scouts section focuses on the stars of tomorrow, with a laser focus on High School recruits and College players who look to have the talent to be future assets in dynasty leagues and have value today in devy leagues. It’s written by Matt Caraccio, a new Member Corner writer for us. The addition of Matt helps us expand our Dynasty Scouts offering and we look forward to seeing more of his work in the future!
Dynasty Scouts Player Spotlight: Karlos Williams, #9 RB Florida State
Strengths: Excellent size, excellent initial burst, powerful runner, elusive in the open field, instinctive runner, vision, homerun threat
Weaknesses: Inconsistent leverage, limited experience at the position, effectiveness in the passing game inconclusiveÂ
Who is Karlos Williams?
Karlos Williams might be the most exciting running back prospect in college football, but more on that a bit later. Williams was considered by many to be one of the elite safety prospects, yes I said safety, in the country coming out of Ridge Community High School in Davenport Florida in 2011. A five star prospect recruited by Florida State, Williams appeared in 25 games at defensive back for the Seminoles from 2011 to 2012. In that span Williams recorded 39 tackles, one interception and three pass break ups. Also during that time, Williams flashed as a kick returner, recording a total of 526 yards on 21 returns for an average of 25 yards per return. Although Williams was mostly injury free throughout his college career, he did sustain a broken wrist in 2011 during the regular season finale against Florida and as a result, he was forced to miss the Champs Sports Bowl.
In the fall of 2013, coach Jimbo Fisher decided to move Williams to the Seminole backfield. Fisher attributed the move to a lack of depth at the tailback position, but one cannot ignore the fact that up until this point in his career Williams was failing to meet the lofty expectations afforded to a recruit of his caliber at the defensive back position. During 2013 season, the move to running back proved to be a stroke of genius for the Seminoles. Although buried on the depth chart, Williams tallied 730 yards on 91 carries, and rushed for 11 touchdowns. Williams also hauled in eight receptions for 63 yards. Williams’ play in 2013 proved he was destined to be more than just a committee back. In fact, Williams’ eight yards per carry as a runner was first in the ACC and second in the NCAA.
Strengths
At 6’1, 219 pounds, Williams is a powerfully built runner. At the snap, Williams is explosive, requiring only a few steps to get to top speed, which is estimated to be in the low 4.4s. On inside runs, Williams is instinctive and decisive when attacking the hole. Possessing exceptional balance, he is able to consistently keep his feet through traffic and readily delivers punishing blows to would be tacklers. Frequently moving the pile for extra yards, Williams is an excellent runner after contact. Where Williams truly shines is in his cutback ability. A nice representative example of the scope of Williams’ athleticism and cut back ability is illustrated in the sequence below. In this play the offense comes out in 22 personnel (two running backs and two tight ends) against an eight-man box. Williams is charged with reading the defense and attacking the backside A-gap.
As Williams receives the handoff and diagnoses the play, he immediately recognizes that the defense has over pursued and that the safety (the force player on the back side of this particular play) has taken an aggressive angle of pursuit. Williams immediately hits the breaks, and demonstrating exceptional lateral agility, makes a sharp cut at speed and bounces the ball out the backside for a 20-yard gain.
That play is truly an amazing display of instincts and athleticism. Note that this type of display occurred frequently throughout Williams’s evaluation.
When running the ball outside the tackles, Williams is equally impressive. Possessing next level acceleration and speed, Williams is consistently a homerun threat anytime he touches the ball. In the open field Williams is both elusive and powerful. Utilizing a combination of jukes, spins, and stiff arms to defeat would be tacklers, Williams is difficult to take down. As a pass blocker, Williams is raw but with coaching at the next level, I believe he possesses the requisite size, strength and instincts to greatly improve.
Weaknesses
After finishing his first season at running back against collegiate competition, Williams showed tremendous potential, however, there are several factors that cause some concern. First, Williams has very limited experience at the position. As a result, it is difficult to predict how he will perform given a full complement of snaps. As a result Williams’ stamina and durability are probably the biggest question marks entering the 2013 season.
Another area of concern is his upright running style. Although there have been plenty of backs in the NFL that subscribe to this method of running, including Adrian Peterson, Brandon Jacobs, and more recently Bernard Pierce, running backs that run with this type of up-right style tend to run with poor pad level. Williams is no exception as he frequently lowers his pads moments before meeting a defender. The image below is an excellent example.
This type of running style not only leaves a greater surface area for a defender to tackle, but it also places the runner at a higher risk of injury. One final concern is Williams’ ability as a receiver. With a limited workload, Williams was usually the recipient of passes to the flats and his ability as a route runner and pass catcher are inconclusive at this time. This will be another area of his game that will be closely monitored when the Seminoles take the field this fall.
Final Verdict
Karlos Williams is everything you want in a potential stud running back for your dynasty team. He has an exceptional blend of size, speed and power. He runs with a toughness that cannot be taught and when you combine that with his exceptional athleticism and strength, you have the recipe for a feature back.
Believe it or not, one of the main reasons Williams stands out as a dynasty prospect is his lack of experience at the running back position. When you consider for a moment that if he ends this upcoming season having matched the total number of touches in the backfield from last year, his career totals at Florida State would read as follows: 355 carries and 36 receptions. Todd Gurley, considered by many to be the premiere running back in college football, is entering this season having already totaled 387 carries and 27 receptions. Williams will enter the 2015 NFL Draft having taken only half that many snaps throughout his collegiate career. Not only that but Williams received only 69 carries as a back in high school. I am sure if we included all the carries (high school & college) that 2015 draft eligible backs have taken, Williams’ tally would pale in comparison to the likes of Gurley and others.
The bottom line is that the running back position is one of the most physically demanding in all of sports, with an average career length of four to five years. The word has been out for some time that the human body has limitations. Even NFL executives recognize this, having failed to use a first round pick on a back in the last two years. Williams however could be the back that bucks the trend. A talent like Williams with feature back potential and plenty of tread left on his tires may garner a selection on day one. At this point all of this is mere speculation but if Williams’ trajectory remains consistent, his lack of experience may prove to be one of the biggest reasons why he is taken on the first day of the NFL draft and why you should have him as a must draft in your dynasty football league.
Comparables: Karlos Williams is a big back with a ferocious running style reminiscent of Brandon Jacobs, but with next level agility and acceleration.
Follow Matt Caraccio on Twitter: @Matty_OS
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