Depth Perception: NFC West Running Backs

Jeff Beran

ellingtonMy new Depth Perception series will highlight some of the more intriguing current depth chart situations around the NFL and convey my thoughts on how to approach them from a dynasty league perspective.  Sometimes I will focus on a particular team and position and other times I’ll take a broader look at positional depth across a division.  For the premiere article in this series, I’ve decided to take a macro level glance at the running back depth charts in the NFC West due to the particularly confounding landscape which currently exists and its importance in the fantasy football realm.

Arizona Cardinals

Current Depth Chart: RB1 Andre Ellington, RB2 Stepfan Taylor, RB3 Jonathan Dwyer

Andre Ellington (5-9, 199) is one of my favorite young players in the league and I’ve been working diligently to acquire him on as many dynasty teams as possible since the middle of last season.  From what I’ve seen, he has been a proverbial lightning-in-a-bottle every time he touches the ball in the same vein as fellow dynamo Jamaal Charles.  I’m hesitant to go as far as to dub him “the next Jamaal Charles” because Charles (5-11, 199) is a very special player due to his ability to excel with a full workload despite being one of the more undersized three-down backs in the NFL.  It is worth noting, however, that of all the running back depth charts in the NFC West, Ellington is the only player we can definitively say will own the primary role for his team.   His head coach, Bruce Arians, has stated this publicly and the fact that minimal additions were made to the team’s running back corps so for this off-season should serve as confirmation.   Considering that Ellington is being drafted as the RB11 according to July ADP, I’m a buyer at that price and very confident he’ll be a solid RB1 for dynasty squads for several years.

The only real question about the Cardinals backfield is which player will serve as Ellington’s backup.  Will it be fellow second-year player Stepfan Taylor or free agent acquisition Jonathan Dwyer? This will likely be answered during training camps and the preseason but at the moment, I’m investing in Taylor based on the between-the-tackle efficacy I saw him display while in college at Stanford.  In any case, neither player will have much dynasty value beyond what a standard handcuff would command.  Ellington owners will want to monitor this situation closely in the next two months.

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San Francisco 49ers

Current Depth Chart: RB1 Frank Gore, RB2 Carlos Hyde, RB3 Marcus Lattimore, RB4 Kendall Hunter

The San Francisco 49ers currently have a slight predicament as Frank Gore, who has been their steady workhorse for the past eight years, is owed $6M on the last year of his contract in 2014.  The team isn’t in trouble in terms of salary cap considerations but they are, however, tied to two other young running backs in which they’ve recently invested high draft picks.  Marcus Lattimore (fourth round, 2013) and Carlos Hyde (second round, 2014) are both unproven at this point so is San Francisco willing to roll the dice and give them a chance to take over? It’s possible. Though Gore was effective in 2013, he wasn’t particularly efficient – averaging a career low 4.1 yards per carry behind one of the best offensive lines in the league isn’t exactly a boost of momentum for the recently-turned 31 year old back.  It seems somewhat likely Gore will need to agree to take a pay cut in order to stay with the team this season.

The question with Lattimore is whether or not he’s physically ready to play.  It came out before the NFL Draft he was struggling to regain his explosiveness.  Were the details in this report the impetus behind the team’s decision to select Hyde? I suspect they were and if I were wagering on the future of this backfield, I’d place my bet on Hyde emerging as Gore’s replacement as soon as this season.  For the most part, however, I’m doing my best to avoid investing in any of these running backs this off-season.  The bell cow of a run-heavy team like the 49ers is undoubtedly a valuable commodity to own in fantasy football but when an owner must invest in multiple players, as in this case, in order to secure the prized possession, the overall value dissipates.  For their current ADP – Gore (RB43), Hyde (RB21) and Lattimore (RB49) – I’d personally lean towards a more clear-cut situation for my dynasty team.  For example, if I can draft CJ Spiller (RB16) around the same spot I’d draft Hyde and then couple him with his handcuff (Bryce Brown, RB46) in the same vicinity I’d take Gore, I’m creating value by not needing to select the third member of the trio (Fred Jackson, RB74) until much later.  For dynasty purposes, both Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James are safe to be left on (or sent to) the waiver wire at this point.

Seattle Seahawks

Current Depth Chart: RB1 Marshawn Lynch, RB2 Robert Turbin, RB3 Christine Michael

There has been a lot of buzz this off-season about Marshawn Lynch’s future with the defending champion Seahawks.  It started with his threat to holdout during minicamp and was exacerbated by the news that he was legitimately considering retirement if he isn’t offered a contract extension.  As if Christine Michael needed the value boost in dynasty community, this series of events caused it to shoot through the roof.  In fact, if you look at the ADP, you’ll notice Michael is actually being drafted ahead of Lynch in some startups.  To me, this is borderline insanity because not only is it unlikely the Seahawks would let the cornerstone of their offense simply walk away in his prime, they also have no idea if Michael is up to the task of being a capable replacement.  It’s presumptuous at best and more than likely a specious idea destined for disappointing pitfall.  Can Michael pass block? Can he do the little things coaches ask of him in order to stay in their good graces? Can he absorb the physical brutality and stay healthy for an entire season?  It seems unlikely to me as he wasn’t capable of accomplishing any of those things during his college career.

In my opinion, Michael is the single most over-inflated commodity in dynasty football right now and I’m encouraging all of his owners to sell high at this point.  His July ADP of (RB17) suggests he’s worth more than a proven veteran like Alfred Morris (RB20) and that’s simply illogical in my opinion. I’d much rather grab a young runner like Morris or Trent Richardson (RB19), both of whom have similar ADPs but have at least have proven their abilities in the NFL and can claim a bona fide status as the RB1 on their respective teams.  This way, you won’t have to worry about grabbing the handcuff (Lache Seastrunk (RB62) and Ahmad Bradshaw (RB80+), respectively) until much later.  If you happen to have an open spot on your bench, do yourself a favor and go grab Robert Turbin, who can be had very cheaply (possibly for free from the waiver wire in shallow leagues), because he still has an opportunity to carve out a role for himself, especially if Lynch walks and Michael proves not to be up to the task.  His ceiling isn’t as high as Michael’s but his floor is higher and in a conservative run-first offense, that isn’t such a bad thing.

St. Louis Rams

Current Depth Chart: RB1 Zac Stacy, RB2 Tre Mason, RB3 Benny Cunningham, RB4 Isaiah Pead

The Zac Stacy Parade really suffered a torrential downpour this off-season when the Rams decided to grab Tre Mason in the third round of the NFL Draft.  Add in the news the team has allegedly told Mason he will compete for the starting job and you’ve got yourself yet another cloudy situation in an NFC West backfield.  Stacy’s 3.9 yards per carry as a rookie weren’t exactly awe-inspiring, but they should have been enough to earn him first crack at the starting gig at the very least.  I suspect Mason’s coaches were simply trying motivate the rookie in this case as I have a hard time seeing him carving out much more than a change-of-pace role for St. Louis.  The best case scenario would be for him to serve in a complimentary capacity in some sort of reincarnation of head coach Jeff Fisher’s Thunder and Lightning days with the Tennessee Titans.

Mason doesn’t strike me as the type of player who would excel between the tackles but he is talented so it won’t surprise me if he is given a chance in the event Stacy doesn’t show improvement.  In any case, the return of quarterback Sam Bradford will give the offense a welcome boost and makes for an optimistic situation for both of these young running backs.  Benny Cunningham is worth a stash in deep leagues as he averaged surprisingly efficient 5.6 yards per carry in mop up duty last season but former dynasty darling Isaiah Pead can be safely dropped across the board.

What do you think of the backfield situations in the NFC West? Are you all in on any of these players or playing wait-and-see like the rest of us?  What are some of the other NFL depth chart situations you are most curious about? Let us know below in the comments or contact me @jefeberan on Twitter for further discourse.

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