The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. What is TY Hilton’s value this season and also beyond in a 12-team PPR league where teams start three receivers? Do the presences of Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen really move him to a situational deep threat as some are suggesting, or does he remain a key cog to that high scoring offense this year and beyond? If making him available for trade, what should I expect in return? – Drew in MD
As it currently stands, I believe TY Hilton is the best pass catcher on the Indianapolis roster. In fact, after I labeled him as a future PPR WR1 following the conclusion of his rookie season, Hilton broke out for 83 receptions, 1,086 yards and five touchdowns in a stellar sophomore campaign. Though the following can be, at least somewhat, mitigated by the knee injury to veteran Reggie Wayne, no other Colt eclipsed 52 receptions or 608 yards – clearly, it was Hilton who made the passing offense go.
As always though, there are two sides to every coin. Both Wayne and third-year tight end Dwayne Allen are set to return from their respective injuries, and free agent and former PPR WR1 Hakeem Nicks was also brought on. Coupling the above with the addition of rookie receiver Donte Moncrief and it’s easy to be somewhat skeptical of Hilton’s 2014 prospects, as the pass-catching depth chart is now as clear as mud.
Even given that I would hesitate to discount Hilton’s potential. Even with his stellar track record, Wayne remains a soon-to-be 36-year old receiver coming off a severe knee injury. Nicks has no familiarity with the offense, Moncrief is extremely raw and despite his talents, Allen could find himself employed as a blocker more than his owners would prefer. With a 2013 AIR value of 1.05, not only does Hilton the offensive continuity the others lack, he also clearly has the skills.
Continuing, I’ve spoken before about the contract situations of the various Colts receivers. Wayne is on the last year of his contract, and Nicks was only signed to a one-year deal worth under $4 million. What appears to be a convoluted cluster of players could thin out appreciably come 2015.
Given the totality of the above I think it’s fair to reason Hilton will function as a mid-to-high-end PPR WR2 in 2014, with even more room to grow in the following seasons. As such I’d prefer to be a buyer at this junction, rather than a seller – however, if you’re looking to deal, I wouldn’t settle for anything less than a mid-first round pick.
2. In my 16-team, non-PPR IDP league with 40-man rosters I recently did the following trades: I gave Julius Thomas for Andy Dalton and a first round pick in 2015 (I also have Charles Clay at tight end), and then in a second trade to fill the gap left by Thomas I traded Matt Cassel and a fourth round pick (#50 overall) for Tyler Eifert. How do you rate these trades? Do you have any suggestions for the future? – Christina in Germany
[inlinead]Despite a 2013 finish as the non-PPR TE3, the Broncos’ Julius Thomas remains as a dynasty league lightning rod. Proponents of the young pass catcher cite his athleticism, as well as an ability to score the ball (12 of his 65 receptions went for touchdowns last year). Meanwhile, detractors wonder what took so long for him to break out, and perhaps more importantly, how will he perform in the PM (Post-Manning) age?
In all likelihood Thomas’ future prospects fall somewhere in between the projected highs and lows, and I believe he’ll settle in as a perennial mid-to-high range TE1. While above average production at the tight end position is great, I’m not of the belief you lost anything significant in your first deal. The reasoning, however, has less to do with Thomas and more to do with your league format.
Recently our own Jaron Foster penned a piece about the rise and fall of positional values as they relate to different scoring systems. His findings showed that in a non-PPR setting, the big winner is the quarterback position, and the biggest losers are the tight ends (only seven of the top 100 scorers from 2013 were tight ends). Coupling this with the depth of your league, obtaining a start-able signal caller (Andy Dalton) AND a future first round pick is a great deal.
Your subsequent acquisition of Bengals tight end Tyler Eifert is merely the icing on the cake. As you already own Charles Clay (2013’s non-PPR TE7), Eifert has time to develop, hopefully turning into one of the team’s top pass catchers when positional cohort Jermaine Gresham likely leaves in 2015. Considering you didn’t spend much to obtain Eifert’s services (Vikings quarterback Matt Cassel is a fantastic off-season sell), I like this second deal even more than the first.
3. In my 10-team PPR league I’m offering Michael Floyd and Terrance Williams for DeMarco Murray and a late 2015 third round pick. Given that we start two running backs and three receivers, is this too generous? – Nate in VA
Is it too trite and convenient to say both yes and no here? Do I need to trim the hedges a bit, so to speak? Well before you all collectively flog my indecision, let me explain my position.
It’s my opinion that in deals where you’re giving up multiple pieces to acquire the best player in the deal, you’re almost always going to have to overpay. To me, Murray is the top asset of the group, so the onus is now on you to add just enough “wow factor” to make your trade partner acquiesce. If including rising sophomore Terrance Williams with the already ascending Michael Floyd is what you have to do, so be it.
Don’t get me wrong, I really like Williams – however you could just as easily nab a guy like Brian Hartline or Rod Streater, guys who could give you similar production for a fraction of the cost. Heck, you might have someone like that already on your roster! The bottom line is unless you believe T-Will is a surefire future WR1 (or high-end WR2, at the least), what are you really losing in a league that only requires 30 starting receivers?
Getting rid of Floyd is certainly tough, but when healthy Murray is the best player involved here. Therefore if being “too generous” is the cost of doing business, so be it. Owning the young Cowboys ball carrier will make your starting lineup better, and losing the above duo of receivers isn’t going to kill your aspirations of winning it all.
4. In my 12-team, half-PPR league I’m in trouble. With both Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon likely suspended, my only receivers are Keenan Allen and Justin Hunter. I’m also weak at running back with Montee Ball and Chris Johnson. I have picks 1.02 and 1.06 in my rookie draft, and I’m definitely going to take Mike Evans. I also want to take Bishop Sankey at 1.06 but I know he will be gone by then. Should I trade 1.06 and Justin Hunter for the pick 1.03 and Chandler Jones? – Matt in MA
At a time when the dreaded Rookie Fever is the main perpetrator behind dynasty’s “silly season,” Josh Gordon-itis has caused its fair share of roster rot. Indeed, between Gordon and fellow troublemaker Justin Blackmon, teams have ostensibly lost the services of a player(s) they perceived to possess elite upside. Unfortunately for Matt above, he happened to be counting on them both.
Even with that though, acquiring Tampa’s Mike Evans to pair with Keenan Allen and Justin Hunter is a good start to repairing your damaged wide receiving corps. I’m of the belief that the underrated Allen has elite-level WR1 written all over him, so if just one of Hunter or Evans pans out I think you’ll be in good shape on the pass-catching front. If they both perform to expectations, that’s even better.
Your ball carrying corps, however, is a different subject entirely. I’m coming around on Montee Ball as a viable RB1, if only due to the presence of Peyton Manning under center. But in my opinion, second option Chris Johnson isn’t even the best running back on his own roster – you could certainly use an upgrade here.
Given that I think you have three options. Firstly, you could stand pat and hope Titans’ rookie Bishop Sankey falls to you at 1.06 – if he doesn’t you could just select the 49ers’ Carlos Hyde, who should be available. I’m of the opinion that Sankey doesn’t represent any kind of mammoth upgrade on Hyde, and would be fine with him as my future RB2.
Secondly, you could look to trade pick 1.06 for some proven talent. It’s not out of the question that you could receive a player like CJ Spiller, Zac Stacy or perhaps even DeMarco Murray straight up. In a vacuum these deals might not work, but funny things can happen when you’re on the clock – doing one of these deals would provide you with both immediate and future help.
Lastly, you could use Gordon as trade bait. While it’s true his value is at an all-time low and it might just be wise to flush him, there are always owners who chase talent first and character second. Perhaps you could use Gordon in conjunction with pick 1.06 to move up a few spots and select Sankey? I’d much rather deal Gordon than Hunter, and if you could pull something like this off it would be a means to an end both for the state of your running back corps, as well as the return of your sanity.
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