The Dynasty Doctor: Knowshon Moreno’s Injury

Scott Peak

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Knowshon Moreno has gotten off to a rocky start with the Miami Dolphins. He signed a one-year deal worth $3 million in the off-season. Expectations were high, with hopes he would replicate his 2013 production as the Dolphins starter at running back. Then he showed up to OTA’s out of shape, watched Lamar Miller practice with the starters and now will have arthroscopic knee surgery.

Present pulse of the fantasy universe seems to be that Moreno is damaged goods and his value has fallen considerably. Moreno is coming off a big year, finishing 2013 as the RB4 in PPR leagues – that’s quite a turnaround for a player who was discarded long ago in dynasty leagues. Credit has been given to the arrival of Peyton Manning to the Denver Broncos and defensive attention diverted away from Moreno and I think this is a logical conclusion. The past few years, the value of Moreno in dynasty has been volatile, rising from the ashes in 2013, only to crash back down not long after the Broncos lost the Super Bowl. It is difficult to imagine Moreno getting any cheaper as a dynasty asset, but should owners target him as a buy-low or simply stay away?

[inlinead]Moreno will undergo arthroscopic knee surgery and his return has been reported to be 4-5 weeks. Details about the specific nature of the injury are not available. A torn meniscus would fit this story and estimated time to recovery. Still, dynasty owners are in the dark on it, as is often the case with injuries. If it is a torn meniscus, long-term outcomes are generally good, but depend on how much of the meniscus has been damaged. Notably, the injury is to the left knee, not the right knee that sustained a torn anterior cruciate ligament in 2011. The meniscus acts as a shock-absorber, and if it is torn, force is translated directly to cartilage and bone, increasing risk of a long-term degenerative condition. Moreno will turn 27 in July, so long-term may not even be applicable to his dynasty value or NFL career. I think the arthroscopic surgery issue is being a bit overblown, but I do think it sends up red flags about his longevity as a dynasty asset. I expect Moreno to return to play, and a lot can change between now and week one of the 2014 NFL season. I am curious to know if Moreno has a degenerative condition in the knee joint, as that would be of significant concern compared to a small meniscal tear repaired by arthroscopic surgery.

Moreno had almost 1,600 total yards, 60 receptions, ten touchdowns and 4.3 yards per carry in 2013, an impressive season for sure. But, looking deeper into his numbers, he averaged less than four yards per carry (YPC) in 9 out of 16 games (56%). In games when he rushed for more than 4.0 YPC, he only played one good NFL defense against the run (the Philadelphia Eagles who were the #10 NFL rushing defense 2013). The remaining six teams had rushing defenses that ranked #12 to #30, including four ranked 20th or worse against the run. The Dolphins 2014 season does look good for running backs, as they only play three defenses that finished in the top ten against the run in 2013.

Moreno did have ten rushing touchdowns and that sounds great, except the fact eight of them came in the first seven games. In the last nine games, he had zero rushing touchdowns seven times, and a total of two rushing touchdowns. After he got abused for 37 carries against New England in week 12, he had a total of 214 yards on 54 carries games 13 to 16, for 3.9 YPC.

In terms of fantasy point production, Moreno was heavily reliant on his role as a receiver, with 45% of his fantasy points a result of 60 receptions for 548 yards and three touchdowns. Dolphins running backs had a total of 49 receptions on 58 targets between Daniel Thomas, Lamar Miller and Marcus Thigpen in 2013. Broncos running backs had 92 receptions on 112 targets. Given Moreno is stepping away from a prolific offense that uses its running backs as receivers, to an offense that historically has not, it seems likely his production will suffer.

There has been optimism about the arrival of Bill Lazor as offensive coordinator in Miami, after he spent the 2013 season as Chip Kelly’s quarterbacks coach. It seems to be assumed the Dolphins will be running Kelly’s prolific offensive style now that Lazor has arrived. I think fantasy owners are making a big assumption that Lazor will create a Kelly offense after spending just one year on his staff. Before Lazor was hired as the Eagles quarterback coach, he spent three years as offensive coordinator with the University of Virginia Cavaliers. From  2010 to 2012, those Cavalier teams displayed a balanced offense (rushing attempts 49%, pass attempts 51%). Lazor has worked with legendary NFL coaches like Mike Holmgren, Joe Gibbs and Dan Reeves, so that is encouraging. Still, the Dolphins organization is in disarray, and his tenure as offensive coordinator may not last long if owner Stephen Ross decides to fire the entire staff next year. I’m surprised head coach Joe Philbin survived the Richie Incognito-Jonathan Martin saga without getting fired. Lazor will have to perform a miracle, and losing Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey to a hip injury isn’t a good start. In fact, the Dolphins might end up starting five new offensive linemen to start the 2014 season. That might not be so bad, given how poor the Dolphins offensive line performed in 2013, finishing as one of the worst run blocking units in the NFL, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill got sacked an NFL-high 58 times. It might also surprise some that, when Lazor was offensive coordinator for the Eagles, his running backs weren’t heavily targeted as receivers, with a total of 64 receptions on 76 targets, most of which went to LeSean McCoy.

There is a lot of concern amongst fantasy players about Moreno’s need for arthroscopic surgery, but I’m more concerned that his 2013 season was a mirage. I don’t think Moreno is anything more than an average NFL running back, with a long history of injuries, going from a dream team to a dumpster fire in Miami. While the price to acquire Moreno is far less expensive then most running backs coming off a top five season, I am still not a buyer. Moreno is heavily reliant on the receiving component of his game, and I’m not sure the Dolphins offense is prolific enough to sustain this production. I suppose Tannehill could check down, but he only targeted his running backs 58 times in 2013, and Reggie Bush could only manage 35 receptions in Tannehill’s 2012 rookie season. In fact, the Dolphins finished the 2013 season last in targets (58) and 30th in receptions to running backs. Only Washington and San Francisco running backs had fewer receptions.

There is no question Moreno is cheap right now, but I’m not buying him. I don’t think he comes close to his 2013 production, if he even gets the chance. Only $1.25 million of his current contract is guaranteed, and Moreno is a free agent in 2015. The Dolphins have $15 million in salary cap space according to overthecap.com, and could afford to absorb Moreno’s salary if he got cut. Moreno might not even have a team in 2015. Dynasty owners of Moreno would be justified in taking best available offers for him. I would advise dynasty owners who don’t own Moreno to stay away from him.

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