Instant Analysis: Dorial Green-Beckham lands in Oklahoma

Ryan McDowell Posted On July 4, 2014

dgb

Editor’s Note: This article is a Dynasty Scouts exclusive. Remember, our Dynasty Scouts section focuses on the stars of tomorrow, with a laser focus on High School recruits and College players who look to have the talent to be future assets in dynasty leagues and have value today in devy leagues.

The curious case of Dorial Green-Beckham continued on Thursday with the report that he has enrolled and will join the football team at the University of Oklahoma. Before I delve into the latest news surrounding one of the most talented players in all of college football, I’ll suggest you read Leo Paciga’s excellent write up of the one known as DGB, which followed Missouri’s dismissal of Green-Beckham from their football team.

Leo gives us a detailed look back at the events that preceded Green-Beckham’s departure from Missouri on April 12, so I’ll take over the story from there. Although the move was surprising to many, it was totally deserved based on the reports that have been made public. The popular assumption was Green-Beckham would enroll in a FCS school, which would allow him to play immediately. This would not be the case if he transferred to another FBS program. Playing for one of the smaller schools of the FCS is the same path chosen by other players who have found themselves in a similar situation to Green-Beckham. In June of 2012, Georgia running back Isaiah Crowell was arrested on a drug charge and subsequently dismissed from the Bulldog’s program. He opted to enroll on FCS school Alabama State and played for them in 2012 and 2013 before heading off to the NFL and the Cleveland Browns. Current Colts wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers also went the FCS route when he suited up for Tennessee Tech during his final college season. The University of Tennessee had suspended Rogers after failing multiple drug tests. Both of these players had once been considered as top NFL prospects, but after their off field issues and small school competition, each went undrafted and had to settle for signing as undrafted free agents. Maybe Green-Beckham considered this when making his decision and opting not to attend FCS school Eastern Illinois, as was rumored.

[inlinead]After the Eastern Illinois rumors were dashed, there were multiple reports that Green-Beckham planned to simply stay at Missouri as a student and prepare for the 2015 NFL Draft on his own. This made very little sense as there is almost no history of any player successfully making this difficult transition. After Southern California wide receiver Mike Williams failed on his attempt to enter the NFL Draft after his sophomore season, he was forced to sit on the sidelines and wait a full year until he was eligible for the 2005 NFL Draft. Williams was still chosen tenth overall by the Detroit Lions, but was a bust as an NFL player.

Having slammed doors number one and two, Green-Beckham finally made a move on Thursday and it was a big one as he joined one of the top college football programs in the country, the Oklahoma Sooners. Reports of the Sooners’ interest in the troubled former Tiger began to leak a few weeks ago and DGB must have felt like he’d won the lottery. If the Sooners would agree to take him on, he’d finally have someone to go to bat for him. Clearly, the school would push for him to regain his 2014 eligibility and be able to play immediately. Even if that fails, he’d still have the opportunity to practice everyday with one of the top up and coming quarterbacks in college and to learn from one of the game’s best in Bob Stoops. This is a best-case scenario for Green-Beckham.

Sure enough, it quickly became a reality after Green-Beckham visited campus Thursday. By the end of the day, he was officially a member of the Sooners’ program. The next step shouldn’t surprise anyone as reports leaked of the school’s plan to pursue a waiver seeking the reinstatement of Green-Beckham’s 2014 eligibility. As you might have heard, the NCAA is not the easiest organization to work with and considering the Sooners have no real basis for the appeal, it seems to be a long shot.

I’ll base the rest of this on the idea that Green-Beckham and the Sooners will lose their appeal and he will not be eligible to play until the 2015 season. As I said earlier, he still gains the advantage of having top competition to practice against and top coaching to learn from. He will be under a heavy spotlight throughout the season, which will be another advantage for him, as it will provide him the chance to prove he can overcome his past troubles. Of course, if he makes another mistake like he did at Missouri, be it drug related or other brushes with the law, that could certainly signal the end of his career.

My prediction is that DGB never suits up for the Sooners. Instead, he practices and improves everyday. He takes advantage of the stage he’ll have with Oklahoma and maintains his high draft stock and he declares for the 2015 NFL Draft at the conclusion of the college football season. This leads to one more benefit of landing with the Sooners. Rather than having to host his own pro day (those never seem to go well) Green-Beckham will have the chance, if he does declare for the draft, to participate with his Oklahoma teammates in what would be one of the highest attended pro days next spring.

If you are in a devy league and already own Green-Beckham, the best thing to do is hold and hope he can stay out of trouble. I would not be a buyer with the past poor decision making he’s displayed, especially with the recent issues of Josh Gordon and Justin Blackmon punishing dynasty owners. For those of you in shallow devy leagues, featuring an annual one round draft, I would not consider DGB. There are twelve other players I’d rather have at this point, as evidenced by our devy rankings here at Dynasty Scouts. The one situation where I would consider adding him to my roster would be in a deeper devy league, which would include a draft of three rounds, or more. In that case, Green-Beckham would present a value in the second round, outside of the top 15 players overall.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.