Off-Season IDP Watch

Steve Wyremski

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IDP leagues can be won with some preemptive off-season pickups or trading for players who are on the rise given OTA or draft changes the masses have not picked up on yet. Often, things like a scheme change, role change or injuries are happening – these are not often easy to evaluate. However, there may be significant value to be had, even in the deepest of leagues.

Given the some off-season changes, here are some players who all IDP owners should be watching:

Prince Shembo, ILB ATL

In OTAs, the Falcons decided to move Shembo from outside linebacker to inside linebacker. It appears that original plan was to use him on the edge in their new 3-4 scheme, but this change is for the better for IDP owners. He’s a pass-rushing force and Coach Mike Nolan figures to create pressure with blitzing linebackers from various positions. Soon after this switch, Sean Weatherspoon ruptured his Achilles leaving an opening at an inside starting position. Many are pumping up Joplo Bartu as the value bump, but given his versatility and natural talent (he fell to the fourth round in the 2014 NFL Draft due to off-the-field issues), Shembo is an under the radar player who could see a significant value bump over the next few months.

Dannell Ellerbe, LB MIA

Ellerbe put together a solid 2013 season for IDP purposes as the Dolphins’ middle linebacker, finishing as a LB3 in most formats. However, he was horrible defending the run as the Dolphins finished in the bottom third of the league. Because of that, the coaching staff decided to move Ellerbe to the strongside and Koa Misi to the middle. With that, Ellerbe’s value takes a big hit, while Misi sees an immediate rise. Long-term, I wouldn’t expect Misi to be a fixture in the middle, but for 2014 this looks to be the case. If you can still move Ellerbe based on last season’s finish, now’s the time to do it as he’s going to be nothing more than a spot play.

Jacquian Williams, WLB NYG

Jesse Armsteadonce compared Williams to himself. Now after two seasons, that comparison may be starting to take form. With a majority of snaps on the strongside thus far in his career, Williams is currently working as the Giants’ starting weakside linebacker. Williams is solid in coverage (he previously played in sub-packages), so now with the potential addition of base snaps, he’s situated for an every down linebacker role in 2014. With added muscle and a solid showing in the base and subpackages in OTAs, there’s IDP potential here. He’s a must add if still out there on the wire.

Phillip Thomas, SS WAS

[inlinead]After being drafted in the fourth round in 2013, Thomas missed his rookie season with a season-ending Lisfranc injury. He recently returned to the field and starts as the back up to Brandon Merriweather. While he’s slated with the second-team defense, he’s feeling great and is expected to compete for the starting spot. He still must prove he’s healthy, but Thomas’ physical nature could make him a valuable IDP asset should he win the job.

Vincent Rey, MLB CIN

Fellow writer Eric Olinger mentioned this previously, but I’ll reiterate given the potential IDP implications this could have. Rey worked with the first team defense ahead of Rey Maualuga in OTAs. That doesn’t mean that Rey is the entrenched starter, but he actually also outplayed Maualuga in 2013. Despite that, Marvin Lewis continues to stick with Maualuga as his middle linebacker. Maybe this OTA shift is a sign that the coaching staff finally realizes that Rey is the better player, though. It’s something to continue to watch through training camp. Rey was a beast as a starter in 2013 and if he grabs this job, he’ll immediately become a solid linebacker option with a realistic expectation for LB2 production.

Jamari Lattimore, ILB GB

Lattimore, not Brad Jones, ran as the starting inside linebacker with the first team defense in OTAs. In 2013, Lattimore started four games and put together 16 tackles, two sacks and three assists over that time. Not spectacular, but decent. He didn’t play every down in those starts, but played 60 to 80 percent of the team’s snaps. If he wins a starting job, he’ll be a worthy add in deep leagues given his upside. The coaching staff is still sticking with the view that Jones is their starter, but Jones is mediocre and has been outplayed by Lattimore. The fact Lattimore is seeing more times in OTAs is encouraging. Keep an eye on this situation.

Keenan Robinson, ILB WAS

With London Fletcher retired, there’s an opportunity at the starting inside linebacker spot next to Perry Riley. Given the lack of additions via free agency or the draft, Robinson is the favorite. However, he’s still making his way back from multiple pectoral injuries. He hasn’t played in about a year and a half, so there’s a bit of rust he’s still working through. Despite that, he saw action with the starters alongside Riley in OTAs. He was once a highly touted IDP prospect, but Robinson’s injuries over the last two years have left him under the radar. Coach Jay Gruden certainly likes what he sees, “he’s continued to know his assignments obviously, and then athletically, sideline-to-sideline you’re not going to see a prettier athlete running from sideline-to-sideline.” We should too given the opportunity.

Blidi Wreh-Wilson, CB TEN

In 2014, Wreh-Wilson appears to be the favorite start next to Jason McCourty as Alterraun Verner’s replacement. Verner was a top ten cornerback option before leaving via free agency, so there is nice production potential here. Wreh-Wilson will face competition from Coty Sensabaugh, but he’s penciled in as the starter. Given Wreh-Wilson can be found on the wire in many corner-required leagues, he’s worth stashing see how things shake out in camp. He should see tackle opportunities with McCourty on the otherside.

Matt Elam, SS BAL

At this time last season, many expected Elam to be a top rookie safety option. Snaps at free safety as a rookie severely hampered his IDP value in 2013, though. In 2014, he’s set to assume the starting strong safety position. That should result in more tackle opportunities and, in turn, more IDP production. If you can snag him for a reasonable price, now is the time to grab him.

Terrell McClain, DT DAL

Over the past few weeks, significant buzz is building for McClain. He’s a fourth year pro who’s done little in his NFL career, but he may have found a home with the Cowboys. Henry Melton will certainly be a starter in the middle, but it appears that McClain may win the other spot given his showing thus far. Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli worked wonders with George Selvie last year and is known for putting together fantastic defensive lines, so don’t be surprised if McClain sticks. In deep defensive tackle required leagues, this is a guy to watch.

Allen Bailey, DE KC

Bailey has put on ten plus pounds this offseason and, reportedly, possesses the same burst despite the added weight. With Tyson Jackson moving on in free agency, Bailey is set to start in 2014 as he’s running ahead of free agent addition Vance Walker. He saw spotty action late in 2014, but was disruptive and showed potential in limited action. The 3-4 base scheme will naturally limit his IDP ceiling, but in deeper leagues Bailey is a viable addition.

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