Good Things Come to Those Who Wait

Eric Hardter

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The NFL Draft remains one of our favorite times of the year, in my opinion, solely due to the possibility of great expectations. When the stars align in such a manner that the talent of our favorite players is able to marry into a great situation, the perfect storm has already begun brewing in our dynasty subconscious. Simply put, the possibility for robust rookie-year production has already seemingly evolved into certainty.

But as we all know not every rookie finds himself in an enviable locale. I’m not talking about the proficiency of the offense, as such things are subject to change on an almost annual basis – instead, I’m referring to the depth chart. Many of these freshmen footballers appear blocked off from any type of year one statistical goodness, and it’s my belief we can let it color our long-term outlooks more than we should.

To that last point, it becomes imperative to understand the contract situations of the teammates ofthese rookies in question. Even if year one production might appear impeded, the contractual landscape of the team could dictate a bump in downstream output. Put succinctly, based on likely roster attrition where do these rookies seem likely to stand in year two or beyond?

I’m looking to answer that very question. Shown below is a listing of players drafted in the first three rounds whose destinations might not seem initially ideal, but could change in as soon as a year. Also included is a list of their competition, as well as a brief summary of the situation.

Let’s get started!

Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson, WR JAX

Draft Selections: Round 2, Pick 7 (#39 overall) and Round 2, Pick 29 (#61 overall)

Main Antagonists: Cecil Shorts III and Justin Blackmon

Summary: With the strong likelihood of Blackmon missing the entire 2014 season (and perhaps more), the Jaguars wasted no time in finding his successors. While that story grabbed the off-season headlines, of similar importance is the contract status of presumed WR1 Shorts. 2014 currently stands as the last season of Shorts’ rookie deal, and while it’s rumored the Jags are working on an extension we remain no closer to an end-game as of yet. If Shorts isn’t re-signed, both Lee and Robinson could wind up starting come 2015.

Jordan Mathews, WR PHI

Draft Selection: Round 2, Pick 10 (#42 overall)

Main Antagonists: Jeremy Maclin, Riley Cooper, Darren Sproles and Brent Celek

Summary: Though the Eagles’ stable of pass catchers seems crowded, this stands as deception at its finest. Maclin was signed to a one-year, “prove it” deal and should he continue his underwhelming ways he’s likely to depart come 2015. Cooper, another pedestrian talent in his own right, was also signed to a five-year, $22.5 million dollar contract this off-season. However, only $10 million of that money was guaranteed, with $4 million already paid out as a signing bonus and $2.5 million available in performance bonuses – it would be no great sunken cost to cut him following 2015. Following his recent deal Sproles only has $2.5 million remaining in guaranteed money, and Celek is rumored to have to accept a re-structured agreement to remain in the City of Brotherly Love. If he plays to his potential, Mathews should easily emerge as the offense’s top pass catcher come 2015.

Davante Adams, WR GB

Draft Selection: Round 2, Pick 21 (#53 overall)

Main Antagonists: Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Jarrett Boykin

Summary: Adams stands as the poster child for the “talent over situation” crowd. Though he seems likely to open the 2014 season as the fourth option at best, 2015 could be the difference between night and day. Amazingly enough the trio of Nelson, Cobb and Boykin are all currently playing out the final seasons of their respective contracts, and as of yet there remain no tangible signs of progress with regards to new deals. It’s rumored that the Packers will try to keep at least one of Nelson or Cobb, and perhaps both – however, Ted Thompson is a GM we trust, and he has a strong track record with early-round receivers. Adams wasn’t selected in the second round to sit for long.

Cody Latimer, WR DEN

Draft Selection: Round 2, Pick 24 (#56 overall)

Main Antagonists: Wes Welker, Emmanuel Sanders and Andre Caldwell

Summary: I didn’t include star receiver Demaryius Thomas or stud tight end Julius Thomas above because I believe they’ll obtain new contracts to stay in Denver, but it’s also pertinent to note that each is in the final year of his rookie deal. Welker, on the other hand, stands primed to play out the final year of his deal in 2014 and move onto greener pastures. Sanders signed a new deal, but with Welker moving on he seems likely to assume slot duties in 2015. Caldwell, another middling talent in his own right, was only signed to a two-year, $3.45 million contract and remains no impediment should Latimer progress into Eric Decker 2.0.

Carlos Hyde, RB SF

Draft Selection: Round 2, Pick 25 (#57 overall)

Main Antagonists: Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Marcus Lattimore

[inlinead]Summary: Similar to Green Bay above, San Francisco’s ball carrying corps could see total upheaval come 2015. Gore and Hunter are each in the final years of their respective contracts, and given their age (Gore) and skill-set (Hunter), it seems GM Trent Baalke spent an early pick on Hyde for a reason. Lattimore remains as the wild card, but rumors of his failure to achieve 100% health loom large with regards to his future potential.

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA

Draft Selection: Round 2, Pick 31 (#63 overall)

Main Antagonists: Brian Hartline and Rishard Matthews

Summary: Say what you want about Landry’s skill-set (I’m of the belief he’s too small and slow to make a real impact), but his blueprint for success isn’t as convoluted as it seems on the surface. DLF favorite Hartline will have exhausted the guaranteed portion of his contract following the 2014 season, and despite the criminally underrated nature of his game it’s no guarantee he’ll return. Matthews, meanwhile, is only owed $1.23 million over the next two years – if he continues to disappoint he might not make it to 2015 in a Dolphin uniform.

Donte Moncrief, WR IND

Draft Selection: Round 3, Pick 26 (#90 overall)

Main Antagonists: Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, TY Hilton and Da’Rick Rogers

Summary: Adding tight ends Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener to the mix and it’s hard to get excited about the prospects of any of the Indy pass catchers. Once again, however, it behooves us to dig deeper. Wayne is in the last year of his contract and Nicks was only signed to a one-year deal. Hilton remains a candidate for extension, but is only signed through 2015. Rogers, a head-case likely on his last straw, is also only signed through 2014, although he’s been tabbed as an exclusive-rights free agent for 2015. Nevertheless, this depth chart could thin out in a hurry, much to Moncrief’s benefit.

Terrance West, RB CLE

Draft Selection: Round 3, Pick 30 (#94 overall)

Main Antagonist: Ben Tate

Summary: Though he remains supremely physically gifted, Tate’s injury concerns limited him to an unexpectedly small off-season contract. Signed for only two years, Tate remarkably only has $1 million guaranteed left on his contract. Should he fail to perform this year, be it due to skill or injury, West could function as the primary ball carrier sooner rather than later.

Jerick McKinnon, RB MIN

Draft Selection: Round 3, Pick 32 (#96 overall)

Main Antagonist: Adrian Peterson

Summary: Let’s not put the cart before the horse here – when healthy Peterson remains one of the league’s best running backs. With that said the last portion of his prorated signing bonus is scheduled for 2015, at which point he’ll likely be asked to restructure or leave (he’s currently set to make $31.5 million in 2016-17). Two years might seem like an eternity to wait in the life cycle of a running back, but it’s entirely possible that’s when McKinnon will get his shot.

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eric hardter