DLF’s Rankings Roundtable

I started doing the Rankings Roundtable series early in the off-season, but I took a short hiatus from writing it. The series was a fan-favorite, but much like the business model of the McDonalds “McRib,” I had to offer it at a limited time only. Luckily, for you the reader, there is actually more nutritional value in this article than there is in a “McRib.”

For those of you unfamiliar with the series, I talk about players who are being ranked at a high variance. In short, I view our rankings and determine which player is being valued extremely different by a certain ranker. Many times, the ranker in question has a perfectly legitimate reason to rank said player higher, or lower, than the other DLF members. Often times other rankers agree with the ranker being interviewed. It makes for an entertaining and informative discussion.

Today, I interview Jeff Miller, Eric Olinger and Ryan McDowell.

Jeff Miller

KS: The consensus DLF staff ranking of Cordarrelle Patterson is WR20. In fact, if you take exclude you, Jeff Berran and myself, the other rankers have Patterson at a wide receiver average of 12.4. Obviously there are many that are very high on him, yet you are not. You rank Patterson as your WR32. Meaning you wouldn’t feel very comfortable with him as your WR3. Can you explain your ranking of Patterson?

JM: People see Patterson through the most rosy of rose colored glasses. They see speed and quickness and they think about that absurd Week 14 game against the Ravens played in six feet of snow. Then they rank him as though he has already arrived. In the meantime, they ignore the fact he is a painfully poor route runner. They overlook how new offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s offense is a poor fit for Patterson’s skill set (call him a deep threat all you want, but it doesn’t make it so).

The moral of the story is Patterson is a work in progress. He logged very little time, and had very little success at Tennessee. Aside from a half dozen big plays, he was a complete and utter non-factor in 2013. Now defensive coordinators have had an entire offseason to figure out how to stop the screen passes and gimmick runs.

Could Patterson become a top-12 receiver? Of course. But considering how far he has to go, ranking him like one is absurd.

KS: In dynasty, we try to project what players will do, not what they have done. Patterson surely has the skillset to become an elite wide receiver, and players with his type of upside are valuable commodities. How valuable of an asset is he? As Jeff said, some of our DLF brethren have ranked Patterson as if they are sure he will accomplish the feats he is capable of acheaving. In my opinion, this leaves little room, in perceived value, for failure. If you draft him as an elite receiver, and he continues to struggle to earn playing time, you’re left with a huge hole on your roster. I’m more comfortable drafting Patterson as a WR3, and letting him develop, while my true elite receivers score fantasy point in the meantime.

Eric Olinger

[inlinead]KS: The DLF staff has a consensus ranking of RB10 for CJ Spiller, but your ranking of him is much lower. Ranking him as the RB22 means you barely feel comfortable having Spiller as the second best back on your team. With Fred Jackson aging, there isn’t much in Spillers way of being a ‘workhorse back’. Can you explain why you’d rather have guys like Ryan Mathews and Christine Michael over Spiller?

EO: Simply put, I don’t trust Spiller. His talent is undeniable and if you remember, I was super high on him last off-season. In my Over/Under article I predicted he would approach 1,800 total yards. The problem is he has some Felix Jones in his DNA. The guy is constantly dinged up and his production suffers if he doesn’t have all of his game changing speed at his disposal. Ironically, I have Mathews ranked above him who went through similar things two years ago. He was being way over-drafted, like Spiller. Got injured and under-performed, like Spiller. Then, Mathews bounced back in a major way in 2013. Can Spiller bounce back? Sure. But after hearing the Bills attempted to trade up for Carlos Hyde in the draft, it tells me they won’t ever trust Spiller to be “the guy.” I ranked him behind Christine Michael because of age, upside, and projected situation for 2015. I’d rather have the potential Seahawk featured player than an injury prone RBBC member. That’s why I can’t get on board with Spiller as anything more than a low end RB2. Which means I won’t end up with him on too many of my teams because someone will take him before I am comfortable.

KS: I am also excited for the prospect of Michael being the Seahawks feature back of the future. He’s not someone that I’d prefer to Spiller at this point, though. Eric compares Spiller to Mathews, and I believe they have even more in common. Much like the Bills attempted to bring in another back via the draft and subsequently traded for Bryce Brown, the Chargers brought in the services of Danny Woodhead this time last year. Woodhead was (and is) considered to be a much better back than Brown. I share in many of the concerns Eric has, but I simply cannot agree with the RB22 ranking. I have Spiller ranked as my RB9.

Ryan McDowell

KS: Normally I inquire about players ranked well outside the range of the consensus rankings. Today I’d like to ask you about a player you have ranked only two to three spots away from the other rankers, Calvin Johnson. Most people believe Johnson is far and away the best dynasty asset. He is relatively young by elite wide receiver standards, plays on a pass heavy offense, and puts up numbers rarely equaled by his peers. Can you explain why you have him ranked as your WR4?

RM: As you might know if you’ve seen my rankings, read my Tweets or articles or taken a peek at any of my many dynasty teams, I am one of the growing group of ageists when it comes to building my dynasty teams. I like to think I have a level of balance that some lack, meaning I won’t immediately look to sell any player once they hit a certain age. I also don’t cross out any player over twenty-eight years old before a draft even starts, but I don strongly consider a player’s age when ranking, drafting or trading.

When considering the ranking of Lions’ wide receiver Calvin Johnson, age is really the only knock on him, when comparing him to some of the other top tier wideouts in the game. I’m not going to try and come up with a long list of negatives about Johnson’s game, because there simply aren’t any. He’s one of the best to play the game in recent memory and I’d be glad to have him on my dynasty roster. With that being said, he has at least two years on the other members of the Big Five, including AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. This does not mean that each of these players don’t have their own blemishes as well, but considering the abuse that Johnson takes with constant double or even triple teams, along with that two or three year difference, I would prefer one of the younger options. Evidently I’m not alone either. In one of my very competitive dynasty leagues, I own Johnson and have attempted to trade him even up for the other receivers mentioned above. No dice on any attempt and the other owners didn’t even seem to consider the offer.

KS: This is a ranking I simply cannot agree with. While Johnson may be a couple years older than the other wideouts Ryan listed, he could conceivably play football longer than any of them. Most hall of fame caliber players play longer than “plain ole superstars” (that hurt to say). I view Johnson as the perfect commodity in dynasty and would not trade him for any single player. He simply has no red flags. He’s yet to decline, plays in a pass happy offense and is the leading a group of transforming robots who’s only goal is to build an empire which spans the universe.

Each of these opinions are valuable, even if you don’t agree with them. Ryan has experienced much success with his “ageist” strategy. Jeff is more comfortable going into a fantasy season with players who have proven more than a player like Patterson. Eric subscribes to the theory “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.” Each strategy works in dynasty fantasy football, but does not work for everyone. Understanding the reason behind a ranking exposes the strategy of the ranker which is invaluable.

Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick. Follow the fine gentlemen who helped me today: @FFJeffM, @OlingerIDP and @RyanMc23

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