The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1. In my 14-team non-PPR league I traded Brandon Marshall for Torrey Smith and picks 1.07 and 2.12 in our rookie of dynasty league. Currently I have Julio Jones, Cordarrelle Patterson and Markus Wheaton as my top options to go along with Smith (we start two to three receivers). I was just wondering if you felt that was a good deal? – Christopher in NJ
Arguably the biggest football news of the week was the Chicago Bears extending WR1 Brandon Marshall’s contract. Previously set to use 2014 as a contract year, Marshall is now ostensibly signed through the 2017 season, with guaranteed money owed through the 2015 season ($22.3 million in total). Given the high-powered nature of the Marc Trestman-led offense, this can only be viewed as a boon to Marshall owners everywhere.
Another interesting wrinkle of this signing is that, injuries aside, it guarantees the “bromance” between Marshall and quarterback Jay Cutler (also recently extended) will endure. As many recall, when Cutler missed time in 2013 Marshall played well with backup Josh McCown, but not quite to the same level. This isn’t terribly surprising, as in the three years Marshall has played with Cutler (in both Denver and Chicago), his previous yearly average stood at a robust line of 108/1,366/8.
In an excellent piece from our friends at 4-for-4, CD Carter broke down the difference in Marshall’s efficiency when both Cutler and McCown were under center. As it turned out Marshall was nearly 12% more efficient on a per-target basis with Cutler (PPR setting), putting a quantitative stamp on a qualitative belief. Continuing, applying my AIR metric to Marshall’s statistics when being targeted by Cutler sees the pass catcher’s ratio jump to 1.14, up from his yearly average of 1.06.
Though Marshall recently turned 30, he stands as a monstrous 6’4” and 230 pounds, and it’s been observed that big-bodied, non-speed based receivers can prosper longer. As such it wouldn’t shock me at all to see him post another three to four years of elite, WR1-level output. Though I like Ravens receiver Torrey Smith, he has a long way to go to achieve Marshall’s levels of success (even in your non-PPR setting) – to make this trade work out in your favor I think you’ll need to nail those draft picks.
[inlinead]2. In my 10-team, 2QB league I think I’m in a three-year window to win a title and am thinking of trying to acquire a younger quarterback to pair with Russell Wilson. I’m thinking of offering Carson Palmer and Ben Tate to acquire Philip Rivers. Is this a good idea? – Jim in ME
As many of the DLF faithful know, I have strong opinions about the dynasty viability of Chargers signal caller Philip Rivers. Put simply, he’s a guy who played at a high level for several years, but we let the stink of one bad season ultimately taint our thoughts of him. Even though he bounced back to the tune of finishing as the overall QB6 in 2013, this persistent disrespect continues to manifest itself in the form of anecdotal opinion (“he’s a better QB2 than a QB1”) and ADP (147.7, QB18).
Because of this, I believe Rivers stands as one of the best buy-low candidates in all of dynasty football. Playing the position of greatest longevity, his mere 32 years of age represent the possibility of four to five-plus more seasons of top-end output that can be had for pennies on the dollar. As such, this is exactly why I’d advise you against proposing this trade.
To be clear, I absolutely believe you should attempt to trade for Rivers. However, given his current price point I actually believe you’re coming in too strong, even despite the 2QB league format. By virtue of offering Carson Palmer and off-season riser Ben Tate, I think you’re potentially giving away too much.
Instead, I’d first try to offer away Palmer and a late second round pick. If you don’t have one this year, a 2015 pick should work as well. Doing so still gives you an excellent chance to land your QB2, and also means you could have Tate’s services in a year where Cleveland stands to run the ball a ton – in my opinion this gives you the best chance to win without parting with a potentially valuable ball carrier.
3. What is your opinion of Brandon Bolden versus Stevan Ridley? In researching the two, they are both the same size/weight. Bolden is 24 and Ridley is 25. Bolden averages 4.9 yards-per-carry versus Ridley’s 4.3. Bolden averages 7.2 yards-per-catch versus 4.4 for Ridley. Bolden did not fumble last year while Ridley coughed it up four times. Lastly, Bolden is a restricted free agent in 2015 while Ridley is unrestricted. When you look at these stats it would appear that Bolden is the superior talent of the two. – Dennis in FL
At a cursory glance, it’s easy to see where Dennis is coming from. During the 2013 season, Brandon Bolden outperformed his significantly more ballyhooed New England counterpart Stevan Ridley on a per-touch basis. Digging deeper, however, we begin to see a few more blemishes on Bolden’s resume.
First and foremost is the issue of usage – over 12 games Bolden only touched the ball a mere 76 times for a paltry average of 6.3 touches per game. Continuing, he only recorded double digit touches in three games, and only exceeded 10 carries once. Ridley, conversely, has proven the ability to carry the load with 290 carries in 2012 (4.4 yards-per-carry) and 178 last year.
Peeling back another layer of this metaphorical onion we can see it’s not Ridley who functions as Bolden’s direct comparison, but rather fellow ball carrier Shane Vereen. To that end, in games where Vereen was healthy Bolden only recorded 21 of his 76 touches, or 27.6%. It appears coach Bill Belichick prefers him in the pass-catching, complementary role rather than as a true workhorse.
Given the aggregation of these factors, it’s not surprising that Ridley is popularly viewed as the significantly more valuable asset. Yes, he needs to learn to hang onto the ball better but if Tiki Barber was fixed, Ridley can be as well. Given the departure of LeGarrette Blount, I view Ridley as the favorite to lead the Patriots running backs in touches in 2014, flirting once again with RB2 viability. Moving forward, should he wind up leaving Foxboro (a likely best case scenario given Belichick’s short fuse), it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him have a Michael Turner-esque second act.
4. In my 12-man, half-PPR keeper league I have Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Gio Bernard and DeMarco Murray. I need to decide between Murray and Bernard for my final keeper. Who would you keep, and also could you also explain how we should adjust our dynasty rankings for keeper formats? – James in British Columbia
To answer the initial part of your question I think it makes sense to work backwards and deal with your latter query first. Simply put, it depends on the type of league in which you play. In addition to the standard set of qualifiers (PPR versus non-PPR, TE-premium, etc.), asset valuation is also going to come down to one main question – how many players can you keep on a yearly basis?
If the answer to that question is a smaller number (four or fewer) I think it makes sense to play with more of a re-draft mentality. You want to be able able to keep players who will contribute immediately to the cause, regardless of age. Simply put, you don’t have the luxury of waiting on guys to develop.
Conversely, if you can keep five or more players I think it moves closer to a standard dynasty format. In those cases the dispersal draft will carry significantly less talent, and the players who are there will likely be of the one-to-two year rental variety. In these types of deeper formats, being able to identify young talent that could serves as the backbone of your team for years moves to the critical forefront of roster building.
Since your league falls under the “shallow” keeper format, and also since the half-PPR format slightly mitigates what Bengals running back Gio Bernard does best, I’d actually choose to keep Cowboys ball carrier DeMarco Murray. While he carries with him significant injury concerns, it’s impossible to deny that when healthy he’s a dynamic, bell-cow type back. I believe he gives you better odds to win right now, and as such would be my choice for your remaining slot.
Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27
[ad2]
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Is Kendre Miller Valued Unfairly? - April 17, 2024
- Forgotten Dynasty Veterans: Bottom Tier - April 9, 2024
- Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: How Much Should You Factor in Off-Field Issues? - April 9, 2024
