Isaiah Crowell: A Dynasty Value Debate

Jaron Foster

crowell

One of the most polarizing figures in this year’s crop of rookies is Isaiah Crowell, the running back from Alabama State who was left undrafted, but signed with the Cleveland Browns as a free agent. This former Georgia Bulldog and highly talented runner was once a prized prospect, but a host off-the-field problems led to his dismissal (or mutual parting of ways) from the Georgia football program and a subsequent disappearance from the prospect discussion in dynasty leagues. He seemingly turned his life around and performed well at Alabama State over the past two seasons, but his past transgressions proved to be enough to scare most teams away.

Owners are torn on just where to throw the dart and take Crowell in rookie drafts this year, so we decided to have a unique article today. Most of the dynasty debates you see on DLF are player vs. player, but this one will be all about value and an argument on just where Crowell should be taken.

Enjoy!

Jaron’s Case for the Late First/Early Second Round

With a name synonymous with “off-field issues,” no NFL team spent a draft pick on Crowell. Consequently, arguably the best running back in the 2014 draft class has plummeted down rookie draft boards. While it is noteworthy that 256 other players were selected during the three days of the NFL Draft, Crowell had tryouts with several teams in the previous few weeks and signed with the Cleveland Browns (for a relatively hefty signing bonus) shortly after the draft. Crowell’s transgressions cost him a much richer contract given that, by account of many top football talent evaluators, the level of his talent was at the top of his class.

So, what were these infamous transgressions?

The concerns from owners (real and fantasy football teams alike) stem from incidents that occurred following Crowell’s freshman year at Georgia. He was charged with two felony counts of illegal possession of a firearm, which were later dismissed due to lack of evidence that he even owned the weapon and he also failed a drug test. Clearly the more alarming incident was the arrest. After passing a Breathalyzer at a checkpoint after a night out with teammates, the car Crowell was driving contained a weapon for which no player had a permit. The next day, Crowell and Georgia coach Mark Richt agreed it would be best for all parties for the player to transfer.

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What hasn’t been widely publicized is the fact during his freshman year, Crowell was dealing with the deaths of his nephew and a close friend and he also became a father. Further, all charges stemming from the arrest were dropped and he has no criminal record. The decision to leave Georgia was stated by both parties, at least publicly, to be an opportunity to give Crowell a fresh start as he struggled to stay focused on football, gaining a public reputation for a poor work ethic after taking himself out of games with what were considered minor injuries. With no criminal record and no brush-ins with the law since his transfer to Alabama State (ASU), the perception of his off-field problems has been significantly overstated.

Particularly with the recent issues including DUIs for Kenny Britt and Marshawn Lynch, as well as Ray Rice and Dez Bryant for domestic violence, how a player conducts himself off the field is being scrutinized more than ever before. The problem is many throw all “character concerns” into one bucket. Knuckleheadedness, if I may invent a word here, may lead back to fines, suspensions, and generally not being on the field to produce for your fantasy team. However, questionable behavior comes in different forms and it is ill-advised to use that single bucket (including everything from failed drug tests to far more egregious actions) to project future indiscretion.

Are the aforementioned players given a pass because they have proven themselves on the field (to varying degrees), whereas Crowell is a rookie? If so, what about Ka’Deem Carey? In December 2013, he was arrested for misdemeanor assault on his pregnant ex-girlfriend. Austin Seferian-Jenkins was arrested after crashing his car in March 2013 with a blood alcohol content more than twice the legal limit. Carlos Hyde was arrested for assaulting a woman in July 2013 and was subsequently suspended by Ohio State, receiving less-than-glowing reviews from coach Urban Meyer. There are always two sides to a story and there certainly may be more to Crowell’s situation than has been publicized, but he has plenty of company with questionable character among talented rookies going high in rookie drafts.

These issues aside, addressed given the focus on Crowell’s problems more than his immense talent, we would be discussing where in the first round of rookie drafts to draft him. I have heard skill set comparisons to DeMarco Murray as well as a hybrid of former teammates LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown; however, regardless of the analogy, Crowell is a special running back. A five-star recruit out of high school, his arrival at Georgia prompted debates over whether this was the next Herschel Walker. While this is clearly high praise in Bulldog territory, it speaks to Crowell’s great combination of strength and speed necessary to be a feature back. He has demonstrated abilities in pass protection, soft hands as a receiver (though he was not in a system that utilized that skill extensively) and keeps churning for extra yards as he plays through the whistle. Patience and decisiveness allow him to find running lanes to burst through and he moves extremely well for a player with his sturdy 5’11, 244-pound frame.

Prior to all his accolades, including SEC Freshman of the Year and First-Team All-SWAC in both seasons at ASU, Crowell first displayed his talents as a freshman against a stacked South Carolina team as he made a name for himself with a 158 yard/two-touchdown game. Buffalo’s Stephon Gillmore, San Diego’s Melvin Ingram and Houston’s DJ Swearinger and Jadeveon Clowney were among the many notable names trying to stop Crowell. Below is a video clip including each Crowell’s touches during that game. At about 2:39, you see him outmaneuver Ingram before giving the slip at 3:01 to the number one overall pick in the 2014 draft. A stiff arm at 4:30 leads to a 15-yard touchdown run to cap his performance against a strong defense.

As he enters the scene in Cleveland, Ben Tate and Terrance West are tentatively at the top of the depth chart. Chris Ogbonnaya, Dion Lewis, Fozzy Whitaker and Edwin Baker will also be in training camp looking for a roster spot. Tate is well-known to be very talented but also unable to stay on the field. At least in 2014, if he’s healthy, expect Tate to be given the majority of the carries, though he hasn’t been targeted heavily out of the backfield to this point in his career. Beyond 2015, or even 2014 depending on performance of the rookies and his health, is a question mark. West is an intriguing player who put up monster statistics in college as he can take a pounding and knows how to score. He’s not particularly elusive and may not possess the skill set to be used in third down situations.

As for Crowell, though he was not drafted, Cleveland made it a priority to sign him as a free agent, giving him a sizable contract for an undrafted rookie. Though his odds are longer as an undrafted free agent, the list of players who have produced at a high level after going undrafted is lengthy: Willie Brown, London Fletcher, Arian Foster, Antonio Gates, James Harrison, Priest Holmes, Warren Moon, Willie Parker, Tony Romo, Rod Smith, Kurt Warner, Wes Welker and many more. With an owner who has been very vocal of his admiration of Crowell, on and off the field, if Crowell can demonstrate his pass protection and pass-catching abilities, he could be an explosive third-down back. Johnny Manziel and Crowell in the same backfield could have great fantasy implications.

For me, the biggest issue in taking Crowell high in rookie drafts is not his character concerns, but rather the value of doing so due to the fantasy football community’s perception of that character. In general, you haven’t had to take him early to still get him. If you have a strong sense Crowell is going to slide, by all means wait on drafting him. As we move further from the NFL Draft though, I have seen Crowell creeping up draft boards, going consistently in the top of the third round two weeks after he went undrafted. Unfortunately, off-field problems are part of Crowell’s story and to many it is a stretch to take him in the second round. He appears to carry more risk than most, if not all, other top players in the draft and to the risk-averse there are too many other options to take a chance on the undrafted free agent.

Personally, I took Crowell 1.10 in a DLF league due to a combination of factors. I had five of the top 15 picks and had already taken Eric Ebron (this is a tight end premium league) and Jordan Matthews, and I wasn’t high on the wide receivers available at that spot. After Carlos Hyde and Bishop Sankey were taken eighth and ninth, there is a big drop for running backs on my board for a combination of talent and opportunity (Jeremy Hill, another back with off-field issues, was next on my board and I grabbed him as well at 2.06 after trading down). Unable to trade down further, I decided to go for tremendous upside and took Crowell despite the perceived loss in value. While the floor is dirt-level on this pick, I felt I was in a position to take the chance.

The point here is not to dismiss the severity of being arrested on weapons charges or make excuses for not giving 100% at times on the field, neither of which Crowell has avoided speaking about. It is that a player of Crowell’s caliber on the field is worthy of being drafted ahead of the likes of top rookie running back picks Bishop Sankey or Hyde, depending on how you feel about his landing spot and competition for carries. The risk associated with Crowell, in terms of character and his undrafted free agent status, certainly bumps him down the draft board. However, I would take his upside long-term (despite overstated off-field issues) over the likes of Devonta Freeman and Ka’Deem Carey, both currently second round picks.

Ken’s Take on Taking Crowell after the Early Second Round

I have to admit Jaron makes a strong case for taking Crowell early in this article. As I told him, it would have been nice if he could have just thrown me a softball and made this easy, but alas, he did not. There’s really no doubting Crowell’s talent, the notion he was dealing with some significant demons when he made his mistakes or the fact he’s stayed out of the headlines since he was dismissed (or agreed to leave) Georgia. I’m not going to waste anyone’s time by arguing against those facts. I read that and I’m almost convinced it’s a good idea.

Almost.

The problem with taking Crowell early in the second round (or even late in the first) has nothing to do with player evaluation, character concerns or even risk tolerance. The problem here has everything to do with the one thing every shrewd dynasty owner has in spades. It’s the one thing that will take you to the top of the mountain, but could also bring you tumbling down just as fast. It’s a trait we should all strive to have, but the most dangerous one to control.

I’m talking about pride.

Since I helped start DLF in 2006, I’ve edited nearly 2,500 articles. In short, that’s a lot. In that time, I’ve seen countless player evaluations, strategy pieces, unique tools and insight to help owners dominate their fantasy leagues. When you go through that many articles and run a site for this long, much of what you do fades from the memory banks and a precious little bit tends to stick. One of the things that has stuck with me over the years were the results from a simple poll I created around five years ago. I asked the DLF faithful what the most satisfying part of being in a dynasty league was and fully expected the answer of “winning a championship” to be the runaway winner. After all, that’s why we all play this game, right? I was wrong by a wide margin as the dominating winner of the poll was something I didn’t expect – the overwhelming majority of people cited “the unearthing of a deep sleeper” as a the most gratifying part of being in a dynasty league.

That simple poll illustrates my point on Crowell. People who are in dynasty leagues want a bigger challenge than what re-draft leagues provide. They want to employ long-term strategies, get into the minds of their league mates and develop a winning formula. Let’s really get down to brass tacks here, folks. If you’re in a dynasty league and want to have long-term success, your desire is simple – you want to prove you’re smarter than your league mates. This is where that little word called “pride” gets in the way as it clouds our judgment and can truly work against us.

In the case of Crowell, we’ve been talking about him for months upon months. We’ve done evaluation after evaluation. We’ve seen video after video. We so desperately want him to be the gem of this class that we’ll move past common sense and begin to enter the realm of insanity in order to acquire him. Fact is, we’ve earmarked him as “the guy” this year. He was supposed to be the player your league mates didn’t know about. The one you sniped in the draft after the big boys like Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans were off the board. The player you took as your fellow league owners scratched their heads and wondered what you saw and they didn’t. Yep, we’re trying to be smarter than everyone else and that’s actually (quite possibly) going to make some of us look stupid in the end.

The cold, hard truth of this is Crowell went undrafted for a reason. If he was truly this transcendent talent whose past transgressions were a blip on the radar, a player who could be a bellcow for an NFL team and be the steal of the 2014 NFL Draft, some team in the NFL would have taken him. Someone in the sixth or seventh round would have rolled the dice and not taken the chance on losing him as a free agent. Instead, he was taken by a team who just signed a running back in Ben Tate and drafted another one in Terrance West. If there’s an argument to be made about taking a Browns rookie running back highly, it has to revolve around West. If the Browns didn’t have him higher on their own draft board, they wouldn’t have taken him over Crowell.

Yes, you can cite the success of players like Foster, Parker, Holmes and others, but if I was to give you a list of undrafted free agents who flamed out, you’d be reading this list until I edited the next 2,500 articles on DLF. The chances of success here are slim and the Browns have very little invested in him. Players like Carey, West, Freeman and even James White have real value tied to them in the form of a draft pick burned on them. Think about how precious those are. Teams hold on to those picks like they’re gold and don’t use them for no reason. Those players drafted will be given every chance to be successful while the undrafted free agents will have to do into camp, prove they belong and likely force their team to cut someone they invested one of their precious draft picks on. It’s a tall task most simply fail to achieve.

I’m not saying Crowell doesn’t have value or potential, because he does – but not until the late second or third rounds of rookie drafts. I’m just not willing to let stubbornness get in the way and treat him as many treated Da’Rick Rogers last year. We so badly want these players to be diamonds in the rough that we actually outsmart ourselves. We think we’ve done our due diligence while the NFL has not. Fact is, none of us were in those interview rooms. None of us have looked Crowell in the eye and asked him tough questions. None of us have the resources the NFL has to evaluate these players completely. How then, do we somehow think we know more than they do? In short, it’s one simple word.

Pride.

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jaron foster
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