Failure is Not an Option

Eric Hardter Posted On May 14, 2014

foles

There exists no shortage of metaphors when it comes to constructing a dynasty roster. In fact, my first ever DLF article compared doing just that to building a house. With that in mind – and I promise I’m getting to the point here – I’m going to offer up just one more (for now) – constructing a dynasty roster is a lot like Christmas morning.

When you were a kid, there was nothing you wanted more than to tear into that wrapping paper and open up a box which undoubtedly contained the best thing ever. You’d play with it for hours on end until it was time to eat some cookies and watch The Grinch Who Stole Christmas, at which point a funny thing often happened – you got bored of your shiny, new toy. This isn’t to say your toy became worthless, merely that it just didn’t ultimately wind up being as valuable to you as you initially thought.

I believe many dynasty assets can be viewed similarly. According to the April ADP data, there are multiple players whose respective values could be viewed as already peaking. Much like that Christmas present, you covet them now, but there’s a high likelihood your current interest just doesn’t align with their long-term outlooks.

Taking it one step further, for many of these high priced players the possibility of them not living up to the hype, or failing altogether, simply isn’t built into the present cost. During the off-season when identifying the next shiny new toys moves to the forefront, however, such notions are summarily disregarded. The movement to get younger and better stymies the uncertain voices in the backs of our heads, as we all strive to obtain that figurative Red Rider BB Gun.

In an attempt to throw a bucket of cold water on this process I’ll seek to identify players whose costs prohibit failure as an option. I’ll include each player’s current ADP, as well as his overall positional rank. Finally, I’ll discuss my rationale for each specific case, along with identifying cheaper (and potentially safer) options.

Let’s get started!

Nick Foles, QB PHI (ADP = 70.3, QB6)

To be clear, I’m actually a fan of Foles. Essentially entering the season cold, he put forward when can only be described as one of the surprise performances of the year. His 27 touchdowns to only two interceptions was easily the largest relative disparity in the league, harkening back to Aaron Rodgers’ 45/6 line during his MVP-winning 2011 campaign. However, buried within his sublime statistics is the fact he’s just not likely to replicate them.

Should he increase upon his 24.1 passing attempts per game, his efficiency is likely to drop, especially considering the loss of top receiving threat DeSean Jackson. I also have a tough time believing he’ll continue his success in the running game, as he averaged a surprising 0.72 fantasy points per rushing attempt (across 56 attempts). While Foles’ total numbers will go up should he start for the entire season, it’s tough to believe his per-game efforts will remain as high.

Cheaper alternatives include: Matt Ryan (ADP = 94.2, QB11), Jay Cutler (ADP = 129.8, QB15) and Philip Rivers (ADP = 139.7, QB18)

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Giovani Bernard, RB CIN (ADP = 13.2, RB3)

Much like with Foles, I’m a fan of Bernard as well. Functioning essentially as a part-time player, he was able to parlay 226 touches into a finish as the PPR RB13. With only the plodding BenJarvus Green-Ellis (and perhaps a rookie selection) present to siphon away touches, it stands to reason Bernard’s volume should increase come 2014.

With that said, the 4.09 yards-per-carry he put forward as a rookie was hardly the stuff of legends. He’s dynamite in the passing game, but the eight touchdowns on a relatively sparse workload aren’t necessarily replicable. By virtue of buying Bernard in the early second round of a startup draft, you’re anticipating he’ll function as a top-five ball carrier for the next five years.

Cheaper alternatives include: DeMarco Murray (ADP = 27.0, RB10), Alfred Morris (ADP = 42.30, RB14) and Shane Vereen (ADP = 43.8, RB15)

Christine Michael, RB SEA (ADP = 57.30, RB20)

I’m sure I’ll catch heat by virtue of having the audacity to insult the Teflon Michael, but I’m okay with it. Yes, he’s talented and no, in a vacuum his ADP isn’t prohibitive. However, it’s impossible to argue that, in this stage of the game, you’re buying into anything more than hype.

Michael only received 18 carries as a rookie, in large part due to the presence of workhorse starter Marshawn Lynch. Lynch (as well as backup Robert Turbin) returns in 2014 and stands likely to resume his ball-hogging ways. He could be cut prior to the 2015 season, but that’s far from a certainty. It’s also no slam-dunk that even if Michael beats out Turbin (and perhaps a free agent acquisition) he’ll function as an elite running back. But for a fifth-round startup pick on a player with no track record of success, that’s what you’re buying into.

Cheaper alternatives include: Ben Tate (ADP = 66.20, RB22), Stevan Ridley (ADP = 89.0, RB26) and Joique Bell (ADP = 93.7, RB27)

Cordarrelle Patterson, WR MIN (ADP = 18.8, WR10)

There’s no denying Patterson possesses elite measureables and immense natural physical talent. However, he remains relatively unproven as a pass catcher, amongst the other warts expertly detailed by our own Jeff Miller. Simply put, to justify this ranking he needs to perform just behind the “Big Six” receivers, as well as Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb and Keenan Allen, none of whom (save for Calvin Johnson) are much older than CP. Those are some massive shoes to fill.

Cheaper alternatives include: Michael Floyd (ADP = 27.8, WR15), Justin Hunter (ADP = 53.2, WR28) and Tavon Austin (ADP = 81.2, WR40)

Ladarius Green, TE SD (ADP = 65.7, TE5)

Similar to Patterson and Bernard above, Green needs to hold rank in order to justify his ADP. Positioned directly behind Jimmy Graham, Rob Gronkowski, Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron in the ADP pecking order, it’s tough to see Antonio Gates’ likely heir breaking into that hierarchy anytime soon. Moreover, several of his positional cohorts currently being selected later have already proven the ability to function as TE1 options. Green definitively flashed talent as a sophomore in 2013, but to this point remains more of a tease than a breakout candidate. In the ever-deepening pool of positional talent, you can spend more wisely.

Cheaper alternative include: Jordan Reed (ADP = 67.2, TE6), Tyler Eifert (ADP = 92.5, TE10) and Zach Ertz (ADP = 93.2, TE11)

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.