2014 NFL Draft IDP Winners and Losers: Day One

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After round one of the NFL draft, there a number of position movements happening and IDP rookie values are starting to shape the 2014 IDP landscape. Knowing the opportunity for a handful of players, here are some initial winners and losers after the first day:

Winners

Sio Moore, LB OAK

With Oakland drafting Khalil Mack, it’s a safe assumption he plays a Von Miller type of role. In other words, he’ll play the strongside linebacker spot in a two-point stance on early downs and put his hand in the dirt in passing situations. Mack is likely to be classified as a linebacker and, as a result, will have a LB2 ceiling in balanced and tackle heavy leagues.

Most importantly, Sio Moore is the winner here with Mack assuming the strongside spot. Mack at this position should push Moore to the weakside spot and bump the aging Kevin Burnett out as a starter.

If the Raiders use Mack at defensive end (which I believe to be a longshot), it wouldn’t help Moore. In that situation, Mack would be the winner as a defensive end.

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Justin Gilbert, CB CLE

Playing opposite Joe Haden, Gilbert will be a prime rookie corner rule option. With teams fading away from Haden given his premier coverage ability, Gilbert is liable to see a high volume of tackle opportunities. He’s a perfect 2014 option at corner given the probability of having a solid IDP season. Some (ahem, Jacob Feldman) question his tackling ability, but that shouldn’t matter given the opportunities he’ll face in 2014 as a rookie.

Deone Bucannon, SS ARI

Bucannon walks into a starting spot at strong safety and should be the top safety selected in rookie drafts. One reader recently called him this year’s Jonathan Cyprien and that’s a pretty accurate description. Bucannon is a solid tackler who will walk into a pristine situation with the potential to be a top IDP performer in his rookie year. He couldn’t have stepped into a better situation.

Chandler Jones, DE NE

The addition of Dominique Easley will take the pressure off of others on the Patriots’ defensive line – most notably Chandler Jones. Easley creates havoc on the inside and, if healthy, will continue to do so with the Patriots. He will make it extremely difficult for offenses to double team Jones without giving way on the interior of the line to Easley and Vince Wilfork – that should lead to more one-on-one match ups for Jones and, in turn, more production.

Losers

Kevin Burnett, WLB OAK

With the addition of Khalil Mack at the strongside linebacker spot and Sio Moore likely to move to the weakside, Burnett struggle for snaps. He now appears to be the odd man out in Oakland.

Jadeveon Clowney, OLB HOU

It’s a virtual certainty that Clowney will be designated as an outside linebacker to take advantage of his athleticism. He’d be a much better IDP play in balanced and tackle heavy leagues as a defensive end, so the outside linebacker spot hurts his IDP potential (other than in big-play leagues). He’s not a top IDP rookie option in rookie drafts.

Arthur Brown, ILB BAL

CJ Mosley lands in Baltimore and should immediately start. He and Daryl Smith are the projected starters for Baltimore in the middle of their 3-4 defense – that leaves Brown on the outside looking in. With Smith recently signing a four-year deal and the Mosley addition, this may be a sign Brown’s not progressing like the Ravens hoped. There was some buzz earlier this offense that Brown showed improvement, but the Mosley addition makes that look like it was fluff. Overall, this is killer for Brown in the short-term and likely the long-term given Smith’s contract situation.

Sean Spence / Vince Williams, ILBs PIT

The Steelers added Ryan Shazier who should slide into the starting lineup next to Lawrence Timmons. With Sean Spence climbing back from a nasty knee injury and Vince Williams holding down the starting spot at this point, expect them to be pushed aside with Shazier’s addition. Shazier’s addition shows Spence may not be recovering to the extent the Steelers would like. Spence and Williams lose any opportunity to see meaningful snaps with this addition.

There is some speculation Shazier could play outside linebacker, but with Jason Worilds and Jarvis Jones on the outside, the inside makes more sense. Coach Mike Tomlin also confirmed in his post-pick press conference that Shazier will play inside linebacker. 

Dee Ford, OLB KC

Like Clowney, Dee Ford is a tweener who will slide into a 3-4 outside linebacker role and lose IDP value. He has tremendous sack upside, but in balanced and tackle-heavy leagues, this is not what we hoped for. He’s also likely to be relegated to a pass-rushing role as a rookie until Tamba Hali (likely) moves on and long-term his upside is capped as a 3-4 outside linebacker.

Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Bengals

Kirkpatrick has struggled to stay on the field in his first two years. It’s unclear if the addition of Darqueze Dennard is a shot at Kirkpatrick or Leon Hall who is recovering from another Achilles injury. Given that Hall is ahead of schedule and on track for training camp, it appears this selection is more of a negative to Kirkpatrick. Once believed to be a great tackling option, the Bengals’ selection of Dennard puts Kirkpatrick on watch. It may be time to move on from the third year player in corner-required leagues until he shows a pulse. Things aren’t looking good. 

Follow Steve on Twitter @SteveWyremski

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