Making Sense of the New England Linebacker Situation
With Brandon Spikes off to Buffalo, Jerod Mayo back from injury and two young linebackers with potential in Dont’a Hightower and Jamie Collins vying for snaps, the big question in IDP leagues is how the snap breakdown in New England materializes and whether there is any potential breakout on the horizon.
As it stands, here is how the Patriots’ starting linebacker group should look:
Mayo is Mayo and will continue to be a top linebacker option given that he’s a certainty to play every down from the weakside.
Over the past few years, the Patriots second sub-package linebacker changed depending on the match-up given the lack of a stellar all-around linebacker player who excelled against the run in coverage, and rushing the passer. As a result, Spikes was virtually relegated to a two-down thumper role given his pass coverage struggles. Because of that, there wasn’t much dynasty value for anyone other than Mayo in the Patriots’ linebacker group outside of of match-up plays
If Hightower or Collins takes a consistent sub-package role, increased IDP value may be available.
Hightower, the IDP play?
The prevailing thought for many was that once Spikes moves on, Hightower would assume the middle linebacker spot and become a staple IDP linebacker and, in turn, a valuable dynasty linebacker. He’s a former first round pick with an ideal pedigree, so an increased opportunity could mean a breakout performance
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Over the past two seasons, Hightower has principally played the strongside linebacker spot. Now with Spikes moving on, he’ll slide into the middle and naturally see more tackle opportunities, which should mean increased IDP production.
Now the question is sub-package role and whether he can attain that spot on his way to dynasty greatness. With Mayo out for much of 2013 due to an injury, Hightower saw a nice chunk of sub-package snaps. To put context around that, he played 75 percent or more of snaps in all but two games during an 11 game span (including playoffs) to close 2013. However, the biggest knock on Hightower to date has been his pass coverage ability – he struggled in that area during much of his first two seasons and has often been criticized for subpar coverage play.
Given that knock, Jamie Collins may be more of a threat to Hightower’s IDP potential than once thought. In fact, according to ESPN’s Mike Reiss, Collins and Mayo are “locks to stay on when in the sub-[package].” That may be killer for Hightower’s IDP potential.
So, Collins is the IDP play?
Based on Reiss’ commentary and his “inside” opinion, it sounds like Collins is the player to go after given the volume of snaps he’d see in sub-packages. Many still scoff at the view that Hightower won’t see sub-package snaps, citing Reiss’ commentary appears to be based on a very small sample size of production from the 2014 playoffs. They also point to the fact Hightower saw 100 percent of the team’s snaps in the playoffs and played well in coverage in those two games, which is clearly valid.
Reiss didn’t explicitly confirm it, but I’d agree his comment is driven by Collins’ play against the Colts and the Broncos in January. In the Divisional Playoffs against the Colts, he showed he could get to the quarterback (one sack and two quarterback pressures), excel in pass coverage (according to ProFootballFocus he was targeted five times and yielded two receptions for 12 yards; he also added an interception) and finished the game with three solo tackles and three assists (second on the team). He put together an all-around fabulous game (the best of his young career) on 100 percent of the team’s snaps.
He then played 96 percent of the team’s snaps the following week in the AFC Championship against the Broncos and finished with six solo tackles (one fewer than Hightower), an assist and a quarterback pressure. Much may be made of Collins’ two productive games, but Hightower also performed well in those contests.
Regardless of the on-field play, though, one of the most important factors from my perspective is Bill Belichick’s post-game comments on Collins following the Colts’ game where he noted the follwing:
“As you saw today, he’s out there on split out tight ends, covering them on fade patterns, blitzing up the middle and making tackles in line. I think he’s pretty comfortable wherever he is, whether he’s out in space covering a guy 20 yards downfield, on one-on-one coverage with no help, taking on blockers, blitzing or covering tight ends from in close. He’s a very versatile athlete who’s smart, works hard and really has a great team attitude. I love having him on our team. He brings a lot. He doesn’t want to come off the field, even when he’s playing defense he wants to be out there in the kicking game. He’s got good stamina and he’s very athletic and tough.”
The bold/italics section is telling. From that, it appears Collins has achieved Belichick’s trust in all areas of the game with that playoff performance and (reading between the lines a bit further) throughout practice and filling in for Mayo in spot duty throughout the second half of the season.
Playoff play and Belichick’s comments aside, if you consider the physical attributes and background of these two players, Collins naturally makes more sense as the sub-packageplayer. Pure mass, both are 6’3”, but Collins is 20 pounds lighter at 250 pounds -that explains the speed difference as well.
Collins is also a lot more versatile given his natural athleticism and explosiveness – he can put his hand in the dirt with his defensive end background from Southern Mississippi. He also has experience as a defensive back from earlier in his career. Overall, Collins’versatility, speed and athleticism allows Belichick and defensive coordinator Matt Patricia to be a lot more creative in disguising blitzes and coverages.
Final Take
While Higthower is moving to the middle and the better IDP spot, given Collins’ athleticism, versatility, recent beat-writer comments and Belichick’s post-game comments last season, it sounds like Collins is the sub-package play beginning in 2014. As noted, that will limit Hightower’s IDP value significantly and put a dent in the hopes of those dynasty owners who have been patient.
Unfortunately, on the other side, it’s unlikely Collins would be an IDP stud as a sub-package player. As a strongside linebacker, his tackle opportunities will naturally be limited. So, while Collins is the play in this linebacker group given he’ll see a larger volume of snaps as a sub-package player, his ceiling is a lot lower. That’s not to say he can’t be a valuable IDP player (see Von Miller, Chad Greenway, Thomas Davis (2013) or that his position won’t change at some point, but it’s less likely he becomes a stud. We could still get a valuable LB2/LB3 from Collins as a sub-package player given his sack potential and snap volume, though.
This concept of Collins as a sub-package player is just starting to settle in, so he isn’t on the radar for many right now. Many are still holding to the presumption Hightower is set up to see an expanded role in 2014. Because of that, now is the time to pounce on Collins given the likelihood he sees an increase in value, volume and production. Just keep in mind that his ceiling is limited.
For Hightower owners, now may be the time to sell to someone who’s still holding on to the presumption – things aren’t looking great.
