The Dynasty Notebook
The first article I crafted for our DLF audience (Dynasty Philosophy 101) was an overview of the thoughts and insights that have taken up permanent residence in the corners of my mind after playing fantasy football for the past 20 some odd years. One aspect of that article has continued to resonate throughout the FF community spurring on additional discussions and follow up questions from many owners with a wide variety of dynasty experience. Below, you’ll see the section of that article where I originally discussed keeping a notebook to track the habits of your fellow league mates.
Keep a Notebook on the Owners in Your League
“If I could share one thing with the dynasty community, this would be it. I can’t emphasize enough how important it is to track the tendencies of the owners in your league. Sure MFL and some of the other league sites keep a history that you can look through whenever you want, but actually writing things down or typing them into a word document makes that knowledge stick with you. Which owner always reaches for a rookie quarterback too early?  Which owner likes to package his/her rookie picks for an established veteran?  Which owner is always one step ahead of you when it comes to the waiver wire? Keeping track of trade offers is important too because patterns often develop that expose vulnerabilities over time.”
So, what I’d like to do in the next few articles is spend some time delving into more detail and breaking down some of the finer intricacies associated with keeping a tendency tracking notebook. Ultimately, the amount of detail and depth of focus you put into crafting this notebook will directly correspond with the amount of time it takes to complete the process. In the end, however, you’ll have a tool that will aid you in preparing for your rookie drafts each and every year. With so many dynasty rookie drafts set to kick off soon after the NFL draft, it makes perfect sense to dig in and start with tracking the drafting habits of your fellow league mates.
What to Look For and Track
Mad Skills – Which owners are adept at drafting?
Let’s face it, some owners are just better at scouting/analyzing college players than others and if they’re not better at it, some are at least privy to better information. You need to know who those owners are before the draft starts so you’re able to maneuver and trade around those specific owners before they snipe your prized targets. Keeping track of which owners routinely nail their selections also gives you a post draft point of interest when looking to make some trades.
Mirror, Mirror – Which owner evaluates players just like you?
Is there one owner in your league who seems to have the same exact draft board as you every single year? If so, that’s something you need to be prepared for heading into your draft so you can adjust accordingly in order to get the players you’ve targeted in each draft class.
Comfort Zone, Part 1 – Which owners prefer drafting a certain player position?
Some dynasty owners are more comfortable with analyzing and breaking down certain positions and that’s reflected in their drafting patterns. Maybe one owner in your league has a high confidence level in his/her ability to scout running backs. Well, rest assured, you’ll see that propensity develop over time because most owners tend to gravitate to and/or revert back to their comfort zones on a consistent basis. League mates will also develop positional drafting bias simply because they deem one particular position more valuable than the others.
Comfort Zone Part 2 – Which owners prefer a certain draft spot?Â
Owners can also establish a comfort level with certain spots in the draft. As crazy as it might sound, there are some dynasty players out there who simply don’t like the pressure of having to select first overall and will negotiate aggressively in an effort to trade back. Identifying these players could provide a unique window of opportunity should you covet a top spot in an upcoming draft.
BPA Driven – Which owners always draft “Best Player Available?”
There’s always a player or two in every league with the mental fortitude and conviction to draft the best players available regardless of any extenuating circumstances, landing spots or hype. These are the owners who provide the consistency necessary to plot out the course of your league’s draft.
Holes to Fill – Which owners draft for team needs?
Just like drafting BPA, some owners prefer to draft by prioritizing team needs and weaknesses. There were more than a few dynasty owners who reached on running backs like Shonn Greene, Mikel Leshoure and Daniel Thomas in years past simply because their dynasty squads desperately needed help at the running back position. Identifying these owners and studying their roster weaknesses prior to your draft will help you make projections as to how your league’s draft may play out.
Experience Trumps Rookies – Which owners like to trade picks for established veterans?Â
Some dynasty owners see rookie picks as the life blood to building a successful dynasty team. There are other owners, however, who prefer trading those picks for established players with a proven track record at the NFL level. Looking back at the transactions history from previous drafts will shine a light on just who those owners are and what type of value they’re generally looking to acquire in exchange for trading away a few picks.
The Perfect Landing – Landing spots/situation trumps talent for some.
While I strongly advise you never, ever let yourself get sucked into the “landing spot abyss,” there are some dynasty owners who simply can’t seem to overcome the temptation to draft opportunity over talent. Pinpointing the owners who tend to have that mindset will help determine how aggressive or patient you need to be once your draft gets underway.
Hoarders – Which owners like to stockpile picks?
Capitalizing quickly on opportunities to move up or down in a rookie draft is a key component for any successful dynasty owner. Having the fantasy football acumen to know which of your league mates likes to trade back in exchange for multiple picks is a major coup when you see one of your draft targets still on the board, thereby giving you an opportunity to strike.
Pay it Forward – acquiring future picks
Once again, there’s generally an owner in every league who always likes next year’s rookie bonanza a little more than the current draft class – these are the owners to target if you need an extra pick right here, right now. I don’t often recommend the trading of future draft picks, but when you see extreme value dropping in your draft, or you’re missing that one piece for a title run, you need to know which door to knock on with an increased chance of making a successful deal.
Scoring Precision – Applying scoring rules when drafting.Â
So, your league has pretty unique scoring rules? Well, who in your league really knows how to apply those specific scoring rules to their draft selections? Some players have a special skill for assigning just the right value and adjusting their draft board to account for league scoring specifics. Not only is this a trend to track, it’s also a tendency to learn from. Too often we ignore certain skills in other owners in our leagues when we should be studying and incorporating those skills into our own repertoire.
ZZZZZZ – Which owners take forever to pick?
Most leagues have a slow online draft, generally consisting of a 12 or 24 hour timer. It’s important to know which owners tend to use a good portion of their allotted time before selecting a player because it gives you a window of opportunity to wheel and deal and make that draft time magic.
So, those are a few of the tendencies and patterns to focus on should you choose to put together a league owner notebook. Again, the choice is completely yours when it comes to how detailed to make it, or how far back to go when extrapolating data. You could even start from scratch with this upcoming draft if going back and playing dynasty sleuth doesn’t really interest you. If you choose to go back through the history of your league, use the league archives to sift through previous rookie drafts and/or trade transactions. My suggestion is to make a grid for each owner in your league and start jotting down your thoughts on their selections in each round, looking for anything that fits into the categories mentioned above. Was it a quarterback in the first round? Was it a reach for a player? Was it a complete miss on a pick? Did they make trades during the draft? I’m sure by now you get the idea….just start dissecting the information for any relevant patterns and hopefully when you’re finished you’ll have some valuable data to help navigate this year’s rookie draft. Next time we’ll take a closer look at owner tendencies and how they impact trading along with what patterns to cultivate to improve your chances of completing a deal.
If you have any questions or comments, please feel free to contact me here at DLF or on Twitter @FFHoudini.
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