Wide Receiver Combine Analysis: A Look Back at 2013
Over the last few months, I’ve been working to refine my metric that takes a look at the combine performances of the incoming rookie class and gives them a score based on their physical potential. Like most metrics, this is just a snapshot. It makes no attempt to define the whole player as very important characteristics such as work ethic, knowledge of the game, route running, catching with their hands and many others are not quantified at the combine. However, it does quantify the physical characteristics of the incoming rookies in order to give us a hint about if they have the physical tools to make it in the NFL.
For a very in depth explanation of how I came up with the metric, the math behind it and the baseline numbers, look back on the articles about the 2014 class of rookies. The short version is that I created a baseline group made up of every wide receiver who has been a WR2 or better in PPR fantasy leagues over the last three years. I then looked up their combine data and used it as the baseline scores. I compared the scores for the rookies to the baseline using some basic statistics. The metric score is simply the sum of the z-scores for every drill or measurement.
This was the first year I went about the process this way and I feel it is a much more accurate measure of the package a prospect brings. Before, there was little difference between a good score and an elite one on a combine drill as they were both considered ‘positive.’ The new metric differentiates between even the smallest of differences and paints a much more complete picture of the prospect’s ability. Since the metric was new, I wanted to go back through the previous two rookie classes and see which players could be potential diamonds in the rough.
If you haven’t read the previous articles, or it has been a while since you’ve done so, you really need to go back and read them before going any further. This metric is unusual in that it is a zero sum metric. In other words, a score of 0 is the exact average of the baseline group. This means a prospect has the same physical abilities as the average of the WR1/WR2 group – that’s actually a good thing! Even slightly negative scores can be a good thing as well. A negative number just means their physical abilities are slightly below the best receivers in the game. They can still be extremely productive and maybe even join that group at some point. In some ways, the score itself is a measure of the physical upside or ceiling of a player. Again, it is not a complete picture of how their career might play out.
Let’s take a look back at the 2013 rookie class of wide receivers and see if there are any potential sleepers that might warrant some attention.
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Great Scores (2 or higher)
DaRick Rodgers (5.988)
Mark Harrison (5.553)
Rodney Smith (3.684)
Josh Boyce (3.556)
The leader of the pack last year in terms of physical ability was DaRick Rodgers – that shouldn’t surprise anyone. Unfortunately, he’s about as big of a headcase as he is a physical talent. He went undrafted and couldn’t make the roster of the receiver needy Bills. He’s currently buried on the Colts roster and will need to show he’s matured if he’s going to make the team in 2014. If he doesn’t make it onto the 53 man roster, it has nothing to do with physical talent and everything to do with mental maturity. If he’s cut by the Colts, it is probably time to move on.
Mark Harrison and Rodney Smith are both big bodied workout warriors. They are better athletes than football players and won’t be playing wide receiver in the NFL any time soon. There has been some talk of Harrison trying to transition to the tight end position, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. They don’t really belong near fantasy rosters.
Josh Boyce is a different story, though. A fourth round pick of the Patriots, he is going to need to fight for a roster spot this year. Julian Edelman and Aaron Dobson are locked in at one and two on the depth chart in my opinion. Danny Amendola and Brandon LaFell are likely to make the roster with their contracts, but their playing time is very much up in the air – that leaves Boyce to compete with 2013 pre-season darling Kenbrell Thompkins for the last spot on the roster. Boyce is easily the more physically talented player and I expect him to win the battle. If he does so, he could go as high as third on the depth chart, making him a very low priced sleeper in deep leagues.
Good Scores (Between 0 and 2)
Marcus Davis (1.955)
Cordarrelle Patterson (0.493)
Justin Hunter (0.460)
Keenan Allen (0.423)
Ryan Swope (0.371)
Chris Harper (0.296)
Davis and Harper weren’t drafted and Swope was looking great before another concussion ended his career – that leaves only three names in this group and all of them should be firmly on fantasy rosters by now.
I’m not going to spend a whole lot of time talking about the big three in this group. They are all highly prized assets right now, some of them too highly priced in my opinion. Keenan Allen didn’t do anything at the combine other than step on the scale and get measurements taken, so his score is a little incomplete. As for Justin Hunter and Cordarrelle Patterson, look at how close their scores are. They both have massive upside. With Patterson, you’re already paying for that upside given his current ADP. Keep in mind Hunter would have actually had the vastly superior score if he didn’t lose a massive four points for being so underweight.
Respectable (Between -2 and 0)
Markus Wheaton (-0.145)
TJ Moe (-0.280)
Stedman Bailey (-0.520)
Ryan Spadola (-0.667)
Marquise Goodwin (-0.912)
Aaron Dobson (-1.089)
Quinton Patton (-1.144)
In the third tier, Moe and Spadola went undrafted and don’t really deserve a second though at this point in time.
Markus Wheaton is the first of the under six feet tall receivers to pop up. Remember the metric is a little bit too harsh to smaller receivers, so it is noteworthy he is so close to a score of zero. He has long arms for his height and above average speed. His explosiveness is right on par with where it should be while he showed extremely well in the acceleration and change of direction drills. He’s one to watch if you aren’t already.
The forgotten man in St. Louis, Stedman Bailey is another shorter receiver with big hands and long arms for his 5’10” height. He’s not fast, but he’s fast enough given his change of direction skills and his ability to start and stop. It is definitely worth inquiring about his availability in your league because there’s a chance he could be a starter on the outside given the instability of the Rams’ depth chart at the position.
I’m going to give Marquise Goodwin and Aaron Dobson incompletes as far as their scores are concerned. Dobson didn’t do much at the combine other than measure in with nice height but too lean of a build. I will say he’s still my favorite to be an every week starter for the Patriots on the outside. As for Goodwin, he ran a blazing fast time in the 40 yard dash, but that was it for the drills. He was pulled down by short arms, small size and exceptionally small hands, but he can definitely fly. Even with the speed, I don’t think he’ll ever turn into a fantasy relevant receiver.
Much like Bailey, I think Patton is flying under the radar a little bit. Anquan Boldin isn’t getting any younger and neither is Vernon Davis. The 49ers will need someone opposite Michael Crabtree and Patton does have the skills to be the second wide receiver for them. He isn’t a burner, but he does have a thick build and solid size. He also has very good acceleration and change of direction skills, making him an ideal player to step up into Boldin’s role as a possession receiver.
Questionable (Between -6 and -2)
Corey Fuller (-2.291)
Marlon Brown (-2.440)
DeAndre Hopkins (-2.471)
Tavarres King (-2.626)
Aaron Mellette (-2.943)
Tyrone Goard (-3.840)
Marquess Wilson (-4.341)
Tavon Austin (-5.146)
Kenny Stills (-5.198)
Kenbrell Thompkins (-5.633)
Lanear Sampson (-5.786)
The first two receivers from last year’s NFL draft find themselves on the lower tier. I’ll give the 5’8” Tavon Austin a little bit of a pass because the metric seems to unfairly penalize short receivers. He lost 6.5 points across the various size/height/length based metrics. He also showed near elite speed and acceleration. Personally, I have Austin pretty far up my receiver rankings and think his upside is pretty high. He could be a solid WR2 with his explosiveness and the price is right for him right now.
The other big name is of course DeAndre Hopkins. The fact he has the size and is still this far down the list tells me his upside is going to be a little bit limited – I’ve been saying that since this time last year. I just don’t see a future top receiver for an NFL team when I look at Hopkins. He’s a very good complement to a top receiver, but I don’t think he has the skill set to be the top target for an NFL team – that means we are talking about a receiver with top 25 upside, not top 15.
Last fall, there were a lot of people trying to figure out which of the receivers for the Ravens were going to break out as the second option. Of course the answer was none of them – that means we get to play the game again this year and the scores for Marlon Brown and Aaron Mellette are almost identical. There really isn’t a physical edge for either one of them.
Tavarres King is a player who made some noise last pre-season, but he couldn’t make the roster for the Broncos. He now finds himself on the depleted Panthers. It is a little concerning the Broncos didn’t think enough to keep him on the active roster when they knew Eric Decker was going to be a free agent, but let’s focus on what the combine told us. The only area where the six foot tall King was significantly off the baseline group was in his lean build. Outside of that, he was extremely close to the mean scores in pretty much all drills. He has the physical skill set to be a solid WR2 in the right situation. I have some concerns, but at the right price I’m buying him for the upside.
As a Bears fan, I wasn’t very happy to see Marquess Wilson this far down the list. He has the height, but an extremely lean build, small hands and short arms aren’t the recipe for a star receiver. As for the drills, he was a little below the average of the baseline group across the board except for the fact he has elite change of direction ability – I’m not sure that is going to be enough to make him a fantasy relevant receiver. Behind the big two of the Bears, he isn’t going to get much chance either.
Another slim, small handed, short armed receiver, Stills is also making a lot of noise right now due to his situation. He does have the speed to stretch the field, but I think that might be his only role in the NFL. He doesn’t have the build or the physical skills to develop into much else.
The last receiver worth mentioning in this group is pre-season favorite, Kenbrell Thompkins. Just before the season, Thompkins was being talked about as potentially being a top ten rookie. That isn’t how things played out, though. Much like 2012 pre-season favorite Lestar Jean, Thompkins just doesn’t have a physical skill set that compares in a favorably way to the top receivers. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him looking for a new team at some point this pre-season.
Others of note: Robert Woods (-8.503), Ace Sanders (-11.055)
I’m not going to say much on Woods nor Sanders. If either of them made it into the WR2 ranks at some point in their careers, they would be the least physically gifted athletes, according to this metric, to make it onto the list. Things aren’t looking very good for them if you think there is a physical profile for NFL players and you put any stock at all into the combine.
That’s it for the look back at the 2013 wide receiver group. It is a group as a whole that pales in comparison to the 2014 draft class, but there are still a few buy low, high upside guys who deserve a look as potential WR2s or WR3s on your roster.
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