Quality Starts: Quarterbacks

Ryan McDowell

Last week, I celebrated my two-year anniversary here at DLF. Over that span, my favorite article I’ve written, and the one I’m most proud of was this one- Quality Starts, where I took a look at three years worth of data to define a quality start and analyzed which quarterbacks provided the best bang for your draft pick buck. So, it’s no surprise I was eager to revisit this topic with new data to dig into and find what the numbers had to say about quarterback performance over the past three seasons.

What is a Quality Start?

I have borrowed the baseball term “quality start” to label the players who are consistent producers in the world of fantasy football.  In baseball, a quality start is the reference used for a starting pitcher who completes six or more innings and allows three runs or less.  Baseball statisticians also place great emphasis on the percentage of a pitcher’s starts in which they achieve a quality start.  That is exactly what I have done to identify the players who will be consistent starters for your fantasy team. Before I unveil the players you might want to target in your dynasty or re-draft league, let me explain the process I used to identify these players.

For the purpose of this article, I’ve defined a Quality Start based on the average weekly quarterback performances over the past three seasons. I began by identifying the top twelve weekly performers at the quarterback position for each week from 2011 through 2013.  After collecting 51 weeks worth of data, I simply averaged all of the QB1 scores together and followed by doing the same for each QB2, QB3 and so on through QB12.  If you can find a player who provides your fantasy team with a high percentage of Quality Starts, you may have an advantage over your opponent.

The scoring system I used awards quarterbacks four points for passing touchdowns and one point for every twenty-five passing yards.

When I wrote this article two years ago, I used a minimum of ten starts over the three season period as the requirement for inclusion in the study. I found that number to be too lenient, which allowed for some unreliable data to sneak into the study. This time, I’ve amended that minimum to sixteen starts over a three-year period. This still allows for 2013 rookies to be included, but only if they started every game of their inaugural season.

How can this data help? 

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I have found relying on season long numbers alone to judge the quality of a player’s season has many potholes and inconsistencies. Take a few minutes to look at the top scorers in your league, sorted by total points for the season. You’ll likely notice some surprising names found at the top of the list and we’ll cover a few of those later.

The point is, you want players who can offer your dynasty team the most consistent week-to-week performances, with some elite scores mixed in as well. There are some players who give their owners a feeling of riding a roller coaster when looking at their week-to-week performances. Needless to say, it makes inserting these players into a starting lineup and difficult task.

Some of the following data will not be surprising as many of the top ranked and valued quarterbacks are also the ones with the most consistent weekly scoring, but there will be some who may demand a second look, and that’s not always a good thing. I have already found myself adjusting my dynasty rankings as a result of this study, and you may do the same.

Quality Start Baseline Data

I mentioned earlier how I went about gathering the data, so let’s see exactly what a quarterback needs to notch a Quality Start.

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From this data, we see a Quality Start is defined as one in which the quarterback scores 21.1 fantasy points or more. You’ll notice a large disparity between QB1 and QB12 performances, but we’ll cover that later. For the purpose of finding Quality Start data, I searched for every time over the past three seasons that each quarterback scored at least that minimum QB12 threshold.

Here’s what I found…

Quality Starts

Here are the players with the highest percentage of Quality Starts based on data from 2011-2013.

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As I said earlier, there are few real surprises here. Among this group of eleven are some of the top quarterbacks of the past several years. Several of these passers are trending downward, despite their appearance on this list. For more information about that, check out the Trends section below.

Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady have proven themselves as reliable NFL starting quarterbacks as well as starting fantasy options for much of the past decade and each of those players are giving their fantasy owners a Quality Start at least 60% of the time – this equates to at least ten quality starts over the course of a sixteen game season. Obviously, that leaves seven other games where even the best of the best fail to give their owners more than the 21.1 fantasy point QB12 performance.

This list also features some of the relative newcomers to the game, namely Nick Foles. After a below average start in 2012 with only two Quality Starts, Foles earned a Quality Start in 90% of his 2013 starts. That’s right, in nine of his ten starts, he scored at least 21.1 fantasy points. It pays to be the lead man in a Chip Kelly offense.

You’ll also notice many quarterbacks who are viewed as “running quarterbacks” make this top list. Among them are Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III. If there’s one thing we know, it’s that the rushing prowess of these players is not consistently displayed, especially as these players begin to deal with mounting injuries. In the end though, the added fantasy points these players gain from rushing yards and touchdowns are enough to set them apart from some of their highly regarded counterparts on the list below.

Next, here is the list of players falling below the 50% rate, meaning less than half of their NFL starts will result in a fantasy Quality Start.

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Unlike the first tier, this list contains some surprises. Possibly the most jolting in Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, who is often considered the top dynasty quarterback overall. Luck has started all 32 games of his first two seasons, but has managed just fifteen Quality Starts. This puts him on pace for close to eight games a year of at least 21.1 fantasy points. That’s not bad, but I’m not sure it’s good enough for the QB1 in dynasty. Perhaps it’s time, we, myself included, consider moving Luck down the ranks a bit?

Many of the players that once formed the top tier of fantasy quarterbacks reside in this second group as well, including veterans like Tony Romo, Philip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Eli Manning. These players are all valued as dynasty backups at this point and that’s exactly the type of performances they are providing at this stage in their career, posting a Quality Start between 1/3 and 1/2 the time.

One player who caught my attention on this list was Bengals’ passer Andy Dalton. It’s well-known that Dalton is often criticized, but I think this “hate” has caused him to be undervalued in dynasty leagues. He’s had success in each of his three seasons and even finished as a top five quarterback last season. Now, I know that statistic has its flaws, which I’ve already pointed out myself earlier in the article. Still, Dalton is putting up a Quality Start in more than one-third of his games and that makes for a solid backup. Considering he’s younger than most other players in this group, I’d easily prefer him to the Roethlisberger level players. Also, should Russell Wilson really be valued so much more than Dalton, despite posting similar numbers? Potentially what sets these two players apart in dynasty value is the job security Wilson has earned, despite posting average fantasy numbers. While Wilson has already led his team to a Super Bowl title in just two seasons as the starter, it seems Bengals fans already doubt Dalton’s ability to do the same for his team. If the Bengals decision makers come to the same conclusion, Dalton could be out of a job as they look for an upgrade.  This is an example where dynasty owners must look beyond the numbers and consider the players’ situation and standing with their team.

Finally, we have a sleeper to be aware of and he is likely even available on your league’s waiver wire. The Houston Texans recently signed Ryan Fitzpatrick after dispatching of former starter Matt Schaub. Pairing this with the recent rumors the Texans will opt for Jadeveon Clowney with the top overall selection rather than a quarterback and Fitzpatrick becomes a very cheap QB2 option. This advice does carry a caveat though. If Fitzpatrick does indeed win the job, he is only a short-term play and even if he makes it through the season, the Texans would likely turn the job over to the rookie they are presumed to draft with an early pick next month. Fitzpatrick did play well for both the Bills and the Titans over the past three seasons, neither of which featured a quality pass catching group. If Fitzpatrick claims the Texans starting job, he’ll be tossing the ball to Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins all season. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m actually excited to see what he can do with Houston.

Finally, here’s the bottom tier, which includes all quarterbacks with sixteen or more starts over the past three seasons and less than one-third of those resulting in Quality Starts.

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 Again, there are few surprises on this list. Among these fifteen signal callers, only six seem to be locks to start week one and that is counting Jake Locker, who seems to be destined to be run out of Nashville in the near future.  Alex Smith and Joe Flacco are fine NFL quarterbacks, but neither have high fantasy upside, so I doubt you’re surprised to see them on this list.

A pair of young AFC East players make this list in Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith. It’s disappointing if you are an owner or supporter of these players, but their supporting cast, or lack thereof, has to be considered when looking at their recent struggles. It’s too soon to give up on either player, but it does make Tannehill being routinely drafted as a QB1 in recent dynasty mocks look like an unwise choice. The defense for Tannehill begins with the train wreck that was the 2013 Dolphins season, which was clouded by controversy and poor decisions in the previous off-season. Throw in the fact Tannehill didn’t even become a full time quarterback until his final season at Texas A&M and there is some leniency required.

This might be the last chance for Rams quarterback Sam Bradford. I recall being shocked by his poor showing in this metric two seasons ago, but he was performing better before his season ending injury this year. Half of his first six starts in 2013 resulted in a Quality Start, meaning three of his eight Quality Starts came this past season alone. With the Rams adding more pass catching options, maybe Bradford continues his solid play.

I again have to point out the worst quarterback in my study and for the second time, it’s former Jaguars first round draft pick Blaine Gabbert. In 27 starts over the past three seasons, Gabbert has scored more than 21.1 points just one time. Once! That makes the fact that Jacksonville was able to get a draft pick in exchange for Gabbert even more mind boggling. What’s even worse for Jaguars fans is that their apparent starter heading into the 2014 season, Chad Henne, was the second worst in this model, posting just two Quality Starts in 23 opportunities.

Elite Starts

I mentioned earlier the disparity between the average scores for the QB12 and the top players in the QB1 or QB2 range and I’m sure you noticed how substantial the difference was. Let’s look next at the difference between each position, as well as the difference between QB1 and every other spot on the list.

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From this chart, you’ll see a large difference between the quarterbacks at the top of the list and those barely sneaking into the QB1 tier. In fact, a difference of more than 15 points, as we have from the QB1 to the QB10-12 is easily larger enough to make a difference in deciding your weekly matchup.

It is clear that simply owning a quarterback who can provide your team with routine Quality Starts is not good enough to give you an advantage over most other teams. No, to enjoy that weekly advantage and to put your team in position to make a deep playoff run, you’ll need a quarterback who can score on an elite level. Seeing this gap two years ago and that sizable gap maintained with the more recent data, I am reminded of my term Elite Starts. Unlike the Quality Starts term, which I defined as the top twelve scoring quarterback performances, on average, the Elite Start is defined by the data itself. As I reread my previous article, I felt I loosely threw around the term “elite.” In this case, I’ll refer to an Elite Start as any that netted the quarterback 33.5 fantasy points or more. This number would be, on average, enough to land a quarterback among the top two scorers for any given week.

I used the same time period and found this data. Here are the only players who post an Elite Start in at least ten percent of their outings. You’ll notice the list is a short one.

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The gap in between Saints quarterback Drew Brees in both quantity of Elite Starts as well as the percentage in which this feat was accomplished is truly remarkable. On average over the past three seasons, Brees has earned his fantasy teams over 33.5 fantasy points five times per season – that’s twice more on average than any other player in the game, including the second most prolific scorer, Aaron Rodgers.

Trending Down

Across each of their tiers, there are players trending in different directions over the past three seasons. For starters, here’s a look at players whose performance has dipped in each of the past two seasons.

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Many of these players, including Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Cam Newton remain atop the dynasty quarterback ranks, but it’s important to be aware that their production on a week-by-week basis is not what it was three years ago. For both Newton and the Redskins’ Robert Griffin III, we can look back at their impressive rookie seasons and their failure to repeat those performances in the following seasons. Finally, it’s interesting to note that in 2011 and 2012, Eli Manning and Tony Romo were nearly identical in their Quality Start percentage, but in 2013, Romo saw a slight increase, while the bottom really fell out for Manning. It would not be surprising to see Manning’s numbers recover somewhat, but he’ll likely never be a trusted fantasy starter again.

Trending Up

Just as many players are slowing down, some are ramping up their scoring pace. Here is a look at players who are trending up over the three-year period.

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The most dramatic climb is of course Nick Foles, who has already been discussed as the primary beneficiary of the Chip Kelly offense. Beyond him though, there are others moving in the right direction. Andy Dalton continues to climb as he works with AJ Green, though with a new offensive coordinator this year, can he repeat his numbers from 2013? Sam Bradford, Alex Smith and Jake Locker were players who showed very poorly in the first edition of this article two years ago. While their cumulative ranks are still below average, they have shown improvement, especially in 2013. Finally, I mentioned an earlier concern for Andrew Luck and his possible premature ranking as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the game, but the good news is he is improving, at least in terms of the percentage of Quality Starts per season.

Maintaining Performance 

Finally, there are a handful of players who have relatively maintained their Quality Start percentage over the three-year time period of the study. This could be viewed as either a positive or a negative, depending on the level of performance they are keeping.

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The standout on this list is clearly Lions’ quarterback Matthew Stafford, who has maintained his high Quality Start percentage over the three seasons, with all three years above 60%. He’s shown that he can be relied on year in and year out as a fantasy starter. When it comes to predicting if these trends can continue, there are many factors to consider. Although Stafford has produced some impressive statistics, he has done so inefficiently. He led the league in passing attempts in both 2011 and 2012, yet his completion percentage has not been good and he’s often criticized for his work ethic and throwing mechanics. New head coach Jim Caldwell was reportedly hired in part to “fix Stafford.” The means by which he attempts to fix Stafford as a passer could certainly result in less pass attempts and more reliance on the Lions’ running game. One sign that Stafford could keep up his prolific numbers is the addition of former Seahawk Golden Tate, who should be a clear upgrade as the Lions’ second wide receiver.

The Falcons’ Matt Ryan and 49er quarterback Colin Kapernick do not quite match Stafford’s production, but they do hold fairly steady with around a fifty percent Quality Start rate, although both were slightly down in 2013. Finally, this is bad news for players like Christian Ponder and, surprisingly, Ryan Tannehill, who are maintaining their performance level, albeit at a low rate of Quality Starts.

Look for similar articles analyzing weekly performance of running backs, wide receivers and tight ends in the coming weeks from @EaglesMusings and myself.

Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter

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ryan mcdowell