Running Back Combine Analysis: Part Three, The Rankings
I recently put together an article series outlining and examining my system for evaluation the combine performances of the entire 2014 running back class. If you missed it, please go back and take a look at general outline so you at least understand the metric and the method for arriving at it. In that article I spend a lot of time focusing on the lesser known draft prospects, be they good or bad. I mostly skipped over the bigger names we all know about.
Now is my chance to give those bigger names their due.
These are my top ten running backs for the 2014 draft class, without knowing what teams they are going to be playing for in the fall. The draft can of course change things, but from a pure talent perspective, these are my top players. They are in order of their scores using my combine analysis metric.
Bishop Sankey (5.406)
Sankey isn’t a player who is going to wow you with highlight reel runs or appear in a lot of sports center clips. However, he is a very solidly build 5’9”, 209 pound prospect who does just about everything better than most. He might not be the fastest, the strongest or the quickest player in the class, but when you’re near the top in almost all of those categories, you should have a productive NFL career.
His 4.49 second time in the 40 yard dash is dead on with the average of the baseline group, meaning he is good, but not great straight line speed. Where he really separates himself from the pack was with a class best 4.00 second time in the 20 yard shuttle, meaning he was able to get up to speed, stop, change direction and accelerate again faster than anyone else in the whole class. Combine that with significantly above average marks in strength, explosion and cutting and you have a back who could turn into an every week starter.
If you watch his games, you see a very complete running back. He can catch the ball, run inside and outside, break off 60 yard runs and move the pile at the goal line. Unlike a lot of the other running backs in this class, he played in a pro-style offense meaning his stats can actually be viewed as somewhat reliable. He’s a career 5.43 yards per carry player with a little over 600 carries under his belt. He’s the complete package. He might not be elite, but he’s one of the best collection of skills in this draft at the running back position. He’s also the rare running back in this class without injury or character red flags. I think it is a mistake if you’re viewing him as a second round fantasy target. He should be one of the first running backs off the board at this point in time.
Tre Mason (3.304)
One of the most well-known running backs this past season in all of college football, Mason created quite the reputation when he rushed for 164 yards and one touchdown against Alabama, 304 yards and four scores against Missouri in the SEC championship game and 195 yards and one score on the ground in the National Championship game. Needless to say, he was a beast this year in college with 23 touchdowns and a 5.7 yard per carry average.
Mason’s time at the combine was equally impressive.
He measured in at a rather solid 207 pounds for his 5’8” height. It would be nice to see him about ten pounds heavier to help him take the beating at the NFL level, but it is still a very solid size for his shorter height. The 4.50 second time in the forty yard dash is right about where it should be while he checked in significantly above average on the jumps, showing off his explosiveness and burst.
During games he displayed good explosiveness and agility, making cuts in tight spaces and making defenders miss. He also showed enough power to run through bad tackles and displayed a violent, punishing running style. On the other side of the coin, he was used very infrequently in the passing game though and he also struggled with ball security from time to time. He held up very well with a massive workload the second half of 2013, but there are also some who question his durability at his current size. Personally, I think Mason has what it takes to be the majority part of a committee and to possibly grow into a three down back at some point in his career.
Andre Williams (3.222)
The 5’11”, 230 pound running back out of Boston College looks every bit the part of an NFL running back. His 4.56 time in the 40 yard dash isn’t ideal, but given his size it is pretty good. Fortunately, he showed a great first step and superior acceleration. He also performed extremely well in the jumps, showing off how explosive he actually is.
On the field, Williams was the leading rusher in all of Division I-A with 2177 yards on 355 carries. There are some who will point out a lack of quality competition, but you don’t rush for over 2,000 yards without having talent. Williams is a powerful runner who can punish defenders. He has good vision and a great first step. Unfortunately he isn’t the most elusive open field runner and I wonder how much he can create on his own. He didn’t have a single reception in 2013, but he was better than most in pass protection. It isn’t clear if his lack of receptions was purely scheme or because he lacks ability so they avoided the situation. He’s definitely worthy of at least a two down role in the NFL, but he isn’t a super dynamic runner.
Lache Seastrunk (1.682)
One of the more explosive running backs in college football over the last two years, Seastrunk managed over 7.5 yards per carry during his college career. He showed great explosiveness, very good speed, and agility that few possess. Part of that production was definitely aided by the system he played in though and it is fair to wonder how productive he can actually be in an NFL style running game. He also always seems to be seeking to homerun, leading to some poor choices from time to time. There are also questions about his ability in the passing game after he caught only eight passes in his entire career, though he did show the ability to make some catches at the combine. Some concerns about his character might also push him down draft boards a little bit.
Speaking of the combine, Seastrunk is a little lean at only 201 pounds and was lacking upper body strength. He was also a little slow for his size, running a 4.51 second time in the forty yard dash. However, his jumps were nothing short of elite for a running back. The lower body strength and explosiveness that he possesses explain why he was able to make some of the cuts he makes. It would have been nice to see him do the shuttle run and three cone drill to get a better idea of his burst and change of direction abilities, but he does have some elite characteristics. With that said, I do have enough question marks about his ability play in a pro style running game, ability to play in the passing game and character to drop him into my second tier of runners. He does have some intrigue, though.
Isaiah Crowell (0.942)
Speaking of character concerns and intrigue, Crowell definitely has them both. For those who don’t know the story, Crowell was one of the top recruits in all of college football when he selected Georgia over almost every other division one program. That didn’t last too long as he was arrested on felony weapon charges while rumors swirled of failed drug tests and allegations of him being immature and not a team player. He was forced down to the FCS ranks at Alabama State where he finished his college career. The good news for Crowell is he managed to keep himself out of trouble during his two years at Alabama State. I wonder if it was a product of having the spotlight removed from him or if he was truly humbled and has matured as a result of his previous issues.
At the combine, Crowell checked in at a very solid 224 pounds while measuring 5’11”. His 4.57 second time in the forty yard dash was a little slower than expected and isn’t ideal by any means, but it isn’t terrible for his size. His 23 reps in the bench press showed good upper body strength while his jumps showed above average explosion in the lower body. He didn’t compete in the shuttle or three cone drills which is unfortunate. It would have been nice to have those numbers to compare them to what he did in games.
Overall, there are a lot of questions about character off the field and his effort on the field. There are some signs during his games that he wasn’t putting forth his full effort at all points in time. He went down way too easily at times while appearing to be a less than willing pass blocker. When he is trying you can catch glimpses of what made him one of the top recruits in the country. His vision and instincts are near elite. If he can mature, put in consistent effort on the field, and refine his game a bit he could be a steal of NFL and fantasy teams alike. Otherwise he could just be another Bryce Brown.
Terrance West (-0.226)
I’ve been one of West’s greatest supporters for months now. The small school prospect is an underrated beast who is finally starting to get the credit he deserves. He’s 225 pounds while standing 5’9” and looks even bigger. He easily has the size to play in the NFL. In terms of speed, the 4.54 second time in the 40 yard dash is adequate, especially if you factor in his size. His jumps were pretty close to the average of the baseline group meaning his explosiveness is on par with NFL starters, but isn’t anything special.
Where West is special is when you watch him on the field. He led all of college football with a record setting 2,509 yards and 41 touchdowns in one season. For reference, that is several hundred more yards and more than double the touchdowns in Seastrunk’s entire college career. Of course West did this in the FCS, but he utterly dominated the lower level of competition, which is exactly what you would want him to do. Working against him is the fact that the FCS isn’t exactly known for producing starting running backs. In fact, the best they have done is backup level talents like Rashad Jennings, but it is important to remember West is the best there has ever been in the FCS.
What separates West from everyone else (aside from his size and power) is that short of Crowell, he probably has the best vision in this draft class. He has a feel for the holes before they open and has enough burst to power through them, knocking defenders out of the way. Where he falls a little short is in the open field. He isn’t the most elusive back in space and isn’t going to make too many defenders miss as he would prefer to just run them over. Against bigger defenders in the NFL it is fair to wonder if he’ll be able to just run through people. I really like West as a middle round pick, but it is a huge jump from the FCS to the NFL.
Charles Sims (-0.598)
A lot of people have been comparing Sims to Matt Forte over the last few months. It is probably because it fits so well. Both are taller, lean running backs with upright running styles. They are both deceptively fast and excellent catchers. For Sims in particular, he is 6’0” and 214 pounds. Ideally he would be an inch or two shorter at that size. With 4.48 second wheels he has enough speed to play the position. He could stand to add a few pounds of muscle in his upper body to help in pass protection and the power running game, but he showed nice lower body explosiveness at the combine.
On the field, what separates Sims is he is easily the best pass catcher in this draft at the running back position. Quite honestly he runs better routes and is more of a natural hands catcher than several of the wide receivers in this draft as well, making him a potential PPR beast! When it comes to running with the ball, he shows enough elusiveness to make defenders miss and enough speed to run away from would be tacklers. That isn’t to say he is perfect, because he isn’t, but adding 5-10 pounds of muscle could solve a lot of his issues. He doesn’t power through tackles the way you want and his pass blocking is more getting in the way than actually blocking. Overall, I really like Sims if he lands on the right team who uses their running backs to catch out of the backfield. He won’t be quite as good as Forte, but he could be close.
Carlos Hyde (-3.125)
The 6’0”, 232 pounder out of Ohio State is my top running back in this class. I know he isn’t the flashiest and he didn’t have a great combine, but I think he has the best chance to post RB1 numbers for the next few years out of this draft class. He’s a beast on the field who destroys smaller defenders and tacklers who don’t step up with sound fundamentals. He is surprisingly elusive in tight quarters and easily the best inside runner in this draft class. He has the ability to catch passes out of the backfield as well, making him a complete running back. With the size to be a true bell cow, he could easily be the best fantasy running back in this draft class.
In terms of the combine, I’m going to give Hyde a little bit of a pass after watching him pull up lame on his 40 yard dash run and not participating fully in the event. I believe he is more of a mid-4.5s runner than the 4.66 time he posted with the injury. He doesn’t have breakaway speed nor is he the most elusive in the open field. That just isn’t his game. He’s a downhill runner who gets better late in the game and can absolutely take over.
There are definitely some questions that need to be answered about Hyde, though. The first are the character questions after he took some potential recruits to a campus bar and the group was accused of sexual assault. There have also been a few reports that question his dedication to the game and willingness to fully commit his lifestyle to being an elite athlete. If he can prove to NFL teams that there is nothing to worry about, he should be the first running back drafted in the NFL draft and should also be the first one taken in fantasy drafts in my opinion.
Jeremy Hill (-5.007)
A few months back, I was very high on Hill. I felt that he possessed an underrated skill set and could present a very nice value pick in the second round of fantasy drafts. Since that time I’ve slowly been souring a bit on him and the combine pushed me from the point of targeting him in the second round of drafts to most likely letting someone else take the risk.
Hill’s combine was not very good. Notice the gap in the metric score between Hill and the next healthy running back on this list, Sims. Hill does have great size at 6’1” and 233 pounds, but his 4.66 second time in the forty was very underwhelming, even with his size in mind. He also showed poorly in the jumps, proving a lack of explosive power that I missed when I first watched him play games. His 20 bench press reps, while not terrible, were a little disappointing for someone of his size.
On the field, Hill looks like a powerful, downhill runner. He can break a few tackles and power through the holes that are there. However, he does seem to miss a few holes and isn’t very elusive in the open field. He would be best in a one cut scheme where he just plants his foot and goes. Off the field is where the questions start to pile up. He has sexual misconduct convictions in his background as well as a battery charge. With active probation currently in effect, he is going to need to land on the right team in the right city to help him keep him out of trouble. He has some talent as a straight ahead runner and could be a solid early down back, but the number of question marks makes him quite the risk.
Ka’Deem Carey (-7.120)
In the interest of full disclosure, I’ve never been as high on Carey as a lot of other people were. I just didn’t see the same electric talent as they did. Since the combine, I’ve dropped him even further down my list as a lot of the items I saw were confirmed by his performance. Carey has okay size at 5’9” and 207 pounds, but his 40 yard dash time just destroyed him. A 4.70 second time in the dash at his size is a disaster. Combine that with below average showings in every other drill and in my opinion you have a player who is lacking the physical tools required at the next level.
Arguably the most productive running back in college over the last two years, Carey leaves college with back to back 300+ carry, 1,880+ yards, and 19+ rushing touchdowns. On his career, he had 820 touches with 714 of them coming in the last two years. If you’re someone who shied away from Montee Ball last year due to workload concerns, you need to look away from Carey as well. In terms of production, I’m of the camp that believes it had a lot to do with the system Arizona ran. The wide open, spread style created a lot of open lanes and didn’t require him to make much happen or to even make many reads.
In the open field, Carey’s lack of speed was pretty obvious. He also had only average elusiveness from what I’ve seen. I honestly don’t see much, outside of his ability to catch passes that translates well to the NFL. When you toss in some off the field character questions you get a player who could slide down draft boards. I see Carey as a part of a committee, probably the minor part, and that’s about it. But I’m lower on him than most.
How does all of this translate to my rankings of the top ten running backs in the 2014 class? Let’s take a look. The first tier has my three running backs who are feel are ready to step in as three down backs in the NFL right away. The second tier are those who might need some time to make that transition out of a committee role or who have major question marks. Those in the third tier are similar to the second tier, but I feel they are less talented.
Tier 1
1) Carlos Hyde
2) Bishop Sankey
3) Charles Sims
Tier 2
4) Tre Mason
5) Lache Seastrunk
6) Isaiah Crowell
7) Terrance West
Tier 3
8) Andre Williams
9) Jeremy Hill
10) Ka’Deem Carey
That’s it for my look at the running back class and their combine performance. Next on my list is to go back through the last two wide receiver classes and convert them to the new method for easier comparison and to try to help figure out the most likely second and third year breakout receivers.
Thanks for reading!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
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- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
