Running Back Combine Analysis: Part Two

Jacob Feldman

hydeLate every February, several weeks after the Super Bowl is complete and just as our withdrawals for the NFL are almost at the point where our significant others think we might be cured of our addiction, the NFL combine rolls around. We flood to the TV and our computers to watch the new crop of rookies run, jump, catch, and lift. We even get excited about seeing how they are built, which is really a strange thing when you think about it!

The major problem with the combine, other than our wives and others not understanding why we care about it since it “Isn’t real football,” is we often don’t know what we learned. Obviously we know that faster and stronger is better, but how much does it matter? If someone runs a 4.3 second time in the 40 yard dash but then turns around and only jumps 30 inches in the vertical jump and runs a 4.5 second time in the 20 yard shuttle does that matter? The short answer is yes, but the better question is how much does it matter?

For the last few years I’ve been trying to help answer those questions by sifting through the combine data and trying to lend a little statistical assistance to the wide receiver and running back groups. In the past few years this has taken on several different formats, but I decided to restructure everything for this year. The goal was to help fix some of the issues I wasn’t very happy with for the past few years in hopes of getting even more accurate reflections of the players to watch, and I feel much better about the results.

For the complete breakdown of the statistical method and baseline data, make you check out yesterday’s article. We continue with the last two groups of the statistically disappointing class of 2014.

Okay (Scores between -2 and 0. Steven Ridley, Shonn Greene, LeVeon Bell range)

Terrance West (-0.226)
Tim Cornett (-0.475)
Henry Josey (-0.532)
Adam Muema (-0.566)
Charles Sims (-0.598)
Damien Williams (-0.790)
Marion Grice (-0.995)
George Atkinson (-1.253)
Lorenzo Taliaferro (-1.282)

There was some confusion with the wide receiver articles about exactly what a negative score means. It simply means that from a physical standpoint, the player isn’t as physically gifted as the average weekly fantasy starter at the position. If you look at the veterans listed for this group, Ridley, Greene and Bell have all been solid fantasy assets and every week starters at some point in their career. However, they aren’t the most physically gifted running backs in the game. Just because a player falls in this group doesn’t mean they are bad. It just means they aren’t a gifted athlete when compared to other starting running backs.

When looking at this group, a pair of big names finally appear with Sims and West. Both of them are in my top ten and will be talked about later. The scores for Grice and Muema are incomplete because they didn’t participate in any drills, so I’m going to leave them out of the discussion as well and focus on the players who did participate in the combine.

Cornett had a pretty nice combine. He checked in at 6’0” and 209 pounds, which is a little lean for his height, but it isn’t too bad. Running faster than a 4.5 is a pretty nice speed for his size, and he showed good burst in the drills as well. Unfortunately, very little of that seems to be true when he puts the pads on and plays in a game. He seems to have very little wiggle in the limited viewings I’ve made and he doesn’t power through very many defenders. He’ll be lucky to stay on an NFL roster for the whole season.

Josey is a player you want to see succeed after an absolutely terrible knee injury back in 2011. He destroyed pretty much every piece of tissue in his left knee (ACL, MCL, patellar tendon, and both menisci). Given the nature of the injury, it is amazing he even made it back, but it speaks to his character and work ethic. To do so and perform at a high level is even rarer. He’s a smaller speed back, measuring in at 5’8” and 194 pounds with 4.43 wheels. His acceleration is what sets him apart, both at the combine and on tape, but durability has to be a question mark. His size is also going to limit him a bit, but he could be a player who surprises in the right system as a part of a committee.

Damien Williams is on the opposite end of the spectrum from Josey. Not only is Williams a bigger back at 5’11” and 222 pounds, but he also has major character red flags. He saw his playing time cut before he was suspended and eventually released from the team this year. He has great speed for his size and catches the ball very well, but he isn’t as elusive as most of the good backs and didn’t run with as much power as I expected given his size. With the red flags, he is going to be an end of roster player in the NFL and need to prove he can be trusted.

Atkinson is more of a workout warrior and return man than a true running back in my opinion. If he caught better, he might be better suited to a wide receiver role than running back. He has good speed for his size and has good explosiveness, but he doesn’t have the cutting and elusiveness of an NFL running back. Look elsewhere.

When one of the fellow staffers first mentioned Taliaferro a few months ago, I honestly thought he was making up a random name. I assure you he is real and he’s a very big running back. He’s 6’0” and 229 pounds, but he plays like he’s even bigger. He is pretty far from fast, but he’s surprisingly agile given his size and he’s a punishing runner. He is going to have a hard time turning the corner on outside runs in the NFL, but he could easily be the power part of a committee as he is a very effective inside runner. He also has a nice set of hands and has the strength to develop into a nice blocker. Keep an eye on his landing spot as he might be worthy of a late round flier on the right team.

The Rest (Scores under -2. Alfred Morris, Joique Bell, BenJarvis Green-Ellis range) 

David Fluellen (-2.104)
Carlos Hyde (-3.125)
James White (-3.247)
Silas Redd (-3.292)
Devonta Freeman (-3.391)
Storm Johnson (-4.515)
Jeremy Hill (-5.007)
James Wilder (-5.434)
Kapri Bibbs (-5.955)
Ka’Deem Carey (-7.120)
Timothy Flanders (-7.413)
Alfred Blue (-8.093)
DeAnthony Thomas (-8.496)
Antonio Andrews (-10.932)
Jerome Smith (-11.850)

There are a lot of names here. The majority of the ones you haven’t heard of before will be end of the draft or undrafted players in the NFL, so they won’t belong on fantasy rosters. Let me focus on the others. Hyde, Hill and Carey are all in my top ten running backs and will be addressed in a follow up.

One of the more high profile runners in this group outside of my top ten is Freeman. A lot of people like him and he does have nice size at 5’8” and 206 pounds. Unfortunately, size is pretty much his only positive mark in this metric. For his size, he is slower, less agile and less explosive than the majority of the baseline group. When I watch Freeman on film, I see the same thing. He is a nice college back, but he isn’t anything special. To me he has the look of a career backup who will struggle should he ever get the chance to step up. The best example of a career path would be Javon Ringer.

Johnson is another player you hear about from time to time as a potential third round sleeper on some people’s fantasy draft boards. Based solely on his combine performance, Johnson is a little lean for his height and lacks some strength. He is also quite a bit slower than one would hope for, but he does have decent explosiveness. On film, Johnson shows good vision and is a nice one cut runner. He displays more power in his running than the combine would suggest, but is not a home run threat. He does a nice job of catching the ball but struggles in pass protection. I view him as more of a change of pace back than a starter, but there is a slim chance he could develop into a starter in a few years.

The third bigger name on this list who is outside of my top ten is Thomas. I’ve never been as high on Thomas or his former teammate LaMichael James as some others have been. I feel they are both similar in that they are incomplete players who happen to be great fits for the college game but don’t have a role in the NFL. At 5’9” and only 174 pounds, he isn’t faster enough or strong enough to play running back in the NFL. If you want a small burner for a running back, Archer is the much better choice.

That’s it for the running back class. I’ll be back with a more detailed look at my top ten runners as well as my ranking for the top ten running backs at this point in time tomorrow. Overall, I think this group is rather underwhelming and one of the weakest running back groups in the last several years. There are a few of them with some upside in the right situation, but I’ll be shocked if there are any top running backs who come out of this draft class.

Thanks for reading!

jacob feldman