Age Discrimination?

Jeff Miller

As somebody fairly new to the dynasty format, I was caught off guard by how much of a disparity there is between my fellow scribes on the topic of player age. The schools of thought are wide and varied, with most having a solid foundation for their take. While this is something I am planning to dive into more fully in the near future, my research for that project led me to the topic at hand.

It would seem that every year there are a handful of veteran players who end up wildly underrated due to any number of factors. The most common characteristics these players share are advanced age and poor recent performance. Ignoring what could be the onset of a significant career decline would be folly, but wading through the public perception trash heap will often net you some gems. I am going to skip the obvious candidates (two of whom our own Eric Olinger covered expertly in a recent column) and talk about a couple players who can be had for dirt cheap.

Greg Jennings, WR MIN

We have my old friend Cordarrelle Patterson to thank for this one, as his late season surge completely overshadowed the great work being done by Jennings. Here is a look at how our subject performed in games with Matt Cassel under center:

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I’ve been spouting off on Twitter about Jennings for quite a while now and have been surprised how few people have any level of awareness of his productivity. Imagine if he had a decent offensive coordinator!?!

Norv Turner comes to Minnesota looking to put the pieces together in what could be a pretty effective offense. Adrian Peterson will keep linebackers and safeties honest, Kyle Rudolph should take off under Norv’s guidance, and Cordarrelle Patterson, for all his faults, will force opposing defensive coordinators to always account for him. All this will serve to free up Jennings to play all over the field (something he did very effectively last year). It will also allow him more than his fair share of single coverage opportunities on deep passes, which have always been his bread and butter.

From a pure skills standpoint, I don’t see much, if any, decline in Jennings tape. He still has the speed to get behind defenses, shows plenty of quickness to work from the slot, and his hands netted him the 12th highest catch rate among the 37 wide receivers with 100 or more targets in 2013.

I know many owners would rather look for a younger player they view as having high upside at the point in drafts where Jennings is going, but I’d posit that the odds of finding anybody that late with top-15 upside at any point in their career, much less for 2014, are pretty slim.

Brian Hartline, WR MIA

Hartline is a bit younger than Jennings (and most players I considered for this article). Yet for some reason he gets the old guy treatment from owners. The Dolphin receiver is ranked as DLF’s WR56, which drafters seem to agree with (his current ADP is WR61). This would make a lot more sense if he was over 30 years old, unproductive, or in a bad situation. Instead, he is 27, on what should be an improved offense, and has been a surprisingly productive player the last two seasons.

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With Knowshon Moreno in town and Tannehill’s hopeful improvement (which it seems our rankers are predicting, as they’ve made him their 12th ranked quarterback), there isn’t much reason to think Hartline will regress in the near future. It must be said that it isn’t too likely Hartline will win you a bunch of weeks on his own (he has topped 20 points only four times in his last 32 games), but he will almost never lose you one either (he scored 10 or more points 11 times in 2013).

I wouldn’t suggest you should dream of having him as your WR3, but he is the sort of player you can start every week and never worry about. He is also the perfect player to get added to trades or to use on a team where you gutted your depth to acquire some high priced talent. I personally dealt the 2.12 to make him my WR4 in a league where I lack depth. I would do that deal 100 times out of 100.

Honorable Mention

There are a handful of other older players going super late in startup mocks who have the potential to help you win games:

  • Fred Jackson is a C.J. Spiller injury away from being a totally unspectacular low-end RB2 for one more season.
  • Steve Smith has boring, but steady WR3 potential in Baltimore.
  • Shonn Greene may actually end up as the starter on a team with a solid offensive line.
  • Stevie Johnson’s Buffalo career is coming to a close. Employed as a WR2 on a decent team, he is a very Hartline-esque player.
  • James Jones has the potential to be a low-end WR3 many weeks. Matt Schaub is mostly done, but the Raiders figure to trail a lot this season and will need to throw to keep up.
  • Pierre Thomas is once again set to get a nice workload. With no Darren Sproles in town, he is a lock to at least see passing down work and should once again be a very useful fantasy player.

Where is the Upside?

Many of you will ignore this advice and stick with youngsters to fill out your roster. While that is a totally viable strategy, I believe it is also a gross misapplication of the concept of upside. To me, upside can be anything from a young, raw player who may develop into something useable to a veteran who is very likely to vastly outperform his price over a 12 or 24 month window. NFL careers are short and a huge percentage of players going in the 15th round or later don’t end up being anything more than roster depth, cast aside in a season or two as owners chase that elusive upside once again.

So, why not snag one or two grizzled veterans who you know will produce at a startable level? They give a roster stability and can often free you up to deal from sexier depth to improve your team elsewhere.

You can follow Jeff on Twitter @FFJeffM.

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