Losing His Stripes: The Value of Dorial Green-Beckham
By now everyone with a beating pulse and an eye on college football knows Dorial Green-Beckham has been released from the University of Missouri. Why is that important news? Well, Green-Beckham (DGB for short) is a 6 foot 6 inch, 220 pound wide receiver who set the scouting world ablaze after finishing his senior year at Hillcrest High School with 119 receptions, 2,233 yards and 24 touchdowns back in 2011. He’s also been a “devy darling” and a focal point of dynasty discussions for the better part of two seasons while playing at Missouri. After a lackluster and somewhat disappointing freshman season, Green-Beckham reminded us why he was such a highly recruited wide receiver by showcasing an extremely strong finish to his sophomore season. Unfortunately, as with too many superstar athletes today, the off field bad news seems to follow DGB’s jaw dropping potential between the hash marks much like thunder follows lightning.
So, just how bad is the rap sheet?
In 2012, Dorial Green-Beckham and two other freshman teammates were arrested on suspicion of marijuana possession and later pleaded guilty to trespassing. Green-Beckham also suffered a one game suspension for that infraction. In January 2014, he was arrested again, this time on suspicion of drug activity after police officers found roughly a pound of marijuana inside a vehicle he was riding in during a traffic stop. In this particular instance, DGB was released from custody without being charged. That brings us to the latest troubling episode, a fluid story that allegedly involves a girlfriend, some type of forced entry and possible physical abuse. ESPN and other media outlets are reporting this case has been closed without an arrest largely because of reluctant witnesses.
These are sobering accusations for a serious situation and I certainly don’t want to make light of the gravity surrounding this latest incident, nor do I intend to pass judgment. Actually, I’m just trying to be honest in discussing this story from a fantasy football perspective. I say that because usually one of the first thoughts people have after a situation like this is, “how does this impact my favorite football team?” In this case, the biggest question for fantasy football owners is directly tied to DGB’s worth in developmental leagues and how this latest news impacts his future value. Off field risk is a tough pill to swallow for many dynasty owners especially after the sour taste left behind by talented players like Justin Blackmon and Kenny Britt. This is, however, a perfect example of the line of delineation that exists between risk adverse owners and fantasy football managers who can digest the danger and uncertainty that usually surround an opportunity to acquire unique upside at a discounted price. We could talk about the pros and cons associated with pro-risk and risk averse strategies for a millennium and I’m sure both camps would bring unbridled passion to the discussion, but for the sake of this article, let’s focus on the value of the main character in our story.
On the football field, Dorial Green-Beckham has an amazing set of skills. Precision usually isn’t a word I associate with size and strength, but in this instance, Green-Beckham uses both assets with an uncanny “exactness” to lock down his position and gain an advantage against opposing defensive backs with regularity and physical ease. He also exhibits a high level of fluidity and good vision in the open field to go along with an instinctual sense of awareness. Truthfully, there really isn’t much Dorial Green-Beckham can’t do with pads on. He high points well, leaps through the roof, tracks the ball over either shoulder, isn’t afraid to go over the middle, doesn’t avoid contact and gets off the line of scrimmage without losing much transitional speed. He still needs work on his route tree and needs some overall refinement and polishing, but DGB’s upside from under a football microscope makes you do the “three S move” – stop, stare and shake your head (in disbelief).
So, back to the question at hand.
What is Dorial Green-Beckham really worth in devy leagues now that he’s been released from Missouri? My answer……he’s worth just as much as he was before his release, but this new and disturbing situation may provide folks with a window to buy at a reduced price. Look, obviously he needs a lot of guidance and some serious professional help, but from strictly a football perspective, he’ll receive help along with another chance to play in college and ultimately the opportunity to transition to the NFL. Yes, there are serious risks associated with investing in DGB, but the upside is so evident it practically feels tangible. I’ll be aggressively trying to acquire him in any developmental league where I don’t already have him on my roster. Bottom line, I’d rather swing and miss on that type of talent than play it safe, especially when new circumstances could provide a lower price point.
Follow me on Twitter @FFHoudini.
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