One Man’s Rookie Rankings with Commentary: Part One
The Combine is behind us and the NFL Draft is less than a month away. Rookie drafts are starting (two in the books for me) and dynasty owners are hooked with a case of rookie fever. Rankings are still very fluid at this point, but it’s clear this draft has a lot more depth than last year’s.
Given Combine and pro day performances, here are how my rankings are shaking out. Keep in mind the rankings of certain players (i.e., Marqise Lee, Donte Moncrief, Jordan Matthews, etc.) do not align with the current thinking of the dynasty community. For receivers, their catch technique is huge. If a particular player traps the ball into his body and does not properly catch the ball away from his body with a fluid motion consistently, I will drop him in my rankings – that’s a huge red flag for NFL potential in my eyes.
Note: Rankings are based PPR scoring (1 point across all positions); picks 5-15, in particular, are extremely fluid and will continue to be until the NFL draft concludes.
1.) Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson
Watkins is the bona-fide top rookie pick given his consistency throughout his college career. He’s the safest pick given his college production, speed, size and athleticism. It’s going to be difficult to bump him from this spot.
2.) Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M
Evans and Watkins are the clear top two picks headed into rookie drafts. Evans is a big physical receiver with a wide catch radius and soft hands who should excel at the next level.
3.) Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State
Many will compare Cooks to Tavon Austin, but aside from being a speedy all-purpose weapon, Austin and Cooks are different players. Cooks is actually a bigger and much more polished receiver whose route running is more refined. Cooks is also 13 pounds heavier and two inches taller, so he is built more like Randall Cobb and Steve Smith than Austin.
Putting aside Cooks’ size and polish, an undersold quality to his game is his ability to play both the inside and outside receiver positions. He’s not receiving the same hype Austin did in 2013, but he should be. For me, he’s the better prospect and I expect Cooks to have a better NFL career.
4.) Carlos Hyde, RB Ohio State
This is a big fella, but that’s not all he has going for him. At 6’0 230 pounds, he flashes quality lateral agility, quick feet and fluidity on the field. Couple that with his underrated hands and he’s a back who should be a top rookie pick if he lands in a decent situation. The one downside is his north/south style isn’t terribly conducive to today’s pass heavy game. Regardless, he should be the top back off the board in rookie drafts.
5.) Tre Mason, RB Auburn
The similarity with Marion Barber is uncanny. He runs with that same aggressive style. The question is whether he can hold up given the physical nature of his style and his size. He’s on the smaller side at 5’8”, 207 pounds, but he plays big. Mason exhibited nice explosion at the combine with his vertical and broad jump performances. I like him given his college production and potential to be an every down back, but durability is the big question given his style.
6.) Bishop Sankey, RB Washington
Sankey is a solid all around player as a dual threat on the ground and in the passing game (despite limited opportunities in college, he’s shown soft hands). My main issue is he has bouts of indecisiveness and often dances behind the line of scrimmage. Because of that, I don’t see him as a feature back. Despite that belief, given his speed and the fact his hands appear decent, I still believe he’ll hold decent value in PPR leagues.
7.) Eric Ebron, TE North Carolina
Ebron is the perfect prospect given the success of similar receiving tight ends. He lacks in the blocking department, but as we’ve seen, the more important aspect is the ability to create mismatches up the seam – that’s exactly what Ebron can do. He still needs to improve his blocking, but his receiving ability and athleticism make him a top option in rookie drafts.
8.) Davante Adams, WR Fresno State
Underrated. Adams reminds me of Hakeem Nicks with the ability to stay healthy and on the field. Track speed is the concern with Adams, but he has ideal size and the natural hands to succeed at the next level. His ability to snatch the ball is one of the more appealing aspects to his game.
9.) Odell Beckham, WR LSU
Beckham tested well at the Combine and has shown improvement in his ability to catch the ball away from his body. Early on, he didn’t flash that, but he’s really improved in that area over the course of his college career. He needs to continue to apply that consistently to succeed at the NFL level. Additionally, despite the concern of many about his size, his build is adequate for an NFL receiver. He also is coming from a pro-style offense which will help significantly. If you’re looking for more details on Beckham, Cian Fahey does an excellent job of breaking Beckham’s game down in this article.
10.) Charles Sims, RB West Virginia
Sims is receiving a lot of support from draft pundits as of late with the Matt Forte comparisons. He’s quickly becoming a favorite ‘sleeper’ for many as a potential dual threat. Important in PPR leagues, Sims is a solid pass-catcher given that he posted over 200 receptions in his four-year college career at Houston and West Virginia. In short, he’s an all-around back who comes with solid NFL potential.
11.) Lache Seastrunk, RB Baylor
Seastrunk has some serious lower body strength. Like Mason, he exhibited great explosive ability at the Combine. However, there are a few concerns. First, he really disappointed with his 40 time at the combine. In addition, hasn’t been very involved in the passing game to date. His college offense also created huge running lanes in the spread offensive scheme. Will that translate? It’s definitely a concern. He has the natural talent and ability to be a solid complementary back and potentially a lead back, but he needs to improve before becoming a consistent NFL contributor. That currently slates him as a mid-to-late first rounder.
12.) Allen Robinson, WR Penn State
Robinson isn’t the game changer you’d expect from a receiver his size and his 4.60 combine performance will end up limiting his upside. His production at Penn State was phenomenal with over 1,000 yards in his past two seasons, but given the lack of speed, he appears to be destined to be a solid number two receiver with limited upside. He appears to be a relatively safe option.
13.) Kelvin Benjamin, WR Florida State
Benjamin is certainly an intriguing prospect with a high ceiling given his 6’5” 230 plus pound frame and enormous 84-inch wingspan. However, he’s already 23, drops passes frequently and exhibits inconsistent play. If he can become more consistent and eliminate the drops, Benjamin could ultimately excel. While the physical attributes are there, though, he could very well bust. He’s the perfect boom or bust candidate.
14.) Marqise Lee, WR USC
Lee’s size (too slight), durability and hands are concerning. He makes some nice catches, but there are too many instances where he uses his body to catch the ball in traffic. He also has some “alligator arms” action happening. I don’t view him as a player with stud potential and believe he will struggle at the NFL level given these factors.
15.) Isaiah Crowell, RB Alabama State
Crowell is a premium talent with an extracurricular background that may kill his stock. He started his college career at Georgia, played quite well, but was arrested on a weapons charge which ultimately led brought him to Alabama State. The positive thing for Crowell is that the charges were dropped and he doesn’t have a criminal record, but it’s still on the minds of NFL executives as many asked him about the 2012 arrest.
He’s a top talent in this class and because of that, he’s a risk-reward pick who could pay off handsomely. His draft round selection will be key as it will show just how much NFL teams buy Crowell’s story on his off the field issues. If he’s drafted early day three or sooner, he’ll shoot up my rankings. If he goes undrafted given the off-the-field issues, he’ll drop like a rock. On talent alone, he’s up at the top of this class.
16.) Jace Amaro, TE Texas Tech
Another receiver-heavy tight end, Amaro should be used in the NFL much like he was used in college – split out wide in the slot. A 49ers scout reportedly told Amaro he resembles Vernon Davis. Stepping foot into the Combine and leading his fellow tight end participants in virtually every category certainly helps with that comparison. With over 100 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving in his final college season, Amaro projects as a joker tight end who is a perfect option for a second receiving tight end. He’d be a great addition to the Patriots, for example, to fill the Aaron Hernandez role and to complement Rob Gronkowski.
17. Jeremy Hill, RB LSU
Hill has character concerns (one sexual battery and two simple battery arrests) and he also ran pretty slow at the combine with a 4.66 40-time. At a similar size, Andre Williams ran a full tenth of a second faster (4.56). The good thing for Hill is he plays faster on the field than the track. Hill runs angry, but isn’t terribly elusive which may relegate him to a hammer/closer type role in the NFL.
18. Terrance West, RB Towson
West comes with a nice backstory having spent a year out of football in search of a college football program after being raised in a rough Baltimore city. He continues to beat the odds and now appears to be NFL bound. This surfacing of West’s talent isn’t out of the blue, though. He was recruited by both Clemson and Maryland, but couldn’t get eligible to play at that level. Because of that, he landed at Towson and tore up the lower level competition to the tune of 2,500 plus yards and 42 touchdowns…last season. He posted 4,800 plus yards rushing and 84 touchdowns in his three-year career at Towson. Some may shrug that off given the competition, but keep in mind this kid put up 22 for 79 yards in a competitive game with LSU. Imagine if he hand a comparable powerhouse offensive line.
West possesses prototypical running back size at 5’9”, 225 pounds, makes quick decisive cuts at the line of scrimmage and runs with power. He remains an underrated dynasty option given the overemphasis of his college competition. My belief is that West will come of the board in the NFL draft earlier than expected given his better than anticipated 40 time at the Combine and his natural on-field abilities.
19. Martavis Bryant, WR Clemson
Bryant doesn’t have a tremendous amount of production from his time at Clemson, but his measurables are compelling. Many compare him to Stephen Hill given the athleticism and potential, but he catches a heck of a lot better than Hill ever did. That’s not to say he doesn’t struggle with drops, but he’s much better than Hill was in this aspect of their game. He’s a boom-bust candidate and worth a relatively high pick given his potential. He does carry the ‘better in shorts than pads’ concern – so we need to be aware of that as we head into the draft.
20. Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE Washington
Once believed to be the slam-dunk top tight end prospect, expectations have since tempered. ASJ has the basketball background many NFL teams cover, but he hasn’t progressed as much as expected. He still needs to play more consistently and is not a great blocking tight end. That said, he possesses the unique size/speed combo many NFL teams are currently targeting.
Don’t see one of your favorites yet? Tune into DLF tomorrow as we go through my #21 through #38 ranked rookies.
