Roster Risk Players: Pre-Draft Edition

One of the super nerdy ideas I have in my head for an article is to identify all of the different types of risk a player deemed as a dynasty asset can have. So far, I have identified six. Fortunately, you will be spared that full examination for the time being as I’ve decided to write this article first, which deals with just one of those six types of risk.

For the moment, I’m using the term “roster risk.” The (very fluid) definition of roster risk is when a player’s value is overly sensitive to changes in his team’s depth chart. Sometimes this can be because that player’s value is disproportionately dependent on their current position on his team’s depth chart as compared to what his actual talent would justify. But it can also just be because the perception of a player can change easily based on changes to his team’s roster.

A good example of a player with high roster risk is/was Lamar Miller, who was anointed a starting job during an off-season, which is usually a red flag for this type of risk. The signing of Knowshon Moreno has, as far as I can tell, severely damaged Miller’s value to many (perhaps most) owners. This reaction to the addition of a relatively mediocre player like Moreno shows you Miller had a high level of roster risk. If Moreno was signed by the Vikings, I don’t think it would’ve moved the needle at all for Adrian Peterson who, of course, has very low roster risk. Hopefully that example helps explain what I mean.

Of course, we are rapidly approaching the single biggest event of the off-season for sudden and dramatic changes to rosters, and thus for roster risk explosions. I often view the draft (and to a lesser extent, free agency) as a gauntlet the players I own have to run through every off-season, while I stand idly buy, crossing my fingers and hoping none of them get smacked with a value hit. The draft is the most dangerous time for players with high roster risk, and it is for that reason I thought it’d be a good moment to discuss some key players who are at risk of experiencing a negative movement in their value come draft day.

For the purposes of this article, I am going to be focusing on a player’s value as a dynasty asset, as opposed to what kind of production that player is likely to provide for your team. In other words, I’ll be primarily concerned with what his trade value is likely to do over a given period of time, so be thinking in terms of these players as a buy/sell opportunity.

I will also be focusing on key players. I don’t think anyone needs me to point out that Chad Henne or Shonn Greene might be in for an ADP drop. Also try to keep in mind that just because I think a player’s value may change does not mean I personally agree with that change, be it negative or positive. If some of the scenarios I lay out below happen, I will be looking at it as an opportunity to buy.

With all that being said, let’s take a look at some players who can be tagged with the dreaded roster risk label.

Arian Foster, RB HOU

Coming off an injury-plagued season and a year in which he aged by approximately one year, Foster’s dynasty stock has taken a pretty significant dive this off-season. After being a first round pick in most startups just a year ago, Foster’s most recent ADP in Ryan McDowell’s mock draft series was #60 overall, just behind Christine Michael. DLF staff members have him ranked as the seventeenth running back.

The narrative is so easy, it’s almost lazy. Foster is going to be 28 before the season starts. His 2013 campaign was ended prematurely due to back injuries. He’s had an extremely heavy workload over the last four seasons. He is breaking down, his window is closing, etc., etc. The only missing from the gloomy outlook on Foster’s dynasty value is the one thing the NFL Draft can provide – an heir apparent.

And frankly, it’s very easy to see this one coming. The Texans do not have a lot of proven players behind Foster. Dennis Johnson is an intriguing player to hold in deep leagues, but I will be very surprised if Houston stands pat with the current running back group, especially considering Foster’s back. The fact they didn’t sign anyone in free agency pretty much turns over one of their hole cards in my opinion – the Texans are going to draft a running back and it’s going to be someone they think can be an immediate backup, not just to provide roster depth or special teams tackles. Of course, with the way running backs are valued these days (or, more to the point, not valued) this could be a player selected anywhere from the second to the fifth round.

If you already own Foster and are happy to ride him into the ground for another year or two, then there’s not much you can or should do – just recognize that another dent in your running back’s dynasty value is coming. If you’re not looking to sell, this doesn’t really matter. But if he’s someone you’ve been thinking about shopping, I would consider making it a priority before the NFL draft happens.

Andre Ellington, RB ARI

Unlike Foster, Ellington is at the dawn of his career, coming of an impressive rookie campaign in which he averaged 5.5 yards per carry, put up 39 receptions, and broke several long plays. I like Ellington and believe in his ability. The main reason he’s being included is because, like the Texans, it’s very obvious the Cardinals need to bring in another running back who can contribute immediately. Even if Ellington turns out to be a three-down player, which is far from certain, the Cardinals are seriously undermanned behind him, with just Stepfan Taylor, Jonathan Dwyer and Ryan Williams on the roster. Yes, Ryan Williams is still on the roster.

I don’t think the Cardinals need to take someone high in the draft. Running backs are cheap and they would be well served with a one-dimensional power back type to compliment Ellington, which are cheaper still. Still, this article is about roster risk and there is certainly a chance the Cardinals end up spending a second or third round pick on a complete running back prospect who makes fantasy owners begin to wonder what they have in Ellington. If the narrative changes and Ellington begins to be viewed more as a complimentary player, his value will take a hit.

As an Ellington fan myself, I actually think this could create a good buying opportunity, but if you’re less convinced that he’s the real deal, I’d look to sell on him before the draft happens.

Justin Blackmon, WR JAX

I own Blackmon in several leagues. Light a candle for me. He’s a difficult player to value because his upside is a tremendous, but unfortunately so are the chances he never reaches and maintains it on a consistent basis (and yes, this has to do with an entirely different type of risk). There has been virtually no information on Blackmon’s situation, he’s simply suspended until he’s not.

However, the draft gives us an opportunity to find out what the Jaguars are thinking about Blackmon and his future role in the team. Cecil Shorts is a competent wide receiver, but after him, the Jaguars do not have anyone on their roster who they should feel comfortable starting in 2014 and beyond. As you’ve undoubtedly heard, everyone is in love with the incoming rookie wide receiver class, particularly because of how deep it is. If the Jaguars spend a second round pick on a receiver, I think it should set off some alarm bells about how they perceive Blackmon’s chances of being a part of the team moving forward. Alternatively, if they don’t prioritize receiver in the draft, perhaps it’s a sign they think Blackmon is going to be able to contribute in 2014.

Either way, it’s not going to completely clear up the Blackmon situation, but it will give us another tea leaf to read. If the Jaguars take a wide receiver high in the draft, say in the top three rounds, it might cause Blackmon’s already dropping stock to sink further. If you have been thinking about cutting your losses, I’d cut them in the month of April.

Riley Cooper/Jeremy Maclin, WRs PHI

I expect these two to experience a decent bump in value with the departure of DeSean Jackson, amidst a team smear campaign that would make the ownership of the Boston Red Sox proud. Still, there’s a lot of reason for the Eagles to dip into this rookie wide receiver class and depending on who they take, that value-bump could quickly evaporate.

Cooper’s “breakout” season, for which he was rewarded with a five year contract, was still just a 47-reception effort. He’s a nice player, and certainly a good fit for what the Eagles want to do, but he’s hardly a “go-to receiver.” Maclin has more of a track record and is a former first round pick, but since coming into the league in 2009, he has never had a 1,000 yard season and is now coming off an ACL injury. Maclin took a one year “prove it” deal, so even if he does rebound with a nice 2014 season, he may not be long for Philadelphia anyway.

The Eagles don’t have anyone else on the roster who looks like an NFL starter and I think they are a prime candidate to draft another receiver. If you’re looking to get something for Cooper, or shop Maclin was the Eagles #1 receiver now that Jackson is gone, I would get on that immediately. 

Markus Wheaton, WR PIT

Wheaton is exactly the kind of player who roster risk can affect the most. He is, as of this moment, the presumptive replacement for Emmanuel Sanders, who left town for the Broncos during free agency. I like Wheaton as a sleeper, but I’m not sure if he can be appropriately labeled that anymore.

I am wary of players who get a huge value bump based solely on depth chart movement because once that depth chart changes again, say by the addition of a rookie, the foundation for that value change has evaporated. Wheaton caught just six passes his rookie season, so it’s clear he hasn’t “earned” a starting role, he’s more getting one by default because Sanders left and the Steelers don’t have the cap room to bring in someone else. With Lance More as the only receiver with starting experience behind Antonio Brown, look for the Steelers to take a wide receiver early in this draft, which will severely muddy the waters with respect to Wheaton’s value.

Honorable Mention

Steven Jackson, RB ATL

He’s not a significant dynasty “asset,” and therefore fell out of the scope of this article. That said, if you’re holding him as a short-term option, I think you should be prepared for the Falcons to bring in a complementary player. As with the other situations mentioned above, the size of the knock on Jackson’s value will have a direct relationship to the round in which another running back is drafted.

Jake Locker, QB TEN

In two quarterback or super-flex leagues, Locker still holds some value, but that could take a huge hit if the Titans decide to move on and draft a quarterback with the eleventh overall pick (or move up to get someone in the top ten). I don’t think it’s likely that happens, but if you’re an owner who doesn’t need Locker, I would want to get out now, before the Titans get the chance to replace him and while there are still some fumes in the air about his relatively successful stretch in 2013 before his injury.

Hakeem Nicks, WR IND

I’ve still yet to hear a compelling argument about why Nicks is going to return to his former level of player this year when he hasn’t been able to in the past. In my opinion, he was on a “prove it” deal last season and he proved he doesn’t have it anymore. At this point, Nicks stock is soaring high because he landed with Andrew Luck. But, like the Eagles, if you look at the larger landscape, it seems likely the Colts make receiver a priority. Reggie Wayne is in the same situation as Maclin is, except he’s old enough to be my much older friend. T.Y. Hilton is not a #1 wide receiver in the traditional sense, Da’Rick Rogers is still an unknown and Nicks himself is only on a one year deal, so he will likely not be around in Indianapolis long enough for science to perfect bionic knees.

If the Colts spend a pick to try to land a long-term starter to play and develop with Luck, that will put a dent in Nicks’ stock. He’s a prime sell high candidate for me anyway and I would look to close a deal prior to the draft.