Don’t You (Forget about Me)
In my last article I talked about some players whose hype has gotten a little out of control and I cautioned owners to “Pump the Brakes.” Today I want to talk about some players who have slipped through the cracks so to speak and now I’m suggesting you take advice from the 80’s band Simple Minds and the song “Don’t You (Forget About Me).” Yes, I’m referring to the iconic song from The Breakfast Club and more recently, Pitch Perfect.
Whenever the hype for players grows, it inevitably creates collateral damage and drops other players’ values. Everyone falls victim to recency bias from time-to-time and at this time of year when “Rookie Fever” is running wild, people sometimes forget about players who are coming off of down years or perhaps an injury. It happens every year. A player bounces back and exceeds expectations and pre-season value. The trick is identifying who these players might be and trying to get them while their value outweighs their price tag.
Tavon Austin, WR STL
At this time last year, Austin was everyone’s dynasty darling. He was being touted as a “can’t miss” stud who was neck and neck with Giovani Bernard to be taken first among all rookies. A year later this bandwagon is a whole lot roomier. His rookie campaign wasn’t exactly legendary. He finished with 40 receptions for 418 yards and four touchdowns. He also carried the ball nine times for 151 yards and another score. His 40 receptions actually led the Rams team in 2013, which says all you need to know about his situation. When Sam Bradford went down in week seven with a torn ACL in his left knee, the entire Rams passing “attack” went on injured reserve with him. Austin had 29 of his 40 receptions in the seven games Bradford played in.
With a full season under his belt and Bradford returning to health, Austin has a chance to fulfill expectations. The Rams have a very young group of wide receivers, but they don’t lack talent. He is joined by fellow second year player and college teammate Stedman Bailey, perennial headache and reclamation project Kenny Britt and speedster Chris Givens. Coach Jeff Fisher has gone on record this off-season stating their intention to better utilize Austin moving forward.
His March Dynasty ADP was #76 as the WR35, behind players like Rueben Randle, Jordan Matthews, Terrance Williams and Marqise Lee. He’s currently ranked as the WR32 among the DLF rankers. Now is the time to move in Austin. He has to clean up his mental mistakes from last year and cut down on the drops, but he hasn’t forgotten how to play explosive football. The player is truly a threat to take to the house every time he touches the ball. His rookie season looked an awful lot like those of Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb to me.
Arian Foster, RB HOU
I’ve never quite seen a smear campaign quite like what happened last off-season. The fantasy football Twitter community picked Foster as their Public Enemy #1 and left him for dead. In the seven games he appeared in, he rushed 121 times for 542 yards and one touchdown. He also added 22 receptions for 183 yards and another score. Those numbers projected over a 16 game season would be 276 carries for 1,238 yards and 50 receptions for 276 yards with four total touchdowns, or 197.8 points in PPR leagues, good enough to be the RB18 in 2013.
Obviously extrapolating stats won’t help anyone and pretending injuries don’t happen get you nowhere. Foster had a monster workload the previous three seasons while amassing 1,114 total touches and his body simply broke down. He finished 2013 on injured reserve after undergoing back surgery. Now he enters 2014 with a rested, soon-to-be 28 year old body looking to prove all the naysayers wrong. With a new coach and quarterback in Houston and Ben Tate in Cleveland, the Texans will need Foster firing on all cylinders this season if they want to succeed.
Foster’s days as a top three fantasy running back are very likely over, but I would be extremely shocked if he finished outside of the top ten this season. I expect his touchdown total to be back in double digits and him remaining a key contributor in the passing game, all recipes for success in PPR leagues. Right now, Foster is ranked as the RB17 among DLF rankers and has a March ADP of 60.8 as the RB19 but opinions varied from mock to mock. In the six mock drafts conducted, he was selected #67, #69, #44, #101, #54 and #30.
Roddy White, WR ATL
The 2013 season was not very friendly to the Falcons’ all-time leading receiver. He injured his ankle in a preseason contest, then rushed back to before he was ready to make the start in week one to keep his consecutive games streak alive. It definitely backfired. Not only was he hobbled because of the ankle injury, it probably led to the hamstring injury he sustained by compensating for the bad wheel. His consecutive games played streak came to a halt after the team’s week six bye and he missed the following three games.
When he returned to action, he still wasn’t 100% but improved each week before finishing the season on a white hot tear. From weeks 13 through 17, he totaled 43 receptions for 502 yards and a pair of scores. Over that time period (which just so happens to be the fantasy playoffs), he was the WR4 behind Eric Decker, Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery. He’s obviously not a spring chicken (he’s 32 years old), but he has been as consistent as they come since 2007.
With Julio Jones also returning from injury and Tony Gonzalez retiring, the recipe for success is there for White. Julio is undoubtedly the number one receiver on this team and will be the focal point of the Matt Ryan-led offense, but White will be a target monster underneath and could definitely threaten to catch 90-100 passes again this year.
The tricky part of all this is figuring out what should you pay for a player like White. His March ADP came in as the WR37 at 76.8, in between Justin Hunter and Cecil Shorts. This is robbery in my opinion. I currently have him ranked as my WR25, but collectively we have him ranked as the WR35 on average. If you believe you have a win-now squad and you need one more wide receiver, White should definitely be your target. His price is at a six year low and he will far outperform your investment.
David Wilson, RB NYG
A terrible thing happened on the way to fantasy drafts last year. The hype train derailed and killed everyone in the David Wilson Fan Club. All the caution signs were there – issues in pass protection, ball security problems, a hard line coach who holds a grudge and a resume’ which didn’t include proof he could stay healthy. It was a perfect storm not seen since…well, the year before with Ryan Mathews. Sadly, Wilson rarely saw the field in 2013. He carried the ball just 44 times for 146 yards and one touchdown before finishing the season on injured reserve due to spinal stenosis, a neck injury.
It has been reported he will be ready for training camp and when he does he will find a new player atop the depth chart, newly signed Rashad Jennings, who is a prototypical Tom Coughlin runner who isn’t flashy or explosive and does everything well, but nothing great. This backfield has the look of the attack we’ve seen out of Buffalo the last few years with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Jennings will be the heavy lifter and probable goal line back with Wilson getting around 10-12 touches per game, preferably in space to exploit his game breaking speed.
Dealing with a neck injury is always a risky proposition, but he’s yet to turn 23 years old and sports science has come a long way. His March ADP brought him in as the RB38 with an ADP of 117.5, which is fair. I have him ranked as my RB36 and collectively we have him ranked as our RB33. The way I see it is if you’re willing to overpay on a player like C.J. Spiller who is as inconsistent as they come, why not roll the dice on a cheaper version of him? He might not have 1,500 yard potential, but he is definitely lightning in a bottle.
To wrap all this up, my point of all this is to keep an eye on players whose price might have slipped below their value. Every year recency bias takes over and players are often viewed as washed up far before their actual expiration date. Here’s your chance to walk off the football field like Judd Nelson at the end of The Breakfast Club, fist clinched victoriously over your head.
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Seven - October 24, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Six - October 16, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five - October 10, 2018
