Wide Receiver Combine Analysis: Part Two
Welcome to part two of my statistical look at the NFL combine and the performances of the 2014 wide receiver class. Previously I took a look at a large portion of the draft class, those who actually graded out as being better than the average of the NFL receivers who have been at least WR2s over the last few years. In case you missed that, you can take a look here before you continue on. Today it is time to finish off the draft class. For a refresher, I’ve included the method and baseline data for reference.
Statistical Method
Since the goal of the combine for both NFL teams and fantasy owners alike is to try and figure out which members of the incoming rookie class have what it takes to be at least a starter on an NFL team, it is important to compare them to that group. For that reason, I took the group of wide receivers who have been at least WR2s at some point over the last few seasons and used them as a baseline. I went back and pulled all of their Combine data and calculated the mean and standard deviation for each of the various drills.
Here’s where it gets a little bit more technical. I then took the official combine times for the various drills for the 2014 rookie class and calculated the z-score for each of those drills using the mean and standard deviation from the baseline group. The z-score, for those not familiar with it, is calculated by taking the value (in this case the time or measurement of the 2014 rookie) and subtracting the mean of the baseline group from it. That number is then divided by the deviation of the baseline group. The z-score represents the number of standard deviations a value is away from the mean. In a data set which is normally distributed, which all of the combine drills are, 68% of all data should be between z-scores of -1 and 1, 95% of all data should be between z-scores of -2 and 2, and only 2.5% of all data greater than a z-score of 2 while an additional 2.5% of data is less than a z-score of -2.
What does all of these mean to those who doesn’t really care much about statistics? It simply means the majority of all data, 68% to be exact, will be somewhere between a z-score of -1 and 1 for all of the drills. Scores between 1 and 2 or between -1 and -2 will be rarer but are not uncommon. Anything outside of that range is going to be quite rare though and either means they are severely deficient if they are on the negative end or elite if they are on the positive end.
Once the z-score was calculated for each of the drills, all of the z-scores for each individual were added together to get a composite score. Since a score of zero is the norm and the baseline group was fantasy WR2s or better, any rookie with a positive score is actually more physically gifted than the average of the baseline group. Anyone with a negative score is less physically gifted than the average of the baseline group.
Baseline Data
As mentioned previously, I used a group of veteran wide receivers, 36 in total, who have been WR2s or better in fantasy leagues over the last few years. This list of veterans included the obvious elite receivers such as Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green and Dez Bryant as well as less athletic but equally productive players such as Antonio Brown, Wes Welker and Eric Decker. I have even included new comers who produced at that level such as Alshon Jeffery.
I looked at a total of nine different values for each of the veterans and each of the rookies, assuming they participated in the drill or measurement. Here are the nine I considered, why I considered them, and the mean score for the baseline group:
Height – Bigger receivers are bigger targets. If someone is 6’5”, they don’t need to run as fast or be as agile as someone who is 5’9”. Mean: 73.25 inches (6’1.25”)
BMI (body mass index) – Instead of just using weight, which would largely be proportional to height, BMI is a more accurate measurement of how well built someone is, which is more important than just weight. Mean: 27.427
Hand Size – Receivers with larger hands have shown a tendency to make more sure-handed catches and to have fewer drops. Mean: 9.5 inches
Arm Length – Longer arms means a larger catch radius. Mean: 32.5 inches
40 Yard Dash – The headline act of the combine, the 40 yard dash is all about straight line speed or long speed as it is sometimes called. Mean: 4.472 seconds
Vertical Jump – Measures lower body explosiveness and the ability of the receiver to go up and get a jump ball. Mean: 36.75 inches
Broad Jump – Another measure of explosiveness but this one is more about the ability of the receiver to push off and explode from the line of scrimmage or out of breaks in a route. Mean: 123.929 inches
20 Yard Shuttle – Measures the ability of the receiver to accelerate and decelerate. Mean: 4.246 seconds
Three Cone Drill – This tracks the ability of the receiver to keep their speed up while changing direction which is extremely important in route running. Mean 6.957 seconds
Disclaimers
No statistical study would be complete without a few disclaimers!
1) This score does not represent a complete picture of a prospect, merely a snap shot. This score merely reflects how well their physical size, runs, and jumps compare to the baseline group. There is no attempt to neither quantify nor include extremely important items such as route running, work ethic, mental focus, or anything else of that nature.
2) A high score is not a prediction of success in the NFL. It merely means that player has physical tools that compare favorably to NFL receivers who have been at least fantasy WR2s. Likewise, a negative score does not predict failure in the NFL. It merely means that player’s physical tools are slightly below the average of the baseline group.
3) One of the best indicators of success for a NFL receiver is being selected in the first round of the NFL draft, especially in the first five or six picks. These receivers are successful at a much, much higher rate than those taken anywhere else. Outside of the first round, draft position doesn’t matter much. In fact, the success rate for second round receivers is very near the success rate of seventh round receivers. Give those taken in the first round a little boost.
4) Smaller receivers are at a slight disadvantage in this type of study; however, this is also an accurate reflection of the struggles they will face in the NFL. Life is more difficult if you are a receiver until six feet tall than if you are taller. You need to be faster, quicker, and more efficient because you don’t have that added cushion of size.
5) All data came from the combine and the official measurements. Sometimes players just have a bad day at the combine and drastically improve at their pro day, but it isn’t fair to just take the best score. In order to have a level playing field for all players only measurements from the combine were used.
The Results
Yesterday it was time for the positive group, which means today it is time for the other side of the coin. As I mentioned at the end of the article yesterday, receivers in these groups are not doomed to fail. In fact, quite the opposite is true. Several of them will be extremely successful in the NFL. With a zero sum system like this, nearly half of the top receivers in the NFL need to have negative scores. Of course the closer to zero a player is in this group the better their chances of success. There also seems to be a cut off around -6. The only NFL receivers who have posted at least WR2 numbers and had a score lower are Randall Cobb (his score of -7.176 was due to a terrible combine day that didn’t accurately reflect his abilities) and Antonio Brown (-6.512 was mostly due to his small stature). No one else is below that point, so I won’t spend much time with anyone below that mark.
Respectable (Scores between -2 and 0. Reggie Wayne, Greg Jennings, Brandon Marshall and Steve Smith)
Bennie Fowler (-0.041)
Davante Adams (-0.146)
Martavis Bryant (-0.147)
Sammy Watkins (-0.529)
Devin Street (-0.584)
Marquise Lee (-0.686)
Albert Wilson (-1.258)
Kevin Norwood (-1.577)
Robert Herron (-1.616)
Kelvin Benjamin (-1.649)
Marcus Lucas (-1.844)
Keep in mind that players in this group, even though they have a negative score, are still extremely athletic. The negative score simply means they are slightly below the average of the top receivers in the game today. If you look at the names of the veterans listed, you see some extremely successful players. Don’t doubt these players for an instant; they just need to have another part of their game that makes up for slightly lower athleticism. This could be the size of Marshall, the competitive drive of Smith, or the route running of Wayne.
The biggest names on this list include the biggest names in this draft class, both the literal big man in Benjamin and the figurative one in Watkins. Lee and Adams also make their appearance in this group of names. I’ll spend more time addressing these four in a later article so let’s focus on some of the lesser known names on this list.
Fowler’s score and all of his measurements were almost right on the average of the baseline group. That would be a good thing except when I look at his college games he seems like a very average college receiver, not an average NFL receiver. He doesn’t have any glaring holes as his routes are okay, his speed is adequate, he catches the ball fairly well and he has decent explosiveness. Unfortunately they are all just slightly above average at best. Combine that with his work ethic being questioned from time to time and we might be looking at someone who will never reach his full potential.
Bryant is a player who is starting to become a popular sleeper in dynasty circles and his has the chance to rise up boards as the hype builds. The college teammate of Sammy Watkins, Bryant is a bit of a size-speed freak as he checks in at 6’4” and ran a 4.42 second 40 yard dash. Unfortunately he has a relatively lean build and smaller hands and arms than his height would suggest. He is also mostly a straight line burner and loses a lot of speed when changing directions. Overall he is a raw prospect who needs to work on the finer points of playing the position such as route running and making sure handed catches. He also has some character concerns. Even as the hype builds, he isn’t worth more than a third round flier at this point.
Street is another big receiver, but he’s extremely lean. Add in slightly below average speed and his score doesn’t look quite as good anymore. Aside from his height, Street’s long arms and good shuttle time inflated his score a bit to compensate for his build and slower straight line speed. He is a high character guy and a team leader with nice hands. Unfortunately, his game lacks polish. He struggles to gain separation and can’t handle the press due to his lean build. I don’t see much to merit drafting him at this point in time.
Wilson is very short with small hands and short arms. However he had one of if not the best build of any of the wide receivers in this draft class. He’s rock solid. He has good straight line speed, but just about everything else is very average. He unfortunately struggles to catch the ball at times and has some work ethic and character concerns. The small school prospect is going to be lucky to see much playing time in the NFL as best case scenario is competing for the third or fourth receiver slot.
One of the more polished of the lesser known receivers in this group is Norwood. He is another tall but lean receiver with shorter than expected arms. On the bright side, he does possess very soft and strong hands and knows how to run routes in an NFL system. He is a high character player who knows how to play the position. With his size and physical abilities, he could turn into a solid possession and/or slot receiver in the NFL but he’ll likely need to add a bit more muscle to help him handle NFL defenders.
Herron was one of the darlings of the college all-star game season. He is a short receiver with very short arms, but he is lucky enough to have large hands and a very solid build. He has decent speed and explosiveness, but in college he was very hesitant to go over the middle of the field and risk taking a big hit. To me his best chance to see the field on an NFL team is as a deep threat with the role of trying to take the top off of defenses.
The last one of this group is Lucas. He is a tall, long armed receiver with okay but not great size for his height. He doesn’t possess very good speed which has made many wonder if he will be asked to put on some weight and possibly transition to tight end of an H-back role. I think that is probably his only chance of seeing the field on Sundays and even then he is a long term project and not worth drafting.
Struggled (Scores between -2 and -4. Justin Blackmon and Percy Harvin)
Shaq Evans (-2.238)
Ryan Grant (-2.480)
Tevin Reese (-2.480)
Josh Huff (-3.206)
Jared Abbrederis (-3.985)
In order to land in this score range it means one of a few different things. Either they missed a few drills like Percy Harvin, had one of the drills where they fell flat on their face, or they are just below average from a physical stand point across the board. Either way, it is at this point where the cards start to be stacked against the players. The chances of any of this group making a fantasy worthy impact is starting to become rather slim. Chances are none of these players or at most one of them will successfully make the leap forward at the next level.
Evans is another receiver who is starting to gain a little bit of buzz as a potential sleeper. From a physical standpoint, he doesn’t have any glaring holes or stellar attributes. His height, hands, arms, jumps, and straight line speed are all slightly below the average of the baseline group while his build and acceleration are slightly better. That meshes with what I see when I watch his games. He seems very average and could be a contributor to an NFL team, but I think it is likely to be as a possession receiver and the third receiver on his team. The fantasy upside could be limited.
Grant is an interesting combination. He is shorter and relatively lean with especially short arms. He is also severely lacking in straight line speed for a receiver and doesn’t seem to be very explosive. However, he can stop and start quite well and what speed he does have he can carry through cuts and turns extremely well as evidenced by one of the best three cone drills at the combine. This meshes with his game tape. He does possess a very good set of hands, but I’m not sure he has the skill set to be anything more than depth on an NFL roster.
Reese is a workout warrior with an extremely thin frame. He’s 5’10” but only 163 pounds. He was physically manhandled in college and will get utterly destroyed by NFL corners. There are concerns about what role he would play as he can’t beat press coverage and is likely to be cut in half by linebackers and safeties over the middle of the field. His 8.625 inch hands were the third smallest for a receiver at the combine and one of only four with under 9 inch hands. Translation for all of this, look elsewhere for your flier.
Huff did not participate in all of the combine drills and if he did, he probably would have been even lower than his current score. The only measurement that had him on the plus side of the docket was his relatively thick frame for his 5’11” height. Aside from that he was below average across the board. He is a better football player than athlete, but I still think he is subpar in terms of NFL talent.
If I had to pick one player who was going to be successful out of this grouping, it would without a doubt be Abbrederis. His score is the result of a lean frame, only 195 pounds at 6’1”, and a poor vertical jump. Without those measurements, he would have been in the positive side of the metric with good height and measurements as well as very nice times in the shuttle and three cone drills. He does need to add some muscle, both to his upper and lower body, to help him fend off the press and to give him a bit more explosiveness off the line, but he is otherwise a very polished receiver with very good hands. For those who don’t know the story, he was a first team all-state quarterback and defensive back in high school before walking on to the Wisconsin team. They asked him to switch to receiver and a few years later he is walking away as one of the school’s best ever at the position. His character and work ethic are supreme which makes me think he will find a way to work his way onto the field at the next level. The raw talent level might limit his upside to WR3 in fantasy leagues, but he’s one to watch.
Not their day (Scores under -4. TY Hilton, Wes Welker, Randall Cobb and Antonio Brown)
Jeremy Gallon (-4.205)
Chris Boyd (-4.433)
TJ Jones (-4.742)
John Brown (-5.026)
Austin Franklin (-5.213)
Cody Hoffman (-5.293)
Matt Hazel (-5.370)
Walt Powell (-5.414)
Paul Richardson (-5.441)
Brandon Coleman (-6.050)
Isaiah Burse (-7.092)
Willie Snead (-7.154)
Jarvis Landry (-8.007)
L’Damian Washington (-8.641)
Corey Brown (-9.303)
Jalen Saunders (-9.579)
Allen Hurns (-10.122)
Josh Stewart (-12.372)
It isn’t a surprise to me or anyone else who stops to think about it that the largest group is going to be the bottom group. After all, the vast majority of all rookies don’t end up being players of relevance to the fantasy world. Many of them don’t even become relevant in the NFL world. The players on this list are severely lacking what it takes to be fantasy relevant. The only players whom I might consider even giving a passing thought to on this list are those in the mold of the four veterans I listed. Those players who are undersized, since this metric seems to downgrade them a bit too much, but possess something that is at an exceptional level. Players in the Welker, Brown, Cobb, or Hilton mold.
Keep in mind that anyone below a -6, regardless of anything else, is extremely unlike to make any noise in the NFL outside of the return game. With 18 receivers on this list, I’m not going to talk about all of them, but let me highlight the issues with a few of the bigger names on the list.
Chris Boyd was a highly regarded prospect at Vanderbilt before he landed himself in more than a little hot water due to some off the field issues. He has good height at 6’4” and showed great hands in college (when he was allowed to play), but he showed up to the combine much too thin for his height and seemed out of shape. His extremely slow time in the 40 yard dash (4.73 seconds) was also a poor showing and it was the only drill he did. I think it is fairly likely that he goes undrafted and might not even be signed as a post draft free agent.
The six foot tall Richardson had a nice career at Colorado but I don’t see his game translating very well to the NFL. He is extremely thin at only 175 pounds and has very small hands. He is basically a straight line burner whose likely role in the NFL is as a return specialist. I can’t see him spending much time as a wide receiver at his size and with below average catching ability and average route running. He just doesn’t fit the bill.
The tallest receiver at the combine, the 6’6” Coleman definitely has height and wingspan. Unfortunately, that is about all he has in terms of this metric. Everything else was significantly off the baseline group, especially his ability to keep his speed up when changing directions. Some are bound to be seduced by his size, but I see a sluggish route runner who lacks explosiveness and fights with his hands quite a bit when making catches. I don’t see the same upside here that some others do.
A few months ago, there was a bit of debate between which of the LSU receivers, Beckham or Landry, would have the better NFL career. I don’t think there is anyone who would even entertain that discussion anymore. While Beckham lit up the combine, Landry put in one of the worst showings of any receiver. He had one of if not the worst showings in the 40 yard dash, vertical jump and broad jump of any receiver in the field. Had he competed in the shuttle run or three cone drill he might have been one of the worst in those as well. He’s a better football player than he showed at the combine, but it is tough to completely ignore how terrible his combine was. There were always questions about his athletic ability and the combine seemed to answer all of them in a negative way.
I’ll be back soon with a more detailed look at the top receivers in this draft class, focusing in on what seems to be their strengths and weaknesses according to their combine data. Thanks for reading!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
