The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) In my non-PPR league I am thinking about offering a trade of Jamaal Charles and Mike Wallace for Gio Bernard and Justin Blackmon – I’m deep at receiver so I can afford to wait out Blackmon’s suspension. Would you make this trade to get out of an aging top-tier running back and to get into the possible next top-tier guy? – JBFootball in TX
This is the time of year when expectations reign supreme. Without even so much as a pad-less practice occurring, we’ve already seen the dramatic shift towards deifying the “next big breakout stars,” a trend which typifies the late winter and spring months. It’s not truthfully hard to understand – in the metaphorical arms race that is dynasty football, now is the time to strike if you want to obtain these youthful options before they figuratively blow up.
As a byproduct of this frame or mind, known entities such as Jamaal Charles become almost “boring,” and we start to look for reasons as to why 2013’s highest scoring non-quarterback is, in our fictionalized actualities, a “sell.” Players such as Bengals’ running back Gio Bernard, who had a fine rookie season, begin to gain traction as heirs to the fantasy throne, due not only to their skill set, but also to their relatively lesser wear and tear. Put snarkily, it is dynasty football’s “silly season.”
I suppose this is a roundabout way of saying that while your prospective trade is certainly reasonable, I wouldn’t rush to offer it. While it’s true that Charles is 27 years old, that’s not the only aspect worth consideration – in my opinion, maintaining a firm line of demarcation as it relates to age (relative to position) negates the fact that not every player has followed the same path. In fact, despite his six years in the league, Charles has only accounted for a relatively paltry 1,283 career touches (including playoffs), and only has one major injury to his record. Given that, it’s unreasonable to expect a drop-off based solely on the calendar’s viewpoint.
Continuing, Charles has sported a downright eye-popping average of 5.6 yards-per-carry over his career, with no single season ever falling below 5.0. Conversely, Bernard ran his way to a relatively pedestrian average of 4.1 yards-per-carry last year – he helped mitigate this with an additional 56 receptions, but your league is built upon a non-PPR premise. Put simply, Bernard is good, but we need to ask the question – is he Jamaal Charles-good?
Truthfully, I don’t think he’s on the same level. I’d sooner bank on Charles having two to three more elite seasons than I would on Bernard becoming a perennial top-six non-PPR ball carrier, and that’s not even beginning to account for the risk you’d be inheriting by acquiring the boneheaded Justin Blackmon. While it’s possible Charles could succumb to the icy grip of Father Time sooner than we’d prefer, I’d nevertheless take my chances that he maintains both his value, and more importantly his production for a few more seasons.
2.) In my three-round, 12-team rookie draft I only have pick 2.02. I’ve been offered Philip Rivers and pick 1.10 for Peyton Manning and 2.02, and I also have Russell Wilson and EJ Manuel at quarterback. Should I make the trade? – Brian in MA
According to the March ADP data (courtesy of Ryan McDowell), Peyton Manning’s potential for putting up historical statistics easily trumps concerns of his age and injury history. In fact, despite having recently turned 38 years old, Manning currently resides as the overall QB7, and also as a late sixth round selection. This places him ahead of younger talents such as Matt Ryan, Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson, to name a few.
Conversely, the Chargers’ Philip Rivers can be had for relative peanuts. In these mock March startups, Rivers’ average draft position is that of a 13th round pick (as well as the overall QB18), seeing the bolo-sporting San Diegan reside well behind his AFC West counterpart. Given Rivers’ track record of success I find that hard to believe, but you’ll see more from me on that topic within the coming weeks.
While ADP data is by no means a completely accurate means of trade evaluation, the vast divide between Rivers and Manning shows where the court of public opinion stands on the matter. As such, I’d want the pot sweetened a bit more than the simple swapping of four slots in the draft’s pecking order. Given that you also have Wilson on your roster, I’d be more willing to chance that Manning loses value over the course of the next year. Aging or not, The Sherriff was fantasy’s highest scoring player in 2013 – especially considering the lack of separation between the players in the late first and early second rounds, I think you can, and should do better.
3.) In my 14-team PPR league should I trade Calvin Johnson for Keenan Allen, Montee Ball and Robert Griffin III (or Julius Thomas in place of RGIII). My receivers are Dez Bryant, Justin Blackmon, Markus Wheaton, Stedman Bailey and Kenny Stills and I plan on taking Sammy Watkins with pick 1.01. My running backs are Alfred Morris, Andre Ellington, Ahmad Bradshaw, Travaris Cadet and CJ Anderson. My tight ends are Jordan Cameron, Tyler Eifert and Dwayne Allen. – Dream Team in NH
When it comes to trading studs as part of a larger deal, you always want to ensure the “spare change” you’re receiving adds up to the metaphorical dollar-bill value your elite asset possesses. When the currency in question is the NFL’s best pass catcher, Calvin Johnson, you should be receiving interest on top of that return, a feat that can be tough to accomplish. Truth be told, however, your standing offer comes close.
I’ve previously posited that Chargers’ receiver Keenan Allen is primed to expand the ranks of the elite “Big Six” receivers, so the fact he’s anchoring your side of the deal means the potential trade is off to a good start. Denver running back Montee Ball is another strong piece, as he remains in prime position to attempt to replicate Knowshon Moreno’s sublime 2013 campaign. Finally, Julius Thomas (I’d much rather have Thomas than Redskins’ quarterback Robert Griffin III) is locked and loaded as a top-five tight end, and while his touchdowns will likely regress an AIR value of 1.23 suggests he’s much more than a Peyton Manning-byproduct.
With all that said, however, I’m not sure these acquisitions make your starting lineup any better. At least for the time being Allen is a downgrade compared to Megatron, and Ball still carries with him several question marks, including pass-blocking and fumbling concerns. While Thomas is a great third piece, you already have Jordan Cameron and Tyler Eifert locking down your tight end position. Though it’s certainly possible you could attempt to flip these assets in a manner that better rounds out your team, trading with the specific goal of trading some more doesn’t always work out.
Instead of swapping Johnson, I’d look to go the opposite route and attempt to sell off your first round pick (Sammy Watkins) for some proven talent. As we know your prospective trade partner is willing to part with Allen, why not try to offer him pick 1.01 straight up for the soon-to-be sophomore Charger? Given the “Rookie Fever” currently permeating the dynasty universe, it’s possible you could pull it off – at the very least you’ll be able to get negotiations started, affording you the chance to improve your team while maintaining your best asset.
4.) There is a team in my 12-man, non-PPR league that has Jake Locker as their starting QB, but also has Demaryius Thomas, Percy Harvin, Eddie Lacy, Le’Veon Bell and Trent Richardson. I’m going to offer Russell Wilson and Mike Wallace for either Thomas or Lacy with the assumption that he will decline it, but just to start the conversation. I really want to get rid of Ryan Tannehill and Wallace for Harvin and Bell, or Tannehill for Richardson straight up. Do you think those are fair value or am I over/under paying? – Bizz in Gotham City
Though having Jake Locker figuratively under center on your starting roster presents an inherent problem, I have a tough time seeing your potential trade partner “panic trading” one of his studs. Broken record that I am at times, I’ll once again state my views on quarterbacks in smaller league settings – there’s very little value in the position. In fact, consider the following tidbit: during the six contests he started (and finished) in 2013, Locker averaged 19.2 fantasy points per game – sure, he’s a streaky player, but it still serves to provide a snapshot of the overall depth of the position.
Unless you sweeten your offer by quite a bit, I think you can immediately write off the possibility of obtaining any of Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Lacy and Le’Veon Bell. Each is viewed as a top-six option relative to their position, and all are candidates for being selected in the first round of a startup. Even Percy Harvin, fragile as he may be, likely represents an unattainable trade target given your current price point.
With that said, if you’re truly interested in the reclamation project that is Colts running back Trent Richardson, now’s the time to buy. Needing only to beat out the oft-injured Ahmad Bradshaw and mediocre Vick Ballard, Richardson appears primed to get his shot in 2014. I’d have no hesitation offering up your combination of Dolphins players, quarterback Ryan Tannehill and receiver Mike Wallace, in an attempt to gauge the market, but be prepared to add more. It’s a trite saying, but apt for your 12-team league – quarterbacks are a dime a dozen.
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