Rookie Bust Mock Draft: Round One
Most rookie mock drafts you see like to focus on the strengths of each prospect selected. This isn’t one of those drafts.
You’re probably used to hearing about how explosive and sure handed Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans are and how incredible Teddy Bridgewater’s arm is. For good reason, we like to focus on the positives in each prospect’s game and inform our readers why a specific player will propel your fantasy team to glory. In this mock however, we’ll try to throw up the red flag on some of the weaknesses that our favorite rookies possess and explain which ones have the most potential to “bust.”
There was only one rule for who was eligible for this three round, eight man mock draft. To make sure all players taken were relevant dynasty picks as any player selected had to have been taken in the first two rounds of any DLF rookie mock draft during this off-season. Players were taken based on the risk probability, meaning the riskiest players and most likely ones to bust went first.
Let’s get started with round one.
1.01 – Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M
Brian’s thoughts: Maturity, improvisation, height and mechanics are all reasons Manziel could be a “bust.” Not all short quarterbacks succeed in the NFL, but what separates Drew Brees and Russell Wilson from the rest is work ethic. Manziel may not be mature enough to take on the responsibility of being a franchise quarterback. His off the field issues were questions in college and that could escalate if Manziel starts making millions. His improvisation worked well in college using his legs to get him out of tough situations, but in the faster NFL, his smaller body may not hold up to multiple hits if he is always trying to escape the pocket and pick up yardage with his feet. His mechanics, especially his feet are a big concern. Manziel has a strong arm, but oftentimes loses velocity because he is falling onto his back foot or opens his body and it appears he is heaving the ball. The mechanics and foot work could lead to a lot of interceptions at the next level. Manziel has a lot of things to work on and it is apparent there is big boom/bust potential for him in the NFL as well as in fantasy football.
My thoughts: I completely agree with everything Brian mentioned above. On the field, Manziel was incredibly successful while at Texas A&M, but routinely adlibbed plays and consistently made inferiorly athletic defenders look silly. At the next level, he won’t be able to turn his back from the line of scrimmage and pass-rushers that are much faster than the ones he faced as an Aggie and he certainly won’t be able to throw off his back foot where ball-hawking defensive backs will make plays on balls that would be touchdowns at College Station.
I’m not quite as worried about Manziel’s off the field antics as many others are. Most of his digressions can be written off as teenage mistakes he’ll grow out of. I am concerned about where he (as well as any other quarterback) ends up. If he’s drafted to be the savior of a dismal franchise like Cleveland or Oakland where there’s the potential for routine coaching changes and consistent losing to start his career, things could go downhill fast. Brian’s final sentence is correct. Manziel is the ultimate boom or bust prospect which makes him the ideal number one pick in this rookie bust mock draft.
1.02 – Jace Amaro, TE Texas Tech
Scott’s thoughts: I’m not a scout, but I don’t get the hype. He’s a questionable pass blocker and even being used exclusively as a receiving tight end, he drops a lot of passes and fumbles. He won’t last in the NFL if he can’t hang onto the ball.
My thoughts: When the offseason started, I was a huge fan of Amaro. Now that I’ve seen more of him on film and watched him at the combine, I’ve cooled on him slightly. I still think he’s a quality prospect, but I do have concerns about his game. While I haven’t noticed the chronic ball security issues that Scott mentioned, he’s not a strong blocker which could keep him off the field, especially at the beginning of his career, and he may not be as athletic as he appeared on film. When the college season ended, I thought he was a lock to be the next Dallas Clark. Now I’m starting to think he might not be quite to that level.
1.03 – Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE Washington
My thoughts: He could be the next Rob Gronkowski, or he could be the next Jermichael Finley, Jared Cook or Brandon Pettigrew.
Of all the players available in this draft, Seferian-Jenkins was the one I most wanted to draft. While he possesses all the physical tools to become one of the premier tight ends in the NFL, he may be missing the most important trait – drive. It’s been widely reported he lacks the motivation to be a top player at the next level and may have trouble handling the complexities of an NFL offense.
It’s very easy to get hooked on his size (he’s 6’6, 260 pounds), speed, athletic ability and hands, but dynasty owners should consider the risk in drafting a player with so much off the field baggage. While he has the physical skills to become a TE1 with top-five upside at the position, he also could become the next talented, athletic, pass-catching tight end who never realizes his potential.
1.04 – Kelvin Benjamin, WR Florida State
Ghost’s thoughts: I honestly think Benjamin will do just fine in the NFL, but questions have undeniably been springing up since the National Championship game. He drops a lot of catchable balls and his route running isn’t amazing. Some think the pro game may just be too much for him. I disagree, but the chance does exist.
My thoughts: Benjamin has the size all NFL teams and dynasty owners salivate over, but doesn’t possess any of the other intangibles the best receivers in fantasy land own. His 40 time (4.61) at the combine proved that he has below average speed and his 32.5 inch vertical wasn’t overly impressive considering his lower body strength. Add that to the drops the Ghost mentioned and you don’t have a very safe rookie selection at all.
1.05 – Isaiah Crowell, RB Alabama State
Jacob’s thoughts: Out of all of the high profile players in this draft, I think Crowell is one of the biggest risks. There are red flags all over the place, but you can’t deny the talent. When legal troubles are mixed with failed drug tests, questions about his maturity and his inability to fit onto a team, you need to be concerned. Maybe he has grown up over his last few years at a smaller school, but it is fair to wonder if his lack of incidents was at least in part to the spotlight being removed from him. Once he’s wealthy and in the NFL, will the old Isaiah come back? There are also some concerns on the field in regards to his ability to play in the passing game, but those are secondary when compared to the off the field concerns.
My thoughts: Crowell has a lot of talent. He was a five star recruit out of Carver high school, enrolled at Georgia and was named SEC Freshman of the Year by the Associated Press after running for 850 yards on 185 carries and scoring six touchdowns for the Bulldogs in 2011. Then he was dismissed from the team after being arrest for multiple felony firearms charges that were later dropped. He enrolled in Alabama State where he scored 30 touchdowns (albeit against lesser competition) over the past two seasons and kept his nose clean. Jacob’s concerns are justified, but Crowell’s off the field problems may be in his past.
1.06 – Marquise Lee, WR USC
Jeff M’s thoughts: Lee is a small (192 lbs.) receiver who showed a tendency to get nicked up during a junior season that was much worse statistically than his breakout sophomore year. Even if I didn’t mind the lack of progression in college, I prefer my small wide receivers to run a bit better than he did at the combine (4.52). I also like them to be younger than Lee will be (he turns 23 mid-season) for his rookie year. The final red flag is a poor red zone touchdown rate at USC.
My thoughts: Jeff made a relatively surprising pick when he selected Lee, who is considered a top-five rookie pick by many, fifth overall in the bust draft. He also made some good points about Lee’s size and speed that should be noted by dynasty owners considering taking him that high. Couple those concerns with Lee’s questionable durability as well as his difficulty getting off the line of scrimmage in press coverage and inability to break tackles and he may have the potential to “bust” after all.
1.07 – Blake Bortles, QB Central Florida
Eric’s thoughts: The bust rate of first round quarterbacks isn’t pretty. Any time you’re dealing with a rookie signal caller you’re more than likely dealing with a really bad team and most likely a new coaching staff on that really bad team. Bortles has parlayed a terrific senior season into possibly the first overall pick in the draft, a spot we all assumed would go to Teddy Bridgewater just a few short months ago. Bortles’ size, 6’4″ / 230 lbs, intrigues a lot of NFL teams. He’s been compared to Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck, but doesn’t throw the deep ball as well as either one. Landing spot will go a long way here. If he goes to Houston with Bill O’Brien and has weapons like Andre Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins and Arian Foster at his disposal, he will have a chance. If he goes to Oakland (where talent goes to die), he’s more likely to struggle.
My thoughts: I really don’t understand those who think Bortles should go number one overall to Houston. He has a slow release and isn’t very accurate when under pressure in the pocket. Some may like to compare him to Roethlisberger and Luck, but he doesn’t throw it nearly as well as either of them and didn’t play well against quality competition while in college. His size, arm strength and mobility make him an intriguing prospect, but those with fantasies he’ll be a franchise saving signal caller from day one may have their dreams busted.
1.08 – Carlos Hyde, RB Ohio State
Jeff B’s thoughts: Hyde was a very good college running back and was productive in the Urban Meyer offense. On film, he shows good power which gives him the ability to run through arm tackles and over smaller defenders. Unfortunately for Hyde, NFL defenses don’t have the type of players he was able to exploit while in the Big Ten. It’s not to say he won’t be a productive NFL player, but without much dynamic ability of which to speak, Hyde’s best case scenario is likely the career path which fellow between-the-tackle and former Big Ten running back Shonn Green has taken. The off-the-field issues are also very concerning with Hyde so a dynasty owner would be much better off investing in a player with higher upside even if it’s a bit riskier.
My thoughts: As a big fan of the Big Ten Conference, I’ve watched Hyde play many times over the last two years. To put it clearly, the tailback I saw in 2013 for the Buckeyes was not the same one that wore that jersey in 2012. Hyde looked sluggish and lazy as a junior, making rumors of a lack of work ethic sound accurate. Then, after being suspended for the first three games of his senior season for his alleged part in an assault, he looked like a new player. For ten games, he was a punishing, downhill runner. Overall, there are concerns about availability (he missed at least two games in each of the last three seasons) and his drive to be successful, but if his NFL team gets the player who suited up for the Buckeyes in 2013, they’ll be very happy. If they get the one from 2012, they’ll likely have a “bust” on their hands.
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