Post-Combine Rookie Mock Draft, Round Three

Jacob Feldman

manzielThe whirlwind that is the NFL Combine has come and gone. We’ve let the dust settle a bit and all of us have had enough to reflect upon what we have learned. For many, the NFL combine is the first time we get to actually see the 2014 NFL class, which also means it’s a time when opinions about players can (and often do) change in drastic ways.

What makes it even more fun is we all look for different pieces of the puzzle when we look at the combine. Some look at body type and size, others look at the way a player is put together, a few of us are all about the numbers and data while there are still others who like to make note of the way a player moves or catches the ball. No matter what it is that impresses you the most, your opinions are probably different now than they were a month ago in the days leading up to the combine. For that reason, we bring you another edition in our series of DLF Team rookie mock drafts.

Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:

1)     Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
2)     Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
3)     Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need

Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens! Keep in mind opinions about the players are very fluid and continuing to change as we do more analysis and more research.

Feel free to share your thoughts about any of the players. The next rookie mock will be held in late April and early May, just prior to the 2014 NFL Draft. If you want to take a look back at previous mock drafts, here are the links for you:

Pre-Combine Mock: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3

We continue with a look at the third and final round of the mock draft. This is where you’re going to see a lot of our favorite high upside players. The majority of these players could easily go undrafted in fantasy leagues by the time drafts actually roll around, but at the current time we like the potential in this group.

3.01 – Troy Niklas, TE Notre Dame
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.06

Scott’s thoughts: He’s an impressive physical specimen, but short on experience as a tight end. His combine performance was not very inspiring, but he is still a solid overall prospect with upside. His situation will have a huge impact on his value.

My thoughts: The mammoth tight end probably should have stayed in college for another year to learn a bit more about playing the position. As it stands right now, he’s a project, but he still fits into that second tight end tier. I think he’s likely to be a blocker and red zone threat in the NFL at first, much like Joseph Fauria was this last year. However, Niklas has more athletic ability than Fauria and could actually become a full time tight end in a few years. He just needs to work hard to be a better receiver and learn how to run routes.

3.02 – Paul Richardson, WR Colorado
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.12

Brian’s thoughts: Let’s start with the primary knock on Richardson and get that out of the way. His 6’0”, 175 lb. frame is a little lean for NFL standards. His body may not hold up to the punishment of the NFL game. Richardson is a lottery ticket type draft pick that may boom or bust. In the right system Richardson could be a very effective slot receiver and return specialist. He has the speed to stretch defenses and was able to be very productive in an offense without much supporting cast. His game breaking ability could make him a solid NFL player. I LOVE his value in round three of rookie drafts.

My thoughts:  I think Brian is dead on in terms of the main knock against Richardson. His size just isn’t where it needs to be to play wide receiver in the NFL. However, if he is out in space he can be a solid weapon. I expect him to be a return specialist in the NFL in the mold of Ted Ginn or Devin Hester, just not quite that dynamic. I wouldn’t expect him to be a wide receiver, but if you’re looking for upside, he has it. I just think it is a pretty big long shot.

3.03 – Blake Bortles, QB Central Florida
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.02

Jeff H’s thoughts: I often shop at True Value, at least in rookie drafts.  If, arguably, the top name in a skill position falls into the second or third round, you might as well just enter his name when I’m on the clock.  The same can be said for Bortles here.  While I have Teddy Bridgewater a hair higher than Bortles currently, there’s a good chance Bortles will end up on top before my final rankings are done.  Either way, Bortles is one of three interesting first round quarterbacks in 2014.  I’d love to see him go to Houston or Cleveland, but in any case, as the most prototypical passer in the group, he’s a safe bet to have a long career in the NFL.  At 3.03, there’s no barrier to the selection.

My thoughts: This is a very safe, “best player available” kind of pick. Bortles is going to be a first round choice in the NFL Draft. He has the talent and will have the situation to be a starter in the NFL – that is more than can be said for pretty much anyone else left on the board at this point in time. I still see him as a more accurate Jake Locker, which means he has QB2 type of upside. I don’t think he has much chance to be an elite quarterback, but he’s a very safe bet to be a fantasy backup at the position.

3.04 – Johnny Manziel, QB Texas A&M
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.06

Ken’s thoughts: At this point in the draft, you roll the dice and hope you get a steal. Johnny Manziel is this year’s most polarizing player as it’s nearly impossible to argue he has both the highest ceiling AND lowest floor.

In the end, Manziel is either going to further revolutionize the position and bring hope to a franchise or end up being a consistent guest star on “Keeping up with the Kardashians.”

Getting a shot in the dark with Manziel in the third round? Sign me up.

My thoughts:  The third round is all about fliers and Manziel definitely fits that category. The opinions on his fantasy prospects are just as widely spread as the opinions on his merits as an NFL quarterback. He could be the next Brett Favre, possibly right down to the substance abuse issues, or he could a narcissistic Tim Tebow.  If the third round is all about upside and potential reward, this is what you want.

3.05 – Shaquelle Evans, WR UCLA
Pre-Combine Mock Draft

Derek’s thoughts: Honestly, this is more of a gut pick than anything else.  Evans possesses good speed and I liked what I saw out of him in my limited viewings of his college tape.  In the third round, I’ll roll the dice on him.

My thoughts: When I look at Evans, I see an undersized possession receiver. He isn’t undersized in general, it’s just that most possession receivers tend to be players with big catch radiuses who can go up for the ball if needed to ensure the third down and seven yards to go pass is caught. He is tough and seems comfortable going over the middle, but I don’t see much that is too special about him from my limited viewings.

3.06 – Jared Abbrederis, WR Wisconsin
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.05

Dan’s thoughts: After a relatively humdrum combine where he ran a 4.50 second 40 and was only able to do four bench press reps, Abbrederis isn’t moving up many draft boards – that could be a mistake, however.  He’s incredibly smart, runs excellent routes and has superb hands.  He was a former walk on at Wisconsin and worked his way to becoming a two-time All-Big Ten selection.  It’ll likely take a couple years so he can build strength, but I have faith he’ll become a quality WR3 for dynasty owners with WR2 upside.

My thoughts: I have been very high on Abbrederis for a long time. Part of it is his story is tough to beat. He was a walk-on quarterback who transitioned into one of the best wide receivers in the history of the Wisconsin program. His high character, high motor personality will make NFL teams fall in love with him. With that said, his combine was very average and a bit of a disappointment. I think in this case though, the whole is greater than the sum of the parts and he has a chance to be a very solid pro.

3.07 – Terrance West, RB Towson
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.11

My thoughts: I’ve taken West in the third round of all of our rookie mock drafts thus far, so I’m starting to run out of new things to say about him. Late in the third round of fantasy draft is just about the perfect spot for him right now. His chiseled build and above average runs and jumps for his size undoubtedly will get him noticed by a few NFL teams. He has a rare combination of size and speed. I like to think of him as a more productive, more durable Latavius Murray.

There are concerns, though.

The FCS doesn’t have a very good history of producing NFL running backs, but West isn’t just another FCS running back, he is the most prolific FCS running back seen in a very long time. He put together 2,519 yards and 41 touchdowns on the ground just during the 2013 season. That’s right, just one season, not a career. Granted, the FCS isn’t nearly the level of competition of the FBS, but you need to take notice when someone dominates to that extreme.

He has ideal size for the position and definitely has some skills. He’s a sleeper to watch through the draft process as he will likely be a late round pick in the NFL Draft and in fantasy drafts. If we had four rounds in this mock, I might have waited until then to take him. He could be someone who rises up the depth chart of an NFL team in the fall.

3.08 – Colt Lyerla, TE Oregon
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.10

Jarrett’s thoughts: Another character concern, high upside player.  I’d much rather use my later rookie picks on players who have high ceilings and low floors as opposed to low ceiling/high floor guys.

My thoughts: One of the true wildcards of this draft, Lyerla’s situation could best be compared to that of Da’Rick Rogers from last year. Lyerla is a true physical talent, but he is also a headcase. He quit on his team in the middle of the season and also has a cocaine possession charge on his record. If he were stable mentally, the 6’4″, 245 pound tight end could be a first round pick in both the NFL and in fantasy leagues. There are a lot of concerns about his desire to play and if he can be controlled at the next level. Here’s a high risk, high reward pick – perfect for the late third round by an owner looking for a lottery ticket.

3.09 – Brandon Coleman, WR Rutgers
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted

Ghost’s thoughts: With all the big receivers off the board very quickly, I’m going for the value route here. Picking Coleman in the third, I’ll bet, will look like a steal down the road. He’s a huge receiver who could really help a developing quarterback on the outside. He’s the kind of receiver who you can throw a prayer up to and he could come down with it.

My thoughts: I’m not really a fan of Coleman. Yes, he is big and has decent speed for his 6’6” frame, but outside of that he doesn’t fit the bill of a NFL receiver. He reminds me a little bit of a Kris Durham type of receiver. Someone who is best suited to being the third or fourth receiver on an NFL team and who can’t effectively challenge NFL defenses enough to keep a starting role. I’m not sure he’ll ever be a fantasy asset outside of super deep leagues.

3.10 – Marion Grice, RB Arizona State
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 3.03

Jaron’s thoughts: After taking Freeman in the third, I went with another running back with good blocking and pass-catching skills. In less than a full season, Grice caught 50 passes out of the backfield and led the nation in touchdowns most of the year. He won’t be “the guy” on an offense, but is a versatile player who will contribute in many ways and does the little things well. His return abilities also give him an even better shot of sticking around.

My thoughts: Like a few of the other running backs who were drafted in the late second or early third round, I think Grice’s upside is as a part of a committee. He had a nice year at Arizona State, but struggled running between the tackles and didn’t fight off many defenders. I view him as a third down back or change of pace runner who plays a solid role on special teams, which would limit his upside a bit.

3.11 – Bruce Ellington, WR South Carolina
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted

Jeff B’s thoughts: His 4.31 unofficial 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine was blazing fast and he looked extremely athletic in the position drills.  The only thing Ellington lacks is size, but because I view him as a top-tier prospect specifically as a slot receiver, that doesn’t deter me much. His initial NFL career will mostly include kick returning, but as he learns some of the nuances to playing the slot, he should develop into a very nice player. I wouldn’t draft him before the mid-third round in rookie drafts, but getting him here at the end feels like very good value in terms of risk-reward ratio.

My thoughts: I think this is about right for Ellington. I was surprised by his combine performance even if his 4.31 unofficial time was downgraded to a 4.45 official time. He is smaller, but built very thickly. He showed great acceleration and change of direction ability and will be an asset to an NFL team as a returner. He could also earn his way onto the field as a slot receiver and possibly produce some WR3/WR4 type numbers in that role.

3.12 – Tyler Gaffney, RB Stanford
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: Undrafted

Jeff M’s thoughts: Gaffney is a player who really raised his stock at the combine. He ran a 4.49 40 and really impressed in the three cone drill and 60-yard shuttle. This is all very contrary to the knocks on Gaffney, who has been pegged as a player who lacks initial burst and quickness in space. My take is that he is a strong, tough, physical downhill runner who could slide right into the early down and goal line portion of a backfield committee. The bonus is that if his combine showing ends up being more than just a mirage, this could end up being a late round steal.

My thoughts: A two sport athlete for most of his life, Gaffney joined the football program after a brief stint in the minor leagues. He is a good athlete, but more of a straight ahead runner than I would like to see. Like Jeff mentioned, I think he could be the downhill, power portion of a committee which would include goal line duties. His upside would be that of Mikel LeShoure in 2012, but it is unlikely he ever reaches that level.

This is it for our post-combine mock draft. I’ll be back shortly with a discussion on the major risers and fallers from the pre-combine mock draft to this one. Our next mock draft of this nature will be just prior to the NFL Draft. Stay tuned for lots of other great stuff on the 2014 rookie class between now and then!

jacob feldman