Don’t Buy, Don’t Sell
I do a lot of thinking in the shower. As anybody with a family knows, moments of peace and quiet are few and far between. When you get them, they are to be relished. A couple of weeks ago, while cleansing my startlingly manly chest hair (I use both soap and a conditioner), I was thinking about a trade offer I had made for Alshon Jeffery. As an ardent believer in his ultimate upside, I wanted to own him somewhere and was willing to pay the price to make that happen.
Or so I thought.
It turns out the cost is bit higher than I expected. At first, I shook my head, thinking the owner should have instantly done the deal for fear I’d rescind it. But after analyzing it a bit more, I realized I wouldn’t have accepted the offer, either. So there I was, unwilling to offer to overpay more than I already had and unwilling to sell at that price if I had owned him. An odd dichotomy to be sure.
The next day I tweeted I wouldn’t buy or sell Jeffery right now. The resulting discussion sparked my curiosity, so I set out to see if there were other players about who I felt similarly. As it turns out, there is. A DLF article brewing in my head, I only needed one more thing – a catchy title for this fresh concept. With all this in mind, I hopped in the shower, emerging sometime later with wrinkled toes and “Don’t Buy, Don’t Sell.”
Setting aside the not at all coincidental similarity (in name only) to the now defunct military policy, the idea of don’t buy, don’t sell is to find players we shouldn’t overspend on now because they may soon be much more affordable without a corresponding falloff in value or upside. Conversely, even though the following footballers may be at their near-term trade value peak, they have too much upside to move in an even deal.
Alshon Jeffery – ADP 10.2 / WR7
The third year wide receiver is perhaps the NFL’s most perfect example of the concept I am presenting. Following a massive breakout sophomore campaign, I fully expect Jeffery’s statistics to take a step back in 2014. This is not at all an indictment of his talent, which I am very much in love with. Instead, it is a realistic assertion based on a number of key factors.
The single biggest thing in Jeffery’s way is Jay Cutler strongly prefers Brandon Marshall. I’ve seen people refute this notion, calling it a false narrative, but they are wrong. Statistics (see below) are proof enough, but when you watch the games, which, as a nut job Bears fan, I do, it is abundantly clear who the first option is in nearly every key situation. There is a very good chance this evens out somewhat as a result of coaching and Cutler’s growing familiarity with the young wide receiver, but until I see otherwise, I am sticking with what the numbers and my eyes tell me.
All three tables are per-game averages in games where the respective quarterback played the majority of snaps. The inclusion of the separate Weeks 15-17 table is to represent that despite Jeffery’s breakout under McCown, late in the year Cutler relied even more heavily on Marshall.
Fantasy football points (FFP’s) are calculated using PPR scoring.
The other main hindrance to Jeffery’s 2014 production is the Bears’ defense. They were terrifyingly bad last season, routinely forcing the offense to score gobs of points to stay in games. With an expected significant improvement due to several savvy free agent signings, the draft, a bit of addition by subtraction (I’m looking at you, Major White) and a return to health, it is more than fair to expect less urgency to light up the scoreboard this season.
All of this adds up to depressed statistics, a slightly lower ADP, and a cheaper price for a player whose ceiling is still as a top-three wide receiver. At the same time, that upside combined with already proven production is the reason I wouldn’t trade him for anything less than above market value.
Sammy Watkins – ADP 26.5 / WR 13
The Sammy Watkins love is in full effect, driving his ADP above the perhaps equally talented youngsters Michael Floyd and DeAndre Hopkins. The catch is that those two players have actually looked good in the NFL, while Watkins has yet to step foot on a professional field. Add in the very distinct possibility he is headed to a franchise like Oakland, and what we have here is a player who is likely at his 18-month trade value peak.
Let’s take a quick look back at each of the twelve wide receivers currently going ahead of Watkins in DLF mocks. None finished their rookie year as a top ten receiver. Two made the top twenty (Keenan Allen, A.J. Green). Seven finished outside of WR3 territory in 12-team leagues. My point is that while it is certainly possible Watkins’ talent wins out and he joins the outliers by having a big rookie season, It is far more likely he at least mildly disappoints owners who consider him a top-13 (or higher) dynasty wide receiver.
If I really wanted Watkins, I’d take my chances and wait a year. With the rookie fervor passed, I like the chances of his price being much more reasonable.
Aaron Rodgers – 34.3 / QB1
Rodgers’ name isn’t one you probably expected to see on this list, but there are a couple of reasons his asking price could drop by the time startup drafts kick off in 2015.
Rodgers turns 31 next December, a point when ageist owners start thinking about jumping ship – that would be a mistake for a player who spent the first three years of his career avoiding the rigors of the NFL by holding a clipboard for Caveman Favre. Between his relative freshness and obscene amount of talent, there is no reason to believe Rodgers won’t be highly effective into his late 30’s.
Another thing conspiring to drive his price down is the spread of malaise towards quarterbacks in general. In the last year alone we’ve been witness to a precipitous drop in Rodgers ADP. I am speculating a bit here, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if that trend continues, albeit at a much slower rate.
Even if his ADP doesn’t change much, the combination of the rise of Andrew Luck, whose continued hype may depress Rodgers’ value, and Rodgers being on the wrong side of 30 could very easily conspire to make him surprisingly affordable. On the flip side, you’ll have trouble getting enough in return to justify moving such an elite player. I own him in a league and have zero intention of putting him on the block.
Christine Michael – 60.5 / RB18
Want to know how to get a highly hyped, probably over-drafted player on the cheap? Try to trade for him mid-way through a season where it is evident he won’t get much work in. There is inherent risk in waiting on Michael (as there is with every player on this list). It could turn out that Marshawn Lynch gets hurt and misses time, allowing the former Aggie a chance to show what he can do. Or maybe Lynch grows old fast, opening the door for Michael.
You probably don’t want to wait on this one until after the season, as Lynch may not be back in Seattle in 2015. The sweet spot here is somewhere after week six, especially if Michael’s owner is in that 3-3 type zone where the addition of a piece could give him legitimate playoff hope.
I own Michael in a league and actually tried moving him. Nobody seems interested in paying a price commensurate with his ranking or ADP. Like Rodgers, if you can’t get enough in return to make you walk away from the upside, why would you? You presumably acquired him with 2015 in mind anyway, so bailing now would be silly.
- How to Win Without Watching Football - July 22, 2021
- 2018 Summer Sleeper: Chicago Bears - July 9, 2018
- NFL Draft Aftermath: Winners and Losers from the AFC North - June 18, 2018
