Post-Combine Rookie Mock Draft, Round One

Jacob Feldman

sammy_watkinsThe whirlwind that is the NFL Combine has come and gone. We’ve let the dust settle a bit and all of us have had enough to reflect upon what we have learned. For many, the NFL combine is the first time we get to actually see the 2014 NFL class, which also means it’s a time when opinions about players can (and often do) change in drastic ways.

What makes it even more fun is we all look for different pieces of the puzzle when we look at the combine. Some look at body type and size, others look at the way a player is put together, a few of us are all about the numbers and data while there are still others who like to make note of the way a player moves or catches the ball. No matter what it is that impresses you the most, your opinions are probably different now than they were a month ago in the days leading up to the combine. For that reason, we bring you another edition in our series of DLF Team rookie mock drafts.

Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:

1)     Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
2)     Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
3)     Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need

Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. From time to time we will disagree on a player. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. It happens! Keep in mind opinions about the players are very fluid and continuing to change as we do more analysis and more research.

Feel free to share your thoughts about any of the players. The next rookie mock will be held in late April and early May, just prior to the 2014 NFL Draft. If you want to take a look back at previous mock drafts, here are the links for you:

Pre-Combine Mock: Round 1, Round 2 and Round 3

Rounds two and three will be appearing in later articles as well as a risers and fallers article, but here is round one!

1.01 – Sammy Watkins, WR Clemson
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.01

Scott’s thoughts: Play it again Sammy. No surprise here, although I think it’s a lot closer than most might think with Mike Evans.

My thoughts: I said this before and I’ll say it again. There isn’t another choice at this pick at this point in time, regardless of your league setup. I think even if he gets drafted by the dreaded Raiders you still take him first overall. Good receivers on bad teams still produce fantasy results. We went through the same thing a few years back when Justin Blackmon was drafted by the Jaguars. If it wasn’t for the off the field issues, Blackmon would be a top 15 dynasty receiver without much question. If you need someone at a different position, trade this pick for a veteran or make the pick and trade Watkins later. I don’t think Watkins is the same level of a prospect as Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, or Julio Jones, but he is close. He isn’t the biggest player, but he is one of the most complete receivers we have seen in a few years. He has the physical and the mental side of the game – that’s rare in a rookie receiver these days.

1.02 – Mike Evans, WR Texas A&M
Pre-Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.03

Brian’s thoughts: Youth, size and NFL potential make Mike Evans a hot rookie name in 2014. The Texas A&M product had a fabulous combine with a 4.53 forty yard dash and 37” inch vertical, combined with a massive frame measuring at 6’5” and 231 lbs. Evans had fabulous tape from the 2013 season and will only be 21 at the start of the 2014 NFL season. He is a great option to take as the number two pick in rookie drafts and may end up number one if Watkins lands in an “undesirable location.”

My thoughts: I really like Evans and for the difference in trade market price right now between the 1.01 and 1.02, he might be the better value of the two. The argument could be made that due to the size difference (4 inches and 20 pounds), Evans is actually a better physical specimen than Watkins. I still think Watkins is the better prospect, regardless of landing spot. Still, I would be very happy to have either one on my roster.

1.03 – Brandin Cooks, WR Oregon State
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.10

Jeff H’s thoughts: With 1.01 and 1.02 largely ordained in the church of fantasy football, 1.03 is where the mystery begins.  There are, literally, eight or so players who could be taken at this selection depending on talent evaluation or fantasy team need.  For me, the choice usually comes down to talent over situation.  With the running back class less than exciting, at least with a high pick, the choice came down to Brandin Cooks and Marqise Lee.  Lee was lighting up the collegiate ranks until 2013; he just couldn’t overcome poor team and quarterback play.  Meanwhile, Cooks continued producing at a ridiculously high level.  While Lee has the bigger body, I just can’t ignore Cooks’ productivity.  In 2012, Cooks amassed 1,151 yards and five touchdowns.  In 2013, he recorded 128 receptions, 1,730 yards and 16 touchdowns.  And as I’ve said many times, you couldn’t ask for better character and drive.  Toss in a 4.33 forty and I’m sold.  I’m going against my normal reasoning here because Cooks is just too good to pass up.

My thoughts: This is where things start to get really interesting. As Jeff mentioned, you could make an argument for a large number of selections at this point in the draft. Cooks is definitely one of those, but I’m a bit surprised he was the one Jeff picked. I knew Cooks was going to fly up the rankings once people saw him run, I just didn’t think it would be this far, this fast. He’s not just lightning fast on the field, but his ability to change directions while maintaining speed as well as stop and start on a dime are nothing short of elite. In fact, his 20 yard shuttle was tied for the best all time at the combine! I’m still a little concerned about his size and how it will transition to the NFL, but larger than expected hands and the fact his exact measurements came out almost identical to the great Steve Smith have lessened those concerns a bit for me.

1.04 – Marqise Lee, WR USC
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.02

Ken K’s thoughts: “Which Marqise Lee are we getting?” It’s a simple question, but one every dynasty owner has to answer if they have a selection in round one. Is it the 2011 and 2012 version that set the world on fire or the 2013 version who battled injuries, poor quarterback play and had a ho-hum combine. If I’m right and get the “old” Lee, this is a steal.

Many will look at his 57/791/4 line from last season, combine that with his disappointing combine performance and feel Lee was overrated to begin with. To me, I see the 191 catches, 2,864 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns he scored his first two seasons as a Trojan and salivate at the possibility of getting the draft’s best player at 1.04.

My thoughts: Prior to the combine, I had a top three of Watkins, Evans and Lee pretty much locked in before it opens up to one of several. After the combine, Lee fell out of that “locked in” top group. With Lee, we’ve had a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde affair. He was great his first two years, making some wonder if he was the next receiver to be an AJ Green-level of prospect. Then 2013 arrived and he hasn’t looked the same. Maybe it was the perfect storm of a deteriorating team and injuries or maybe it was the fact that Robert Woods left, making Lee the focus of defenses. His combine was good, but not great. He didn’t look like an elite prospect, but rather just a good one, which makes him likely to slide down boards a bit.

1.05 – Odell Beckham, Jr., WR LSU
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.05

Derek’s thoughts: I’m in love with Beckham. While this pick is likely high based on current mocks, I foresee his stock rising considerably as we get closer to the draft. If he lands a prime spot, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as the 1.03.

My thoughts: Derek might be right on several accounts. Many will think he is a little off his rocker by selecting Beckham this high and mentioning him in the running for 1.03 seems a little extreme right now to most.

Personally, I think Derek is dead on.

Beckham might be a little on the short end for some, but his other dimensions are right on par with receivers several inches taller. He is also extremely fast, explosive, and possesses elite agility. I actually have Beckham (and others) ahead of Lee and extremely close to Cooks for the third wide receiver slot. The physical combination of size and speed Beckham possesses is actually the best combination out of the entire rookie class. Don’t sleep on him!

1.06 – Eric Ebron, TE North Carolina
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.06

Dan’s thoughts: There’s only been one tight end selected in the first round of the NFL draft over the last three years – that’s going to change.  Ebron solidified his place as the top tight end in the draft while at the combine.  He ran the second fastest 40 (4.60) and looked impressive catching passes during drills.  More importantly, he looks like a nightmare for opposing defenses to cover when you watch film of him in college.  Until we know where everybody ends up, he’s safe to take in the middle of the first round in rookie drafts.

My thoughts: I don’t see Ebron as a Jimmy Graham or a Vernon Davis, but he is the next step down. He has the talent and the physical tools to be what everyone hoped Jermichael Finley would become. His size is a touch under ideal and his blocking needs some work, but he is more than athletic enough to give NFL defenses fits, much like Julius Thomas did at times last year. Where Ebron goes in fantasy drafts will be more a product of which running backs and wide receivers gain or lose value in the NFL Draft, but Ebron will be a very solid and safe options in the middle of round one of fantasy drafts.

1.07 – Carlos Hyde, RB Ohio State
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.10

My thoughts: We didn’t get to see very much of Hyde at the combine due to him pulling a hamstring during his first 40-yard dash, but between what I did see from him and disappointment in what some of the other running backs showed, Hyde has climbed to the top of my running backs ranks. One of the best things to like about Hyde is he is built for the part. In an age where the bell cow is dying, Hyde has what it takes to be that type of player for teams that still desire to have one.

Hyde isn’t the fastest of running backs, but you wouldn’t expect that out of someone his size. What he lacks in speed he more than makes up for with his running style. He runs with great power, falls forward and breaks a lot of tackles. He is built to take and deliver punishment down after down. When you combine natural hands with all that running ability, you get someone who can be a true three down running back in the NFL.

1.08 – Jordan Matthews, WR Vanderbilt
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.05

Jarrett’s thoughts: One of the value yo-yos in this early process.  Once thought to be a lock for a high first round rookie pick, questions about his YAC ability, physicality and ability to create separation have started to push his value down.  He still ran in the 4.4s at the combine.  In this deep receiver class, where there seems to be a consensus top two, then a large jumble after that, his ultimate value will likely depend on his ultimate destination.

My thoughts: Matthews had a very nice combine, but he was overshadowed by some spectacular showings from the likes of Cooks and Beckham. For that reason, I expected him to slide a little bit in this mock. In my opinion, he might represent the best value of the entire draft because he isn’t flashy enough to stand out and is likely to be forgotten. In my own rankings, he is just a small step behind Cooks and Beckham and is a step above the likes of Lee and Kelvin Benjamin. Someone with Matthews’ size and physical talents is going to have a nice NFL career.

1.09 – Ka’Deem Carey, RB Arizona
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.04

Ghost’s thoughts: Still one of my favorite backs in the draft despite an underwhelming Combine performance. Carey has shown the ability to consistently get it done and gain the yards when it counts. I think he’ll be one of the top backs selected in this class and there would be no way he comes back around to me in the next round.

My thoughts:  Out of all of the high profile players who might be drafted in fantasy leagues, Carey might have been the one who I was most disappointed with post-combine. Calling his performance underwhelming is being very kind. His 40-yard dash time of 4.7 seconds at the combine and 4.66 at his pro day are red flags – that is slower than the likes of Shonn Greene, Alfred Morris and Montee Ball, all of whom were ripped apart by critics for their lack of speed after running a 4.6 at the combine before showing improvement at their pro days.

Carey also looked sloppy and slow with his cuts and at times fought the ball when he was trying to make catches. He didn’t look like a future fantasy starter to me and what I saw made me feel like I need to go back and look at what he did. Right now, I’m going to disagree a bit with Ghost and say I’m not sure he belongs in the first round.

1.10 – Allen Robinson, WR Penn State
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.02

Jaron’s thoughts: After missing out on stealing Jordan Matthews by two picks, I went with the next wide receiver on my board. Though he won’t be an elite playmaker, Robinson reminds me of Marques Colston with his combination of size and possession skills. A physical receiver who has proven he can win contested balls and be an asset in the red zone, Robinson has also been very productive despite the fact he will only be 21 years old as a rookie.

My thoughts: I go back and forth a bit on Robinson. Originally, I had him on par with Matthews, but he’s slowly been falling off that level. His combine performance knocked him down a little bit as well in my eyes. He has nice height and good build, but his hands and arms are small for his height. He was also slower than I hoped, confirming my fear he was competing for so many jump balls because he struggled to get separation. At least he was winning those jump balls, though! The comparison to Colston, though he is several inches shorter and a little slower, is fair. Robinson is a receiver who is going to need to win at the point of catch because he’s going to struggle to get separation in the NFL.

1.11 – Lache Seastrunk, RB Baylor
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 1.08

Jeff B’s thoughts: I got double-sniped on this pick as Carey and Robinson were my preferences, but Seastrunk, the number two running back on my board, is still a nice consolation.  Amongst this draft class, I firmly believe Seastrunk has the highest ceiling.  He was a very good route runner and hands catcher in passing drills at the NFL Combine and his 4.45 speed in the 40-yard dash cements him as a bona fide three-down back at the NFL level.  He might not start out as a three-down back, depending on where he lands, but if a team which covets Seastrunk’s diverse skill set and has carries up for grabs snags him, the sky is the limit.

My thoughts: I feel a little better about Seastrunk’s passing game ability after seeing him catch a few passes and run some routes at the combine. I still have concerns about his size and character as well as his vision and decision making when running with the ball. There are several like Jeff who have Seastrunk as a top two or three running back in this class, but he’s in the second tier of this class for me. I see him as more of a committee back in the NFL, but if he shines in that role he could see an increased workload down the road.

1.12 – Davante Adams, WR Fresno State
Pre- Combine Mock Draft Selection: 2.08

Jeff M’s thoughts: Adams has become one of my favorite targets in this year’s crop of rookie wide receivers. He has good speed (4.56, 40) and size (6’1”, 212 lbs) with big, soft hands and is a red-zone machine. In two years at Fresno State, Adams accumulated 233 receptions, 3,031 yards, and 38 touchdowns. I am well aware these insane sounding numbers were inflated by the offense he played in, but so were the college stats of a guy Adams is very similar to in the form of Michael Crabtree. I see him as a fairly safe pick with mid-range WR2 potential.

My thoughts:  I always get a little concerned when there is a top flight receiver paired up with a top flight quarterback in college. One of them is making the other one look better than they really are. Sometimes it is easy for me to get a feel which way it is, such as Mike Evans making Johnny Manziel look better than he really is.

With Adams, it isn’t as easy to tell and that concerns me a bit. I’m not quite sure how good he really is or can be. He does have decent size and okay speed, but I’m a little concerned about his hand size. He only has nine inch hands, which is a fair amount below the mean of the NFL for receivers. I’ve been seeing a strong correlation between hand size and success as an NFL wide receiver. It isn’t conclusive, but it is a concern for me when a 6’1” receiver has some of the smallest hands in the whole class.

That concludes our look at the first round of our post-combine look at the 2014 rookie class. Stay tuned for the later rounds and future drafts down the road!

jacob feldman