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Odd Man Out

Vick

The New York Jets have addressed their quarterback position this off-season by signing former Falcons and Eagles quarterback  Michael Vick to a one-year, $5 million contract. The deal also allowed the Jets to finally cut bat with long-time starter Mark Sanchez as they released him just prior to officially signing Vick. The Jets interest in Vick was obvious from the start as they wanted to pair him up with with his former Offensive Coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, who is now with the Jets. Last year’s rookie quarterback, Geno Smith, had a truly unique season as he posted great numbers in odd numbered weeks and played relatively putrid in even ones. Ironically, with Vick in tow, Smith may now be the odd man out in New Jersey.

These moves by the Jets are significant in dynasty leagues as the’ve sent the quarterback carousel into high gear. Let’s evaluate the players involved and see what kind of changes we may see with their dynasty value.

Michael Vick, QB NYJ

In an even competition with Smith, it’s hard to see Michael Vick losing. Over his 11-year NFL career, Vick has posted 21,849 passing yards, 5,857 rushing yards and 164 touchdowns. He’s also thrown 85 interceptions and lost 38 fumbles, making him one of the most turnover prone players in league history. The real issue with Vick is his health as he’s only been able to play in 128 of 176 possible games due to a wide variety of different ailments. The chances of Vick making it through an entire season healthy are remote since it’s happened only once, but when he’s in the lineup, he adds a dynamic dual threat that truly helped revolutionize the position. Those who have played in dynasty leagues for long enough can recall Vick’s epic Monday Night Football performance in 2010 where he threw for 333 yards, ran for 80 more and accounted for six touchdowns in a 59-28 beat down of the Washington Redskins. In short, he’s more talented and experienced than Smith or anyone else the Jets have at the position.

At age 33, this is likely the last stop for Vick as a relevant player in both fantasy or reality. The Jets are saying Smith is the starter, but we all know Rex Ryan is going to be playing for his job yet again and it’s going to be really hard to be patient with Smith if he doesn’t take a huge leap forward this year. If you’re a fantasy owner with Vick, he’s a player to hold on to as he can post great numbers from time-to-time. However, keep your expectations tempered. He should be a QB3 on your team who you hope you could plug in during a bye week or help out in a platoon situation if your QB1 gets hurt. Make no mistake, Vick’s days as a bona fide QB1 are over, regardless of if Geno Smith does a face plant.

Geno Smith, QB NYJ

For all his struggles, Smith did some good things last year. Unfortunately, he’s found himself in a position where the Jets need to win and can’t be patient with his development much longer. On the season, Smith threw for 3,046 yards, 12 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.  He also lost seven fumbles and scored six rushing touchdowns, making his season a bit of a mixed bag. In fact, his quarterback rating of 66.5% is worse than any season Vick has posted since his eight game rookie campaign. Can he improve on those numbers or will the presence of Vick waiting in the wings and the pressure the New York media throws at him be too much to bear? It’s a question nobody can answer, but Smith remains a “hold” in dynasty leagues as his trade value is next to none at the moment.

Eric Decker, WR NYJ

We’ve talked ad nauseam about Decker’s value on this site as of late, but this move certainly can’t hurt it. Decker is going to have a really hard time moving from a WR2 and third option to a WR1 who gets the opposing teams’ best corner each and every week. The presence of Vick would at least give Decker a legitimate threat as Vick can still flick it as well as most quarterbacks in the league. The best case scenario for Decker is seeing the Jets add another legitimate receiver opposite him (DeSean Jackson or a high NFL Draft pick) and a legitimate running back to help keep defenses honest. Decker’s arrow is pointing up (at least a little) after some felt it had really bottomed out last week.

Mark Sanchez, WR FA

Sanchez’ days as an NFL starter are likely over. He should hope to latch on with a team like the Rams or Browns where he could have a shot at some playing time early. Regardless, Sanchez should be on waiver wires as he’s a player we’ve seen who can’t put any team over the hump in fantasy or reality. It’s too bad the Texans went with Ryan Fitpatrick as the time with Bill O’Brien could have really helped Sanchez.

Nick Foles, QB PHI

You think the Eagles are fine going “all in” with Nick Foles?  Yeah, me too.

Other Jets Receivers

Much like Decker, this move can’t hurt. However, the depth chart as we see it now is likely not the one we’ll see moving forward. It’s hard to see a tremendous amount of increased value in Stephen Hill, Clyde Gates, David Nelson, Jeremy Kerley or the others since we really don’t know how the depth chart is going to shake out moving forward.

Ken Kelly

Ken Kelly

Senior Partner - Executive Editor at DynastyLeagueFootball
Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
Ken Kelly
10 Comments

10 Comments

  1. Buck masters

    March 23, 2014 at 2:56 pm

    This guy is hoping the jets roll with Chris ivory at rb this yr. put a couple good Wrs n the team and maybe he can have some space to run. IF he can keep from getting nicked up, he could be a good bounce back candidate. If they sign Jackson, they’ll prob draft an rb. I know im in the minority, but i actually think ivory will outplay his draft position and have some decent value during the upcoming season

  2. phantasy5

    March 23, 2014 at 4:42 pm

    As a Geno owner in a league where you keep 17 only, I don’t have the luxury of waiting for Geno to develope behind Vick. For me he was going to be a wait and see what happens guy but I believe the writing is on the wall. There’s no way on God’s Gang Green earth that Smith beats out Vick in a competition, IMO! I think Decker owners can breath just a little bit easier right now with the addition of Vick. If DeSean ends up in NY they could be on there way back to a respectable offense. There’s alot of ifs coupled with that statement. As an Eagles fan I don’t want DJax going anywhere, but he must have done something really wrong for them to be shopping or worse releasing him, it doesn’t make sense! If they release him and get nothing for him, that would suck, and I hope he ends up with the Raiders! Spoken like a true Philadelphian, and proud of it!

  3. Matt

    March 23, 2014 at 4:47 pm

    Why is everyone so sure Vick has the upper hand here? Everything the Jets have said is that this will be a true open competition…and frankly they are pulling for Geno to win.

    Vick has just 2 seasons over 3,000 yards passing in his entire career. He’s played a full 16 games just once his entire career.

    FWIW, Geno played 16 games and tossed for 3,000 yards his first year.

    He also won 3 of his last 4 games, posted a qb rating of 82 and about 200 yards rushing with 3 tds during that span.

    • phantasy5

      March 23, 2014 at 6:15 pm

      If the Jets are so high on Geno, why are they bringing anyone else in to compete with him? Maybe b/c they need to win now due to Coach & Front Office being on the hot seat?
      They just don’t have time to wait. I’m not saying Vick is the answer, just gives them a better chance at winning now given their situation. Vick has the experience needed to win games, not championships!

      • Matt

        March 23, 2014 at 8:00 pm

        The Jets priority is making moves that improve the football team. They released Sanchez who was gonna cost 10 mill and brought in a better player for half that.

        Seattle had Wilson compete. Philly had Foles compete. Jets are gonna have Geno compete.

        Not comparing the players but it’s what’s happening in today’s NFL.

  4. spon

    March 23, 2014 at 5:04 pm

    I’ve watched every snap Vick had as an Eagle and he’s just not that good. The athleticism and arm strength are still there but he just can’t make reads quick enough to move the O unless it’s a big play. I doubt he makes it through the year.

    • phantasy5

      March 23, 2014 at 6:21 pm

      I agree with that, he’s injury prone and turnover prone, that’s a given! He still won the job last season and lost it to injury. He didn’t get it back b/c Foles was just flat out better and he wasn’t completely healthy enough to take the field. At 33 he still can win in this league.

  5. Cy23

    March 24, 2014 at 7:22 am

    I think they would be extremely short sighted to give up on Geno Smith this early. Worst case, groom him and have Vick start in 2014. If Vick gets injured, trot Geno out and see what he can do– then develop him as the starter for 2015 on.

    Best case, he holds his own and beats Vick in training camp.

  6. meineymoe

    March 24, 2014 at 9:18 am

    not sure why everyone is sounding the alarm. I think this is great news for Geno Smith. I think it takes the pressure off and allows him to grow into his professional role, rather than being forced to perform now when he’s not ready to take the reins.

    This is only bad news for Geno Smith in redraft leagues – I think that’s pretty short sighted for considering his NFL and dynasty ff future.

    Too many young QBs who have been forced to the fore — like Gabbert, etc — when they would have benefited from a season or three of tutoring, have failed.

    I think, in dynasty, Geno Smith is a buy now if his value is really as low as some of the reaction I’ve seen so far. A bit too reactionary if you ask me.

    -oo-

    • phantasy5

      March 24, 2014 at 12:46 pm

      For fantasy I agree with your take of young QB’s and if you have the luxury to stash and wait, by all means do it. In reality teams need to win or turn around quickly, as owners are not as patient as they used to be. QB’s drafted in the recent past have been thrust into starting roles immediately and we’ve seen some fine results. Also with that we’ve seen bad QB play as well from guys that were drafted in mid to later rounds that don’t have the “IT” factor and possibly never will!

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