Dynasty Stock Market: A Study of the Riser
Josh Gordon. Alshon Jeffery. Nick Foles. Jordan Cameron. Julius Thomas. If you had any of these players on your dynasty rosters in 2013, you were likely one of the higher scoring teams in your league. Perhaps you even won a league championship on the backs of these players. The best part is the price you likely were able to acquire these players, and others like them, before they experienced a dramatic increase in value over the past year. In many ways, this is the key to success in dynasty leagues. It relatively easy to identify the talent of players like Peyton Manning and Larry Fitzgerald, or even young players whose dynasty value was established before they even took an NFL snap like Andrew Luck or Julio Jones. What is difficult, yet pivotal, is identifying and acquiring the riser. A riser, as you might have guessed is the term used for a player gaining value. Although you’ll hear to term often this time of year as the NFL draft nears, for our purposes, riser will simply be a player who has gained, is gaining or is expected to gain value.
Today, I’ll inspect some of the players gaining the most value over the past calendar year, while analyzing some common traits of these players that could help in predicting the next set of risers.
Other than being some of the biggest and fastest risers in dynasty over the past season, what else do these players have in common? Identifying some of those traits and characteristics could help find the next riser before it’s too late.
The Breakout Wide Receiver
This list of a baker’s dozen of some recent risers is littered with wide receivers, though not all of them can trace their gain in value to a breakout season. In fact, only two can call 2013 their breakout. That, of course, would be Josh Gordon of the Browns and the Bears’ Alshon Jeffery. The typical dynasty owner is infatuated with finding breakout players, or risers, before their price increase and as of late, the trend has specifically moved towards the wide receiver position. Gordon and Jeffery were obviously did not come out of nowhere as they were both top one hundred picks this time last year, despite little actual production as professionals. Gordon’s ascension can simply be traced to being a naturally gifted and talented receiver. In short, he’s a freak. His rise will not be repeated every season or even every few seasons. This also makes me think he was being way undervalued prior to this off-season based on his impressive metrics and prototypical frame alone. If you acquired him at a discount prior to the 2013, kudos to you. Jeffery is somewhat of a different story I’ll get to later.
So, who could be this year’s breakout receiver?
Answering that presents a problem in relation to how these players are being valued. The breakout of Gordon specifically, and the thirst for dynasty owners to find the next version of Gordon (a player who can go from prospect to dynasty building block in less than a calendar year) has caused many wide receiver prospects to be overvalued, overhyped and overpriced. Among the players with artificially inflated ADPs are some of the risers on this list, including Michael Floyd, DeAndre Hopkins, Cordarrelle Patterson and Rueben Randle. Each of these players is being considered as the next potential breakout star, but the problem is they are already being drafted as if they’ve proven something. Now, I like each of these four players and rank them all very highly, but paying stud prices for a player you hope becomes a stud player is not smart business. What makes the Gordon story so good? It’s how relatively cheap he was this time last year.
The High-Powered Offense
2013 was an interesting year for many reasons, but a pair of new head coaches burst onto the scene and their innovative offenses had a grand impact on fantasy football. Of course, I’m talking about Marc Trestman of the Chicago Bears and the Eagles’ head man, Chip Kelly. These two offensive minded coaches entered the league under completely different circumstances, but both soon became very important for dynasty owners and how our rosters should be managed. We all knew Kelly had the potential to turn any of his players, especially speed based players, into fantasy superstars. We also felt confident his quarterback would become an elite fantasy starter, only most thought that would be Michael Vick. Instead, Kelly handed the reigns to Nick Foles and his dynasty value exploded. Foles was possibly the most difficult of the risers to predict. Another player to show up on this list can also thank Kelly for his rise back to the top of the wide receiver ranks, DeSean Jackson. Jackson’s value has fluctuated throughout his career, but with Kelly in town, he can be considered a safe fantasy starter. That is, if he stays in Philadelphia.
Trestman also had a major impact as quarterbacks Jay Cutler and Josh McCown both posted elite fantasy numbers routinely throughout the season. Of course, receiver Brandon Marshall and running back Matt Forte continued to put up numbers Bears fans and dynasty owners have grown accustomed to, but the big star for the Bears might have been the aforementioned Jeffery, who excelled especially once McCown took over for the injured Cutler.
When looking for teams where new offensive minded coaches could have a major impact, I first look to Minnesota. Although the Vikings new head coach is former Bengals defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer, he also hired Norv Turner as his offensive coordinator. We’ve seen the impact Turner can have on an offense, especially at the tight end position. With the team also expected to upgrade at quarterback, one potential riser is tight end Kyle Rudolph, who currently has an ADP of 94. Patterson is another who could be considered a potential riser if his value hadn’t already risen dramatically.
Another offense that could see a nice bump thanks to their new head coach is the Washington Redskins, who hired another former Cincinnati assistant in Jay Gruden. While the Bengals have played well over the past few seasons, their offense has never been consider prolific, despite having some of the top playmakers in the game, namely AJ Green. Receiver Pierre Garcon is already well-established, but could still increase in value. The team also recently signed Andre Roberts, who is almost certain to gain value due to targets and playing time alone.
The Youth Investment
I often like to analyze rookie classes by considering how a fantasy team filled with players from only that class might fare. When looking back just one year to the rookie group of 2013, which at the time was considered well below average, I think your team would be competitive, outside of the quarterback position. A few of the risers on this list are from that class, including Patterson, Hopkins, Zac Stacy and Le’Veon Bell. To make a list like this, or to be considered a riser, a player has to start out relatively low on the ADP scale. Each of these players had some level of success in 2013, which has warranted an increase in their value, even though in some cases they were way off the radar last year. So, for rookies to have this big of a move up, they must start out down the list. This year, that could include any number of players. I’m not quite ready to predict which players could have an immediate impact and become a riser in dynasty leagues, but one thing is clear, betting on youth almost always works out. Consider some of the players who played very little in their rookie season of 2013. Players like Christine Michael and Aaron Dobson have even seen their value rise following what could be considered redshirt seasons. So, whether I am in a startup draft or just looking forward to the rookie draft in my current dynasty leagues, I am going to find a way to get as many rookies on my teams as possible.
The Tight End Riser
It seems each season brings a new breakout tight end, especially in recent years with the creative ways tight ends are being used, often making plays a wide receiver would make. Players like Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski have changed the way the NFL tight end is used, as well as how dynasty owners value the tight end positon. Once considered an afterthought in fantasy drafts, we are seeing the value of tight ends increase across the board. The two players you’ll see on the list as a riser are Julius Thomas and Jordan Cameron. Both players have the natural ability and had been considered as a fantasy sleeper for the past couple of seasons before finally breaking out in 2013. Both can thank their situation for finally becoming relevant in the NFL and in dynasty leagues. Thomas has Peyton Manning throwing him the ball and some elite wide receivers dominating the defense’s attention, while Cameron had a tight end’s two best friends as coaches – Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner.
So, who are this year’s candidates?
Let’s keep it simple and follow what we know. Both Turner and Chudzinski were ousted in Cleveland and both have landed new jobs. We’ve already discussed Turner and his new tight end, Rudolph. Chudzinksi will be serving as an offensive consultant for the Indianapolis Colts, who happen to have a pair of undervalued tight ends in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. To this point in their young careers, it’s Allen who has been the better producer, but he’s also coming off an injury that cost him much of the 2013 season. When Fleener was handed the job and expected to produce, he disappointed. With Chudzinski in town, either, or both, of this pair could see a huge rise in their value.
Finally, here’s a look at what the dynasty ADP data can show us about the rise of these players. Whose name might make this list next year?
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