Fade to Black
When James Jones said over the weekend how much he’d “Love to play with Cam” and the rest of the Carolina Panthers, most dynasty owners probably thought to themselves that wouldn’t be a bad move for his fantasy prospects. When he agreed to a three-year contract to play in the Black Hole on Monday, those same owners likely cringed. Although Jones hauled in 23 touchdowns over the last three seasons, he clearly played second (or even third) fiddle to the likes of Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, Greg Jennings and Donald Driver in his time in Green Bay. Oakland will give him a chance to be the top receiving threat on the team, but that’s not necessarily a good thing.
Let’s take a look at the players affected by the Raiders’ most recent addition.
James Jones, WR OAK
While Jones is an immediate upgrade over what the Raiders currently have on the roster, I can’t imagine his fantasy outlook being much worse.
After playing the first seven years of his career with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers throwing to him, Jones is making the move to a quarterback situation that’s unsettled, to put things nicely. Matt McGloin, an undrafted free agent from Penn State a year ago, currently sits atop the Raiders’ depth chart with Terrelle Pryor also in the mix. Needless to say, neither will ever be mistaken for Favre or Rodgers and both lack the ability to make their receivers look better than they are, which Jones benefited from throughout his time in Green Bay.
Along with the questionable quarterback situation, Jones also has a history of dropping passes in some of the biggest situations and although he has the size to do so, doesn’t break many tackles when running after the catch.
On the plus side, Jones is a quality route runner and was excellent when Rodgers rolled out of the pocket while with the Packers. He has the ability to find open space when a play breaks down, which could come in handy considering the Raiders’ offensive line.
Overall, Jones is an above average possession receiver that can get deep from time to time. He excels in the red-zone and is at his best outside the numbers on routes coming back to the quarterback or along the sideline on back shoulder throws. Unfortunately, those types of strengths require an accurate quarterback. Most likely, the Raiders will bring in a veteran like Matt Schaub or Michael Vick to line up under center in 2014 but neither would improve Jones’ fantasy outlook nearly enough to count on him as anything more than a low-end WR3 even though Oakland will most likely be counting on him as their number one wide out.
Denarius Moore, WR OAK
Judging by the Jones signing, the Raiders weren’t comfortable entering 2014 with Moore as their number one receiver and who can blame them? After improving between his first and second seasons, Moore failed to take a leap forward in his third year in the league. He hauled in 46 passes for 695 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games last year.
Bringing Jones into the mix won’t hurt Moore’s potential to contribute at all in 2014. In fact, it could help just a bit. Although he’s not a true number one wideout, Jones will command attention from opposing defenses much more than the receivers who lined up across from Moore last year. More than anything, he needs to stay healthy for an entire season to be effective for the Raiders as well as dynasty owners.
Rod Streater, WR OAK
There isn’t a player who is more negatively affected by Jones ending up in Oakland than Streater, who was penciled in as the Raiders second receiver earlier this off-season. Not only will Jones take away playing time, he could take his job altogether.
Jones and Streater are essentially the same player. Although Jones can stretch the field at times and Streater is strictly a short to intermediate receiver, Jones is likely going to fill the role of the possession receiver in Oakland which will make Streater relatively useless. Barring injury at the position, Streater will be hard pressed to match the 60 receptions he posted in 2013. If there’s a loser in this signing, it’s him.
Andre Holmes, WR OAK
Holmes finished the season rotating with Moore and Streater for playing time and didn’t disappoint. Although he didn’t make his first catch until week 11, he finished the season with 25 receptions for 431 yards and a touchdown in limited snaps.
Jones signing with the team won’t make Holmes’ path to playing time any easier, but it doesn’t make it impossible either. If Moore were to go down with an injury or prove ineffective, Holmes would likely be the first to get a chance to take his place.
Juron Criner, WR OAK
Jones going to Oakland will put Criner on the roster bubble over the summer. If you’re holding on to him with the hopes that he’ll burst onto the scene in 2014, it’s time to find someone with more upside.
Mychal Rivera, TE OAK
Sure, the Jones signing could theoretically help out any tight end on the roster, but along with the rest of them, Rivera has a lot more to worry about than what wide receiver Reggie McKenzie brings to Oakland.
While he’s shown some promise, Rivera’s not assured of anything at this point. The Raiders could add another tight end via the draft or free agency, so nobody should be too comfortable.
Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
Although Rodgers lost a receiving weapon for the third consecutive season, there’s no reason to think his numbers will slip in 2014. He lost Driver in 2012, Jennings in 2013 and now Jermichael Finley (most likely) and Jones in 2014, but dynasty owners shouldn’t be concerned about a statistical falloff. No matter whose catching passes from him, he’s a top-three fantasy option. Only injury can slow him down.
Jordy Nelson, WR GB
With or without Jones, Nelson is a WR1.
Randall Cobb, WR GB
Most dynasty owners might think Cobb’s potential would go unchanged with the news that Jones left town. That may not be the case, however. Word out of Green Bay earlier this off season indicated the Packers were interested in using him outside the numbers, not just in the slot. With Jones out of the picture, that could happen on a consistent basis. If he stays on the field when the Packers go to two receiver sets, his upside only continues to grow.
In my opinion, Cobb’s poised to become the premier slot receiver in the NFL in 2014 and along the way, become one of the top PPR receivers in fantasy leagues. Having Jones in Oakland will only help him become both.
Jarrett Boykin, WR GB
If you own Boykin in any dynasty league, you have to be thrilled Jones signed anywhere but Green Bay – the move cements him as the Packers’ number three wideout behind Nelson and Cobb. After injuries to Jones and Cobb early in 2013 Boykin stepped up big, catching 49 passes for 681 yards and three touchdowns while playing mostly with Matt Flynn and Scott Tolzien under center. Next year, he should catch all his passes from Rodgers and will likely play 800 snaps with upwards of 80 targets.
While Boykin doesn’t have a skill-set that separates himself from other receivers in the league, neither does Jones. He also has the unquestioned support of his head coach and quarterback, which will go a long way towards making him a fantasy contributor. Dynasty owners should expect Boykin, as long as the Packers don’t add another wide receiver, to pick up directly where Jones left off and haul in around 60 passes for around 750 yards and six-plus touchdowns, which is more than Jones might post in Oakland.
Andrew Quarless and Brandon Bostick, TEs GB
As long as the Packers don’t bring in another receiver, whoever is starting at tight end in Green Bay could see a bump in production. At this point, it looks like Quarless is the most likely to benefit but that could change during the draft.
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