The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On March 17, 2014

rogers

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1. In my 12-team, non-PPR league I need to make four cuts. The candidates are Marshawn Lynch, Ben Tate, Knowshon Moreno, Mark Ingram, Jacquizz Rodgers, Robert Turbin, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams, Denarius Moore, Da’Rick Rogers and Jeremy Maclin. Also, who should I aim to get in the draft (I have picks 2.07 and 3.07)? – Ray in NJ

For the first part of your question, I think there are a few variables that can be immediately eliminated from the equation. Marshawn Lynch, Ben Tate, Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter, Terrance Williams and Jeremy Maclin should be rostered in all formats, so I’d keep them away from the chopping block. Conversely, I consider Jacquizz Rodgers, Robert Turbin and Denarius Moore to be expendable, and believe they represent a trio of roster cloggers – these are players not likely to ever start for you, but yet you just can’t seem to quit. It’s time to say goodbye.

As such, I think your final decision should come down to the trio of Knowshon Moreno, Mark Ingram and Da’Rick Rogers. Moreno has been a revelation over the past year and a half, but due to the uncertainty of his future locale his value has been on a swift decline. Personally I believe that’s a bit disingenuous to his actual talent, as he has produced as a mid-range RB2 with Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow under center – the mystery of his future remains disconcerting, but I’d hold onto him nevertheless.

I can’t say the same for either Ingram or Rogers. With the exception of big games against Dallas (in which the New Orleans offense literally had a record setting day) and Philly (where the Eagles routinely committed only six men in the box), Ingram has been largely ordinary or worse during his three years in the Bayou. He receives a slight bump due to the release of Darren Sproles, but Pierre Thomas, Khiry Robinson and Travaris Cadet remain to siphon away touches.

Rogers has shown even less, with his stats accumulated in a blowout loss versus the Bengals (six receptions for 107 yards and two touchdowns) representing 43%, 56% and 100% of his receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, respectively. He’s extremely talented, but his on-field potential is potentially still trumped by his character concerns. He’s a sleeper who might never awake.

Regardless, I think I’d rather hold onto Rogers. It might be unfair, but I’d rather take his upside over the persistent mediocrity put forth by Ingram. The signing of Hakeem Nicks throws a wrench into any immediate production, but Reggie Wayne is getting older and the Colts need a playmaker outside of TY Hilton – if he keeps his nose clean, Rogers could be that guy.

With regards to your draft picks, I think it’s too early to begin targeting specific players. Values will fluctuate as the NFL draft comes and goes, and your picks are far enough removed from the first round that I think you’ll have a tough time forecasting what will happen before you. It’s just too soon to know.

2. I am trying to trade for the top two picks in my developmental draft so I can get Leonard Fournette and Thomas Tyner. I have offered Mike Wallace for the first pick but might need to sweeten the deal, and I was thinking about throwing in one of either Bryce Brown, Latavius Murray or Khiry Robinson. Assuming Brown gets traded, how would rank those guys and who are you most comfortable letting go? – JBFootball in TX

While the return of Pierre Thomas has likely cooled the flames of the Khiry Robinson firestorm, I still liked what I saw out of him in 2013. Including the playoffs, Robinson averaged 4.35 yards-per-carry, and he was even the preferred option of choice in the Saints’ playoff loss to the Seahawks, outworking the more heralded Mark Ingram 13 carries to 10. I like his chances to push for more work in 2014, and he could be the top dog if/when Ingram leaves prior to the 2015 season.

Though Latavius Murray didn’t touch the ball in 2013, he remains and intriguing stash due to his size/speed package. While the Raiders re-signed Darren McFadden, he’s a virtual lock to miss multiple games in 2014 – when that happens, Murray could very well get his shot. Personally I think his hype is greater than his actual talent (despite the Zac Stacy’s of the world, sixth round picks usually fall for a reason) and wouldn’t hesitate to sell him for the right price, but for your proposed deal I’d rather move a different player.

To be honest, I never really understood the Bryce Brown hype, and I’m certainly not the first – Jacob Feldman warned us about this prior to the 2013 season, and we probably should’ve listened. While he showed well in some 2012 spot duty, Brown shouldn’t have been able to parlay that into the value spike we all saw. This collective overvaluation was even more egregious considering Brown was stuck behind LeSean McCoy, who wound up leading the league in rushing this past season.

With the recent addition of Darren Sproles, it’s possible Brown could find himself on the outs in Philly. As that could be viewed as a theoretical boon to his value, I’d choose to attempt to move him now. If you can reign in the first pick in your devy draft for Mike Wallace and Brown, that’s a move I’d make every time.

3. In my new dynasty start-up, tight ends score one point-per-reception while every other position is half-PPR. My question is with the TE-premium scoring is it crazy to consider Jimmy Graham with the first pick? – Bob in Saskatchewan

Last season the Saints’ Jimmy Graham represented possibly the biggest positional upgrade not named Peyton Manning. In a PPR-setting, Graham’s 19.0 points-per-game was a 23.3% upgrade over TE2 Julius Thomas, and on the season he scored 87.7 more points than any other player at the position. If you were lucky enough to own him, your weekly floor was already higher than that of your opponents.

To put this into an even great perspective, consider the outputs of the scoring leaders at running back and wide receiver – Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles and Denver’s Demaryius Thomas. In a half-PPR setting Charles scored 347.1 points, while Thomas checked in with 273.0. Charles would be an upgrade, sure, but it’s a virtual certainty his longevity will be eclipsed by Graham. Meanwhile, Graham actually outscored Thomas by a whopping 11.1% – again, that’s the top overall scorer at the receiver position.

In summation, no, I don’t think it’s crazy to consider using the number-one pick on Graham. In fact, I’m willing to take it one step further. Given your league specifics, I think you’d be crazy not to.

4. I won my 12-team, non-PPR IDP league last year thanks in no small part to DLF. I’m left with a nice problem to have – due to league requirements I can only protect a certain number of players. I’m going to make a trade where I give up Julius Thomas and Colin Kaepernick, but I will also have to part ways with a running back. Which of DeMarco Murray, CJ Spiller, or Zac Stacy should I trade away? How would you rank the three? – Wade in Austria

While I don’t actively partake in the collaborative DLF rankings, I like to update my positional Top 25’s about once a month on Twitter. In my last update, I had the trio of CJ Spiller, Zac Stacy and DeMarco Murray ranked as the PPR RB6, RB10 and RB12 respectively. Even though your league employs a non-PPR format, I don’t see my rankings changing drastically.

I’ve expounded upon Spiller’s virtues before, so I won’t belabor the point here. His “down” year still saw him function as the 10^th best running back in the league in terms of yards-per-carry, despite playing through multiple ankle injuries. If he improves even marginally upon his slow rate of scoring, I see absolutely no reason why he can’t be a force to be reckoned with once again.

While Stacy isn’t flashy, he was a true workhorse on one of the worst offenses in the league. To put a number to that qualifier, the Rams were the 30^th ranked team in terms of total yards, checking in with a pathetic figure of 305 yards per game. Considering Stacy’s biggest deficiency is pass-catching, he gets an even bigger bump in a non-PPR setting – truth be told I’d have no problem selecting him over the much more heralded Le’Veon Bell in a startup draft.

To me, that leaves Murray as the odd man out. He was dynamic in 2013, averaging a robust 5.2 yards-per-carry to go along with 3.8 receptions per game. Unfortunately, he also continued his maddening yearly tradition of missing time due to injury. While it was only two games in 2013, Murray has now missed nine games over three years, or 18.8% of total available contests – in my opinion, that’s a gigantic red flag.

Continuing, I have to question whether Murray’s statistics are repeatable. His receptions per game represented a 41% increase over prior career numbers, and he also scored at a rate of once every 27 touches. Once again, that dwarves his previous career figure of one score for every 64.3 touches. His true ability is likely somewhere in between, but it’s not unfair to suggest his 2013 output was aberrational.

With the pass-happy Scott Linehan hired as Dallas’ new Offensive Coordinator, it’s fair to wonder what type of volume Murray will receive. Coupling that with the above paragraphs, and there’s just too much uncertainty surrounding the young Dallas ball carrier. Given your situation of needing to divest yourself of a running back, Murray would be my choice.

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.