2014 Free Agency Blog
Free agency is in swing and DLF is ready, as always.
This year, we’ll be covering all the free agency moves as they occur via this blog with our real time (or as close as we can get to it ) analysis of each move and how they impact our world of dynasty leagues. This Premium exclusive blog will be updated constantly as free agency unfolds over the next few days. In addition, we’re also running a special Premium exclusive IDP free agency blog for those of you in IDP leagues. We’ll cover many of the mainstream offensive players in our free content, but this will be the place for complete free agency rundowns. Remember to read from the bottom as the most recent events will be listed at the top.
Here we go!
March 15,2014
CLEVELAND BROWNS LAND BEN TATE
For a complete breakdown of Tate as a Brown, click here.
EMMANUEL SANDERS SIGNS IN DENVER
For full analysis of Sanders signing with Denver, click here.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS ADD BRANDON LAFELL
The Patriots inked Brandon LaFell to a three year contract valued at $11M. It isn’t the higher profile signing that we’ve been expecting, but the Patriots finally added a veteran receiver to compete with the likes of Kenbrell Thompkins and Aaron Dobson, behind the recently resigned Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola. For Amendola, one has to wonder what the future holds. New England allowed Amendola to stick on the roster long enough to guarantee $2M of his $3M salary this past week likely providing one more year of service, but nothing is guaranteed here. The receiver competition is shaping up to be a tight one and Kenny Britt is visiting on Sunday.
JULIAN EDELMAN RESIGNS IN NEW ENGLAND
A year after Tom Brady was said to be livid at the loss of slot specialist Wes Welker to Denver, you can believe that Tom Terrific was doing everything he could to convince management to bring back Julian Edelman. It’s a move that just makes a ton of sense from every angle and we’re not surprised. At 28 years of age when 2014 kicks off, Edelman should produce to the same degree in 2014 as he did in 2013. He’s just too productive underneath. That said, if Danny Amendola suits up for New England and can remain healthy, Edelman’s production could be pressured.
March 14, 2014
BILLS TO SIGN ANTHONY DIXON
Well, this is a tad disappointing. One of my favorite under the radar free agent running backs was Anthony Dixon, formerly of the 49ers. After being rumored to the Titans, it looks like he’s going to end up with the Bills, or so says his twitter account. With Tennessee, Dixon would have been in the mix for serious playing time, especially if the Titans were to rid themselves of Chris Johnson in the near future. Instead, it looks like he’ll end up in Buffalo with Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller. Jackson is a free agent in 2015, but do you really want to use a roster spot on Dixon in the hopes they don’t re-sign Jackson, don’t draft or sign another back AND don’t give more of the offense to Spiller? That’s a little too much wishful thinking for me.
COLTS INK HAKEEM NICKS
For full analysis on Nicks going to the Colts, click here.
RAVENS SIGN STEVE SMITH
In an expected move, the Ravens have signed Steve Smith. For a complete breakdown of the move, click here.
LIONS RE-SIGN BRANDON PETTIGREW
The Lions retained their long term tight end as they signed Brandon Pettigrew to a four-year, $16 million contract with $8 million guaranteed. Over his five-year career in Motown, Pettigrew has posted a modest 284 catches for 2,828 yards and 16 touchdowns. Owners shouldn’t expect much different from Pettigrew as he’s constantly disappointed all of us. With Golden Tate taking some targets and more weapons likely on the way, Pettigrew is what he is – a spot play or bench tight end in fantasy leagues. The most interesting part of this saga wasn’t the Jets being interested in Pettigrew, but the fact the Chiefs were as well. If that was really the case, owners may be overvaluing the likes of Travis Kelce.
March 13, 2014
CARDS ADD TED GINN JR.
Interesting.
The Panthers let Ginn walk even though they have virtually nothing at receiver and Ginn landed with a nice three-year, $9.75 million deal with the Cardinals. While it will help Arizona in reality, this move doesn’t do anything for Ginn in fantasy leagues. With Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald entrenched as the starters, Ginn will simply be a special teams player and occasional deep threat – not something you want to rely on in fantasy leagues. For every decent game Ginn posts, there will be three duds.
TITANS SIGN CHARLIE WHITEHURST
If you’re ever out looking for a job, don’t think of Charlie Whitehurst continuing to get employment because it’s just going to make you more angry as you search. Whitehurst somehow seemingly landed the backup job in Tennessee behind Jake Locker as the Titans signed him to a two-year deal. Ken Whisenhunt does know Whitehurst from his Charger days and must think he can help Locker learn the offense. It will probably spell the end of Ryan Fitzpatrick in the Music City.
PACKERS SIGN ANDREW QUARLESS
In another somewhat uninspiring tight end move, the Packers signed Andrew Quarless to a two-year, $3 million deal. The numbers are somewhat nominal, so the Packers could still be in the market for a tight end in the 2014 NFL Draft. As it stands, Quarless and Brandon Bostick should compete to replace the soon ex-Packer Jermichael Finley. Quarless posted a 32/312/2 line last year for the Pack, but you can’t really gain much from that since Aaron Rodgers missed so much time. I’m taking a “wait and see” approach to this tight end situation.
TEXANS RE-SIGN GARRETT GRAHAM
Hmmm. It seemed as if Ryan Griffin was going to be given the only set of keys to the Houston tight end car, but the Texans decided to bring back Garrett Graham on a three-year deal worth $11.25 million. Graham was decent last year filling in for the newly departed Owen Daniels, but this move seems like a bit of an overpay. On the year, Graham had 49 catches for 545 yards and five touchdowns. Griffin still has lots more upside and should be owned in more leagues than Graham. At best, Graham is going to be a spot play in dynasty leagues next year. At worse, Griffin shows well in camp and overtakes him in the passing game sooner rather than later. Regardless, the move does throw some cold water on Griffin’s sleeper potential for this season.
EAGLES LAND DARREN SPROLES
The Eagles were able jump in the Darren Sproles derby and landed him from the Saints in exchange for one of their two fifth round picks in the upcoming draft. We already knew Sproles was leaving and have talked ad nauseum about what it will do for Saints running backs. What we didn’t know is how the move would affect the value of Sproles.
The landing spot in Philadelphia is as good as one could have hoped for. Chip Kelly is as creative an offensive mind as Sean Payton and he’ll undoubtedly find ways to use Sproles in the passing game. He has over 70 catches in each of the past three years and the Eagles will find a way to get him the ball in space and create some special packages for him. In short, he’s the perfect player for Chip Kelly. Sproles’ ADP in March is that of the RB49 and that may take a little bit of a bump up in the upcoming months as he’s going to remain a viable secondary option in PPR leagues. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Sproles maintain RB3/Flex value. If anyone could do that with 5-8 touches a game, it’s Sproles.
As for McCoy, let’s not all of a sudden think the sky is falling. He had 366 touches last year and that’s just too many to sustain. While Sproles may take 15-20 catches off his total, McCoy is still a bona fide RB1 and won’t lose much, if any, value. He’s a three down back who gets goal line carries – Sproles may take a little third down work, but I’d see him coming in more in special packages and helping on special teams. If the owner in your league is thinking otherwise, pounce on it.
March 12, 2014
JETS ADD ERIC DECKER
The first of the big name recievers finally found a home as Eric Decker signed a five-year deal with the Jets. This is going to be interesting as we’ve been saying all along that Decker’s value as a WR1 on a team may not reach his WR2 value on Denver and this looks to be that exact scenario.
Decker immediately becomes the best wideout on the roster and wil likely be paired with a rookie or another free agent. The development of Geno Smith is obviously going to be paramount to Decker’s success, but this is no death blow to his value. Sure, it’s not optimal, but he will get his share of targers. Let’s just hope the talk of the Jets holding Smith’s attempts to less than twenty per game is just coachspeak.
Decker will likely maintian his WR2/3 value and have some upside. Again, this isn’t great, but it’s not a worst case scenario, either. For much more, check out our featured article on the DLF home.
CARDINALS ADD JONATHAN DWYER
In an under the radar signing, the Cardinals added Jonathan Dwyer to their running back corps. Once a coveted prospect, Dwyer has had a hard time maintaining his weight and has proven to be somewhat pedestrian as a runner. However, he’s a plus pass protector and can serve as a good short yardage specialist. This signing is actually good news for Andre Ellington as Dwyer is no real threat to his job. If the Cards roll into the season with Ellington, Stepfan Tayor and Dwyer at running back, Ellington really will have a chance at a major breakout.
BROWNS PURGE THEIR QUARTERBACKS
The Browns are truly starting over. Again. One of the unluckiest franchises of the past decade is seemingly going all in on the NFL Draft at the quarterback position as they waived both Brandon Weeden and Jason Campbell today. Campbell played admirably last year when injuries struck, but it wasn’t enough to keep him as a viable option. As for Weeden, he proved to have happy feet and struggled maintaining any type of consistency. Unfortunately for him, his advanced age may preclude him from getting a second chance. At the moment, the quarterback to own in Cleveland is Brian Hoyer, at least until we see what unfolds in the next couple of months.
LIONS FINALLY FIND A SECOND RECEIVER
In what was the worst kept secret of the week, Golden Tate inked a five-year deal with the Detroit Lions today. Tate isn’t s superstar receiver, but he’s by far the best option the Lions have had opposite Calvin Johnson. Last year, Tate led the Seahawks with 64 catches for 898 yards (both career highs) and also had five touchdowns. Tate’s arrow is pointing straight up now as he’ll undoubtedly face single coverage each week in an offense predicated on passing. Tate should challenge both of those career highs next season and his current ADP of the WR50 and that’s certainly going to move up with this news. After all, Tate found himself on an offense that ran the ball a ton and really rarely needed to throw the ball. Tate should also add a much needed boost to the return game of the Lions, so this is a nice fit in both fantasy and reality.
The move impacts both the Lions and the Seahawks, of course. The sleeper appeal of the Lions receivers like Kris Durham, Michael Spurlock, Jeremy Ross and others is minimized. As for the Seahawks, this may open a spot for a free agent receiver like James Jones or Hakeem Nicks.
Stay tuned.
BUCS ADD JOSH MCCOWN
Josh McCown cashed in on his magical (and unexpected) season in Chicago by inking a two-year accord with the Tampa Bay Bucs. The fact McCown signed there with other visits on his schedule indicates he was given assurances he will at least compete with Mike Glennon and/or others to be the starter on opening day. McCown was a nice story last year as he actually outplayed Jay Cutler and posted a completion percentage of 66.5% to along with 1,829 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and just one interception. The problem here is McCown has been a lifelong journeyman quarterback with stops in Arizona, Oakland, Carolina and Chicago. He’ll be 35 years old before the start of the season, so he’s certainly no long term answer in Tampa Bay.
McCown belongs on rosters so we can see if last year was an aberration due to him playing for renowned quarterback guru Marc Trestman and throwing to the likes of Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. The news is more detrimental to Glennon as it seems Lovie Smith isn’t necessarily sold on him as the long term answer at quarterback. It’s going to be interesting to see if Tampa Bay adds another quarterback in the draft as well.
UPDATE: It looks like the Bucs are serious about giving the job to Josh McCown as Lovie Smith has anointed him as the starter.
SAINTS EXTEND PIERRE THOMAS
New Orleans was reportedly poised to release or trade both Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles, but they’ve apparently changed their minds. After getting a bunch of phone calls on Sproles, it seems they’re going to hold on to him for the moment until they can find a good trade partner. As for Thomas, they’ve decided to keep him instead of dealing him and signed him to a two-year, team friendly contract extension. Now 29, Thomas wasn’t as effective as he had been in the past last year, as he posted just 549 yards on 3.7 yards per carry with two touchdowns. He did add 77 catches, which was a career high. His re-insertion to the depth chart creates more confusion as Khiry Robinson and Mark Ingram still reside there as well. Robinson still has the most upside, but this is shaping up to be more of a mess than fantasy owners would like.
March 11, 2014
CHARGERS ADD DONALD BROWN
The Toby Gerhart signing by the Jaguars was a bit of a head scratcher, but you could at least see it coming in a way. The Chargers adding Donald Brown? Uhh, not so much.
Brown will join a very crowded backfield with Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead while taking on a role to be determined later. Mathews has never been the picture of health, but he enjoyed a nice season with 1,255 rushing yards last year. Brown played well last year for the Indianapolis Colts and actually leapfrogged Trent Richardson as the Colts’ best rushing option. Initial speculation has to be Brown taking on the old Ronnie Brown change of pace role in San Diego, spelling Mathews when he needs a break and providing insurance for him if he goes down with an injury. My gut feeling says this move won’t really dig into the value of Mathews or Danny Woodhead, who enjoyed a breakout season of his own. The real loser in this deal is Brown – he would have been much better served as a dynasty asset in Denver or elsewhere.
Curveball #2.
JAGS REPLACE MJD WITH TOBY GERHART
Toby Gerhart landed on his feet after leaving Minnesota and signed a three-year, $10.5 million contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars this evening. Twitter immediately blew up with people really excited about Gerhart getting a starting job and finally being able to show his abilities.
Color me skeptical.
First, Gerhart does have a healthy yards per carry average of 4.7 over his career, but he has just 86 carries over the past two seasons, so the numbers are hard to take with anything but a grain of salt. The Jags also have Jordan Todman in tow, so being the featured back is no lock for Gerhart, though he did get $4.5 million guaranteed that says he will be. Add to this the fact the Jags have been atrocious offensively and will likely have a rookie quarterback. If you’re a defense, how are you going to play the Jags if they have Johnny Manziel or Teddy Bridgewater? You stack the box and dare you to beat them doing anything but running the football.
It’s just day one of the new year, so anointing Gerhart as the unquestioned starter on what will be a pretty bad team offensively is a little quick. The Jags could still add a free agent or rookie back to their stable to challenge Gerhart and/or Todman for carries. It’s an exciting development for Gerhart, but again, color me skeptical at the moment.
Curveball #1.
BROWNS SIGN ANDREW HAWKINS TO OFFER SHEET
This is flying a bit under the radar, but it’s interesting. The Bengals can match the offer made to receiver Andrew Hawkins, but Cleveland will reportedly make it tough for them to do that as they’e reportedly tripled the offer given to him from Cincinnati. If he does end up with the Browns, there’s some sleeper appeal here as Cleveland is truly desperate for playmakers, especially those who can play underneath and free up space for budding superstar Josh Gordon. Keep tabs on this because it could make an impact. Hawkins’ value would surely rise up in Cleveland and while they would still need to go after more receivers and a running back via free agency and the NFL Draft, it could make an impact on who the Browns take with their two first round selections this year.
COWBOYS PULL THE PLUG ON MILES AUSTIN
If there was ever a doubt Terrance Williams was going to have a more prominent role next season, that was extinguished as Dallas released long time receiver Miles Austin today. Austin out up 1,000 yard seasons in both 2009 and 2010, but he’s been zapped by a host of injuries, including hamstring woes that seem to never really go away. Austin really has value in name only at this point. In his eleven games played last season, he only caught 24 passes. There will be some desperate teams out there (New York Jets?) who kick the tires and eventually sign Austin, but his best days are clearly behind him.
COLTS INK BRADSHAW
Speaking of oft-injured running backs, the Colts re-signed Ahmad Bradshaw to a one-year deal today. He’s coming off neck surgery that cost him the year and has lost much of his explosiveness after a myriad of different foot injuries. He shouldn’t be on any dynasty rosters as he’s just an insurance policy for Trent Richardson and Vick Ballard.
The signing of Bradshaw should clear the way for Donald Brown to find a new home. Brown has been lost for most of his career, but proved to be the best back Indianapolis had down the stretch – he could be an interesting signing for someone out there.
As for Richardson, this year is it. With only Ballard and Bradshaw around at the moment, he’s going to get the Lion’s share of the carries. What he does with it is anyone’s guess, but has everyone’s interest.
OAKLAND KEEPS A RUNNING BACK, JUST NOT THE ONE ANYONE EXPECTED
In true Raider fashion, Oakland threw us a curveball today when they kept Darren McFadden on a one-year, $4 million deal and subsequently let Rashad Jennings sign with the New York Giants.
For McFadden, this doesn’t really change much of anything. He’s productive when healthy, but that’s not often. Owners of Gio Bernard have to be ecstatic, though. Much of the speculation around McFadden swirled around him going to the Bengals. McFadden will have one year to prove he can stay healthy and return to form. He’s the epitome of a high risk, high reward player, so don’t be foolish and build your roster around him.
This move isn’t great short term for the likes of Latavius Murray, who was a breakout candidate. In the end, I think we’ll just have to wait another year (or until McFadden gets hurt) to see as much of Murray as we’d like. On a positive note, they’re only tied to McFadden for one year, so Murray could have a chance to establish himself this season and be featured next. Patience could be rewarded as tough as that is.
As for Jennings, signing with the Giants could prove to be a nice career move. He was simply better than McFadden last year as he rushed for 733 yards and six touchdowns on a healthy 4.5 yards per carry. He’ll presumably battle the likes of David Wilson and others for playing time, but there are no sure things on that roster. In short, it’s kind of a mess at running back at the moment. It will be interesting to see if New York brings back free agent Andre Brown now.
Before you start going crazy in acquiring Jennings in dynasty leagues, just remember he’s already 29 years old.
49ERS TRADE FOR FIRST ROUND BUST GABBERT
The Jags have officially thrown in the towel on the Blaine Gabbert era, trading him and his beautiful hair away to the 49ers for a sixth round pick in the upcoming draft.
This move will undoubtedly pave the way for Chad Henne to be the starter and keep the seat warm for the next player in line, who will likely be chosen by the Jags in the upcoming draft.
Gabbert just never panned out in Jacksonville and ends his tenure there with an atrocious 53.3% completion rate, 4,357 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 24 interceptions. He battled through injuries as well, but just never showed any real potential. The move should also seal the fate of Colt McCoy, who likely won’t return to San Francisco now.
There’s no reason to have Gabbert on your roster, but Jim Harbaugh does love himself a quarterback project. Keep tabs on him during the preseason, but don’t get too excited.
BUCS ADD BRANDON MYERS
Tampa Bay attempted to boost their receiving corps today by adding Brandon Myers, formerly of the Giants and Raiders, to a two-year, $4 million contract. Myers was decent last year for New York as he posted 47 catches for 522 yards and four touchdowns in his lone season with the G-Men.
The move doesn’t help the value of Tim Wright, though it doesn’t kill it, either. While Myers won’t wipe out his playing time (Wright is best served as a part time player anyway), his presence certainly caps Wright’s potential upside. Myers is a better blocker and Wright is a solid pass catcher, so the tandem makes sense from a football perspective.
In fantasy terms, it wouldn’t be a shock to see Myers and Wright put up some relatively similar numbers next year. However, they’re both stuck in the giant nexus of lower tier tight ends. You can speculate all you want about who will be playing more or who will catch more passes, but each of these two could give you five catches, 60 yards and a score one week, followed by one catch for five yards the next.
I’m using my roster spots on players with a little more upside, especially at the tight end position where the “haves” and the “have nots” is so extreme.
TITANS SIGN DEXTER MCCLUSTER
Dexter McCluster is reportedly signing with the Tennessee Titans. It’s a decent fit considering they could use another slot receiver and return player, but don’t expect much more from McCluster than you have in the past. He’s never played with a truly great quarterback and that doesn’t look to be changing with Tennessee. McCluster should be on waiver wires unless your league rewards return yards. Even then, it looks like the Titans are bringing in Leon Washington for kickoff returns, so his value is capped.
TEXANS CUT OWEN DANIELS
Long-time tight end Owen Daniels was cut by the Texans this morning. Dynasty league owners should run, not walk, to the waiver wire to make sure Ryan Griffin is owned in their leagues as he’s now squarely on the radar as a potential breakout candidate.
As for Daniels, he’s going to be hard pressed to put up the numbers he has in the past, but it’s mostly due to his tendency to get hurt. Hold on to him until you see where he goes.
SKINS TO SIGN ANDRE ROBERTS
Early reports this morning indicate Andre Roberts will officially leave the desert and sign with the Washington Redskins. His addition isn’t good news for the likes of Leonard Hankerson, Santana Moss or Josh Morgan as he’ll likely be the starter opposite the supremely underrated Pierre Garcon. He could man the slot as well, but we shouldn’t get overly excited about Roberts in DC. Over his four year career, he has 182 catches on 336 targets for 2,123 yards, though he has scored 11 touchdowns. I wouldn’t be sending multiple trade offers anywhere in an effort to acquire Roberts at the moment – he has the looks of a low-end WR3 at best, though he does have some upside as he’ll likely be a starter. We just need to see him produce on the field before anointing him as having more than just “flex appeal.”
The move does leave Andrew Hawkins and Kenny Britt out there still looking for jobs. Many though Hawkins would end up with former Coach Jay Gruden in Washington. He still could, but this signing makes it more doubtful. As for Britt, who knows.
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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