Dynasty Stock Market: March ADP Report

Ryan McDowell Posted On March 13, 2014

Another month on DLF dynasty mocks is in the books and I have to say this was our best month yet. Along with setting up the drafts and gathering the data, one thing I really stress to participants is to draft as quickly as possible. The main reason for this is so we can provide the most accurate data possible and avoid stretching things out for the entire month. I knew this would be especially challenging this month with free agency beginning the past Tuesday. I did not want the transactions that would hit the news this week to affect the outcome of our March data and the mock drafters this month stepped up in a big way. All six mocks were done in a total of eight days, easily our fastest process in the two years of DLF mock drafts. Thanks to all who participated and kept things moving!

This month, I wanted to take the chance to point out some trends I noticed in looking at the March data, along with the three months of 2014 data we’ve amassed.

Quarterback:

The quarterback position as a whole continues to be down, which is a stark contrast from a year ago when many dynasty owners seemed intent on grabbing their favorite young quarterback in the first four rounds. This year, players like Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick can be had well into the seventh round.
March was the second month that the rookies were included in the mock drafts and the top two quarterbacks basically held steady. In February, Teddy Bridgewater was the QB12, directly followed by Johnny Manziel one spot behind. In March, the pair hold down the same ranks among the quarterbacks, but this time it’s Manziel who was the favored rookie with an ADP of 121.
The strategy of “late round quarterback” could work like never before in 2014. There are multiple veterans who could be solid fantasy starters like Tom Brady, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger all available in the twelfth round and later.
Pairing one of those veterans with one of the other rookie quarterbacks could work too! Blake Bortles current ADP is 170, while Derek Carr falls all the way to 215. That’s the eighteenth round!
Although, it’s important to not always fall for the rookie hype. Last season’s top two rookie quarterbacks are left with very little value. EJ Manuel is outside of the top twenty quarterbacks with an ADP of 195, while The Jets Geno Smith is near the bottom of the quarterback list and wasn’t even selected in three of the March mock drafts. His ADP of 232 shows that he has almost no value at this time.
In the past, the backup quarterback turned starter path has not been kind to players like Kevin Kolb, Matt Flynn and many others. Yet, I still see some potential value in a pair of players currently backing up future Hall of Famers. Ryan Mallett is becoming an afterthought at QB34, only being drafted in one league. There have been recent trade rumors surrounding Mallett and while it would surprise me if the Patriots dealt him, he will be a free agent next season. He remains a solid stash in deeper leagues, as well as two quarterback leagues. The same can be said for Peyton Manning’s backup, Brock Osweiler, who was a little more popular than Mallett with an ADP of 230.

Running Back:

There was little change at the top of the running back heap in March with LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Eddie Lacy keeping their spots as the top three running backs according to our ADP data.
The rookie class of 2013 continues to be well represented. Along with Lacy (12), Giovani Bernard had as ADP of 14 and Le’Veon Bell came in at 16. The trio makes up half of the top six backs in dynasty football. Let’s not forget Zac Stacy either. His ADP of 29 is good enough to place him as RB10 for March.
The second year stars keep shining, though some haven’t proven themselves quite as much as the group above. Montee Ball (45), Andre Ellington (52), Christine Michael (61) and Marcus Lattimore (76) are all expected to see their role expand in 2014, yet are already being valued as top twenty-five running backs.
The incoming rookie class seems to be providing some excellent value if you can pick your poison. Currently, Ka’Deem Carey is the top valued rookie runner, but he still fell to the RB22 slot. Former Ohio State Buckeye Carlos Hyde was close behind, but then there was a large gap before another rookie came off the board. Expect most of the rookie running backs to see their ADP improve once they have actually been drafted.
Some of my top targets this off-season have been the aging backs who could still provide fantasy starter points for a fraction of the cost of the most coveted players. These players have really lost a great deal of value over the past year or two, yet could still help a fantasy contender. Among this group are Arian Foster (61), Ray Rice (89), Chris Johnson (99), Darren McFadden (121), Frank Gore (124), and Maurice Jones-Drew (143). Take a look at the hit these players have taken in dynasty value over the past year.

Wide Receiver:

Wide receivers continue to rule the first few rounds. Seven wideouts have an ADP of ten or better, with half of the top twenty-four players coming from this position.
The “Big Six” as they are now often called, continue to set themselves apart from the rest. This group, of course, includes Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Josh Gordon, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas. The Bears Alshon Jeffery is making his claim to become the seventh member of the group with an ADP of 10 in March.
Jeffery is also opening a slight gap between himself and the next tier of wide receivers, which includes Cordarrelle Patterson, Randall Cobb and Keenan Allen, among others. Although Patterson was on the rise since February, both Allen and Cobb fell slightly.
Speaking of risers, one of the wide receivers seeing the biggest one month gain was incoming rookie Mike Evans, based on the strength of his NFL combine performance. Evans jumped more than a round and now has an ADP of 35, good enough to place him as WR18.
What the running back position lacks in depth, the wide receivers more than make up for it. Fantasy starters can be found as late as WR80. This not only includes short-term options like Steve Smith or Reggie Wayne, but even some younger players who’ve seen their value hurt over the past year, like Mike Williams (169) and Kenny Britt (170).
Expect some of the early free agency winners to get a big boost in next month’s drafts, but for now we can just look back at the value we could’ve had. Golden Tate was WR65 with an ADP of 155, while new Redskins receiver Andre Roberts often went undrafted and finished with an ADP of 230.

Tight End:

The tight end position continues to be the top two players, and then a larger tier much further down the line. Jimmy Graham is easily the TE1 and has been drafted that way in each off-season mock done to this point. His ADP of 9 gives us something relatively rare, a tight end being routinely selected in the first round of startup drafts. Next, of course is oft-injured Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski. Despite his recent injury history including a twice broken arm, back trouble and a torn ACL, he remains the TE2 and a second round dynasty pick.
The next tier has featured 2013 breakout stars Jordan Cameron and Julius Thomas, and while they are still the next two in line, they now have company as the gap has closed and the second tier now includes Ladarius Green (61), Jordan Reed (70) and Vernon Davis (75).
We knew the top three rookie tight ends and it was also easy to predict the order the trio would come off the board. What surprised me looking at the data though, is the gap between Eric Ebron (89) and his fellow incoming rookies, Jace Amaro (109) and Austin Seferian-Jenkins (130). Amaro didn’t impress at the combine, while we learned of Seferian-Jenkins’ broken foot, which kept him on the sidelines. Both should gain value as we near the draft.
It seems that every year a tight end or two break out. I’ve already mentioned Thomas and Cameron from last year. One of the strong candidates for a 2014 breakout is Luke Willson, who could take over as the starter in Seattle with Zach Miller now out of town. Willson still was only TE24 though, with and ADP of 192. Another candidate following the early free agency news is Ryan Griffin of Houston, who is near the bottom of the tight end list, with an ADP of 237. Expect a dramatic rise in draft position for Griffin in April mocks.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.