Running Back Sleepers
Editor’s Note: This article is submitted by a new Member Corner writer, Paul Perdichizzi, who recently penned similar articles with a look at his tight end and wide receiver sleepers. We look forward to seeing much more of Paul’s work in the future.
With the landscape of the running back position in the NFL changing, it has made the evaluation in terms of fantasy football that much more challenging. In the NFL today, there are very few bell cow running backs in the mold of Adrian Peterson in existence. More than ever, teams are using committee approaches to handle the running back duties. Many teams are now using two or even three running backs, each with specialized roles such as being an early down back, a third down back, a goal line back or change of pace back. With the carries, yards, receptions and touchdowns being shared amongst a few backs on each team, it has made it harder than ever to predict running back production from year-to-year in fantasy football. In addition, with the lifespan of a running back so short in the NFL, dynasty owners have to take that into account when weighing the pros and cons of a running back prospect against that of a wide receiver, tight end or quarterback. More than any other position, production from running backs is based on opportunity as much as it is on talent. A smart owner constantly needs to be scouring the depth charts and looking for the next diamond in the rough. Below is a list of five potential sleeper running backs heading into this off-season who could see their dynasty value significantly increase in the next year or two. While most of these names will be on dynasty rosters already, make sure their current owners are valuing them correctly.
Christine Michael, RB SEA
When the Seattle Seahawks used the 30th pick of the second round in the 2013 draft on Michael, it surprised many people throughout the football world. Without a first round pick that year due to the Percy Harvin trade, most expected Seattle to draft a player who fit a more immediate need on the roster. Instead, even with Marshawn Lynch coming off a great season and having drafted Robert Turbin the previous year in round four, Seattle still elected to add a running back with their first pick. Michael, who is 5’10”, 221 pounds was drafted out of Texas A&M after four up and down seasons. He had a great freshman season and start to his sophomore year before breaking his leg. Then in his junior year, he once again was showing his elite skill set before tearing his ACL in his left knee late in the year. In his senior season, he landed in Coach Kevin Sumlin’s doghouse and was just a reserve for the Aggies. Even though Michael had injury and character concerns, no one questioned his overall talent. Many considered him one of the most talented running backs in the draft due to his speed, strength, agility, and ability to break tackles.
Even though Michael exploded onto the scene last preseason, his rookie season did not amount to much. He only carried the ball 18 times all season for 79 yards. While he will enter the season in a competition with Turbin for the backup spot to Lynch, the coaching staff is already talking about their high expectations they have for him. Coach Pete Carroll recently said in an interview that Michael is the Seahawks “biggest breakout candidate” entering next season. With Lynch turning 28 in April, having 900 carries over the last three seasons and his aggressive running style, it is possible Seattle will look to start to lessen his workload this upcoming season. In addition, Lynch only has two years left on his contract and Seattle could decide following this season that they are ready to hand the reigns over to Michael. He would be my number one target in all of dynasty fantasy football to acquire this off-season. When given a chance to become a starter one day, he has the potential and upside to be a top five running back in all of football. While his owner probably drafted him in the late part of round one or early part of round two in rookie drafts last year, see if they are getting anxious about waiting another year or two for Michael to get his big break. His current owner may be willing to take back a player that has already started to live up to their potential or a high draft pick or two in a really deep rookie draft this year. I would rank Michael over all of the running backs in this upcoming draft and by a wide margin.
Marcus Lattimore, RB SF
Once upon a time, Lattimore was on the verge of becoming the next great running back to be drafted into the NFL. He exploded onto the scene at South Carolina and dominated the competition in his freshman season. Then both his sophomore and junior seasons at South Carolina were cut short due to a series of horrific injuries. In his sophomore season, he tore his ACL in his left knee and then in his junior season, after rehabbing back, he tore all three ligaments in his right knee. Lattimore saw his stock go from being a high first round selection to being drafted in the middle rounds. In the end, he had to wait until the 34th pick in the fourth round of last year’s draft, before he was drafted by San Francisco.
Lattimore, who is 5’11”, 221 pounds, once displayed a mixture of power, balance, vision and speed few others could match. His rookie season in the NFL was a redshirt year for him. The 49ers were one of few teams loaded with talent and draft picks, so they were willing to just draft him and let him continue to rehab as he tried to come back again and display the qualities that once made him an elite prospect. The news this off-season has been encouraging, as it sounds like Lattimore is going to be ready for all team activities and will be ready for the start of camp. With Frank Gore turning 31 in May and entering the last year of his contract and Kendall Hunter not distinguishing himself as the heir apparent, Lattimore has a major opportunity in front of him. If he can show his talent is still there, he can acclimate himself into the 49ers offense this season as a role player and then potentially be in line to be their starting running back the following season. With the talent on their team, especially on the offensive line, Lattimore would be set up to succeed right away. Similar to Michael, Lattimore was probably drafted in either late round one or most likely round two of rookie drafts last year. As the off-season progresses, make sure to follow any news on Lattimore closely, to see how his health is looking and if the reports are good, check in with his current owner and see if they value him as a potential RB1 in a year or two.
Latavius Murray, RB OAK
Similar to Lattimore, Murray’s rookie season for Oakland ended up being a redshirt year. Murray suffered an ankle injury in minicamp last offseason following the draft and was put on injured reserve towards the end of the preseason. He was the Raiders sixth round draft choice last season. Coming out of the University of Central Florida, Murray was not drawing much attention before the draft as he was not even invited to the Scouting Combine last February. He started to change his status following his pro day when he ran a 4.38 forty yard dash and had excellent vertical and broad jump numbers at 6’3” and 223 pounds. Murray possesses a good blend of size, speed, power and the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. Prior to his injury, some thought Murray had a chance to become the backup to Darren McFadden. During last season, McFadden once again battled injuries and backup running back Rashad Jennings stepped in and produced with 733 rushing yards, six rushing touchdowns, and an additional 292 yards receiving. It was a career year for Jennings, who had never showed that type of ability during his time with Jacksonville. Entering the 2014 offseason, the Oakland backfield is a complete mystery as both McFadden and Jennings are unrestricted free agents. McFadden is not expected back and Jennings’ status is unknown at this time. Reports have surfaced over the last few weeks that Oakland is excited to see what they have in Murray. While they will most likely try and bring back Jennings or sign a veteran back to replace him, Murray is going to get a chance this season to show the staff what he has and make a name for himself. While Murray is probably only on rosters in deeper dynasty leagues, target him as a low cost running back option who has the potential to really break out if given the opportunity.
Khiry Robinson, RB NO
When Robinson went undrafted last year out of West Texas A&M and signed on as an undrafted rookie free agent with the Saints, the expectations were he would struggle to make the final roster, let alone contribute in his rookie season. Even with three established running backs in Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles ahead of him on the depth chart, Robinson found a way to make a name for himself last year. His running style reminded the Saints of the guy he had replaced, Chris Ivory. Robinson is 6’0”, 220 pounds and is very physical in his running. With Ingram missing time due to injury, Robinson got an opportunity to see the field. He responded by carrying the ball 54 times for 224 yards and a touchdown in the regular season and also had 21 rushes for 102 yards and a touchdown in two playoff games. With New Orleans dealing with major salary cap issues, there are rumors that Sproles and Thomas may need to be cut to free up some space to pay superstar tight end Jimmy Graham. In addition, Ingram, the former Heisman Trophy Winner and first round pick, has not lived up to the hype is entering the final year of his contract. If Thomas and Sproles are both cut, Robinson could step in this year as the early down and goal line back next to or ahead of the disappointing Ingram. If Robinson impresses, he could be the clear cut starter entering the 2015 season. Many people around the NFL think highly of Robinson, with Hall of Fame Coach Bill Parcells recently comparing his skill set to Hall of Fame running back Curtis Martin. If Robinson is on the back end of a team’s roster, target him in all trades this off-season, as his value is still low due to currently being fourth on the depth chart.
Jordan Todman, RB JAX
In 2011, the San Diego Chargers drafted Todman out of Connecticut in the sixth round, hoping he would be able to replace what Darren Sproles had provided them before leaving for New Orleans. Todman, who is 5’10”, 198 pounds, never truly got a chance to show San Diego what he could do. He was cut during the early part of his rookie season, but cleared waivers and signed on to the Chargers practice squad. Towards the end of the 2011, the Minnesota Vikings signed him off that practice squad. After a few impressive showings during 2012 preseason games, Minnesota cut him before the start of the season, but again he cleared waivers and signed onto their practice squad. The Jacksonville Jaguars were the next team to give Todman a shot, signing him off the Vikings practice squad late in the 2012 season. While he did not get a chance to show his talents at the end of that season, Todman did show what type of potential and upside he had during the 2013 preseason. He rushed 29 times for 223 yards, which was good for 7.68 yards per carry. When the season started, he was second on the depth chart, but it was not until Maurice Jones-Drew was injured that Todman truly got a chance to shine. In week 15, with Jones-Drew inactive, he carried the ball 25 times for 109 yards and also caught four passes for 44 yards. While that was his only start of the season, Todman displayed excellent speed and vision running the ball. Entering next season, Todman is currently atop the depth chart, and as an exclusive rights free agent, Jacksonville can retain him for the league minimum salary. With Jones-Drew a free agent and not expected back, and Denard Robinson entering only his second season and still trying to make the conversion exclusively to running back, the starting running back position is wide open. If Jacksonville does not sign a veteran running back or draft one high in the draft, Todman will get a chance to be the primary ball carrier next season. If week 15 was any indication, Todman is ready to step up and take over that role.
While these are the names of five running backs I would target this off-season, some other names to closely monitor who may see their value increase due to their usage and opportunity are Vick Ballard of the Indianapolis Colts, Edwin Baker of the Cleveland Browns, Chris Polk of the Philadelphia Eagles, Roy Helu of the Washington Redskins, CJ Anderson of the Denver Broncos and Bernard Pierce of the Baltimore Ravens.
For any further questions, use the comments below or contact me on twitter at @paulie23ny
