The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) In my 12-team, half-PPR league, I’ve been offered DeAndre Hopkins for Trent Richardson. I drafted T-Rich first overall a couple of years ago and I’m reluctant to part with him, because of the usual hope of, “Maybe, he’ll turn it around this year.” As we start one running back, two receivers and a FLEX, is this a good trade? – Rob in Calgary
Based upon the February ADP, this isn’t even a question. Texans receiver DeAndre Hopkins is currently being viewed as a mid-third round selection in startup drafts (ADP = 29.3), while Colts’ running back Trent Richardson is falling to the late fourth (ADP = 47.5). With that said, your league structure presents some mitigating factors.
First and foremost, the half-PPR format serves to lessen the value of pass catchers relative to that of running backs. Given the sometimes unpredictable usage of receivers (only Pierre Garcon and Antonio Brown recorded at least five catches in every game last season), this drop in each player’s weekly floor can devalue the position, at least somewhat. In this case, owners craving a stronger likelihood of guaranteed weekly touches might choose to lean towards running backs.
Continuing, your starting requirements are relatively low for a 12-team league. Depending on the designation of the FLEX position, on any given week a maximum of 24 running backs and 36 receivers can occupy starting lineups. With the relative depth of running back versus receiver, this could again be viewed as black mark for the pass catching position.
With all that said though, I’d still lean towards Hopkins. He had a promising rookie season despite some horrific quarterback play and serves as a nice complement for ageless wonder Andre Johnson. He could be a startable asset for you as soon as next year, and I view his likely career output as greater than Richardson’s – despite the nostalgia, I’d cut bait with the disappointing T-Rich.
2.) In my 12-team PPR league, I can protect four players, but no more than two per position. My choices are Russell Wilson, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Shane Vereen, Andre Ellington, Victor Cruz, Justin Blackmon, Kendall Wright, Tavon Austin and Jordan Cameron. I also have an offer of trading Peterson for Josh Gordon. Would you make this trade, and which four would you protect? – Eric in NJ
First things first, given your plethora of options at the running back position, I would absolutely trade Adrian Peterson for Josh Gordon. I’ve written plenty about the Browns’ young receiver, and just recently my new AIR metric viewed him as the most efficient receiver amongst the PPR top-12 players. Factoring in their respective ages, as well as the longevity differences between the two positions, I think you’d be hard-pressed to find owners who wouldn’t make this deal.
Your only other obvious move is to protect Eagles’ running back LeSean McCoy. Truthfully, this decision needs no further explanation – the guy is as elite as they come. He’ll serve as the foundation of your ball carrying corps for at least three more years, if not longer.
For your last two selections, I’d protect the Patriots’ Shane Vereen and the Giants’ Victor Cruz. Vereen has RB1 upside in a PPR setting, as well as a preponderance of skill. Truthfully, the only questions about him involve workload (as a function of coach Bill Belichick) and his checkered injury history – however, as a RB2, you could do a heck of a lot worse.
With Cruz, I’m truthfully not overly high on him and believe his 2011 campaign will go down as the best season of his career, by far. However, he’s the number one option of an offense that should rebound, and has proven WR1/WR2 ability. With Gordon and Cruz, you’ll already have one of the better receiving pairs in the league.
Honestly, the only players I’ve excluded who give me any pause are Andre Ellington and Kendall Wright. I’ve written ad nauseam about Ellington and believe he offers true breakout potential. With improved quarterback play, I believe the same holds true for Wright. I certainly wouldn’t fault you if you found space for either player (at the expense of Vereen or Cruz), but if you can’t I’d attempt to trade them for improved positioning in your dispersal draft.
3.) I don’t have a starting quarterback in my 14-team league. I currently hold picks 1.01, 1.03, 1.10 and 2.01, and am also strong at receiver (Demaryius Thomas, Keenan Allen, Alshon Jeffery, Cordarrelle Patterson, Michael Floyd and DeAndre Hopkins). I’m leaning towards Sammy Watkins at 1.01, but the owners of Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Jay Cutler and Tony Romo are all weak at receiver. How would you position picks or trade to fill this hole? – Ryan in NY
Even despite your dearth of signal callers, I don’t think there’s any reason to overspend just because you have an excess of picks and pass catchers. In fact, I’d choose to go the opposite route and adopts a “less is more” strategy. In other words, what’s the most painless way to fill your void?
I’ve long espoused the virtues of Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, and for good reason – every year he’s healthy, he’s a surefire QB1. Yet despite this, he continues to function as one of fantasy’s forgotten men, typically passed over for more youthful options. I like him as a target for your team.
The other interesting name you mentioned is Chicago’s Jay Cutler. Though he catches flack for his seeming dispassion for the game, Cutler was recently signed to a seven-year contract. “Just” 30 years of age, this could lock Cutler into head coach Marc Trestman’s QB-friendly offense for the rest of his career – he makes for a great “buy” at the position.
Therefore, I’d offer pick 1.10 straight up for either of the quarterbacks mentioned above. You already have two picks in the early first round (as well as the first pick in the second) to shore up any other needs, so using the late first rounder to plug your biggest hole would be a bargain in my eyes. If you’re unable to pull that off, I’d offer up pick 1.03 for Russell Wilson, but would make sure to maintain the rights to Sammy Watkins (pick 1.01) no matter what.
4.) Travaris Cadet anyone? With the Saints possibly releasing Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas, what’s his worth in PPR? – Carl in MA
With New Orleans scrambling to save money for the imminent and much needed Jimmy Graham extension, several Saints veterans are likely to be on the chopping block. Receiver Lance Moore has already been released, and it’s rumored that Darren Sproles (and perhaps Pierre Thomas) could be next. If both Sproles and Thomas were to indeed hit the market, they take the majority of the Saints’ 2013 backfield production with them.
Between rushing and receiving, Sproles and Thomas accounted for 200 carries, 148 receptions and 1,886 total yards. To put that in perspective, those numbers represent 51.2%, 33.2% and 28.4% of team totals, respectively. To put the cherry on top, Sproles even returned 75.9% of the team’s combined kickoffs and punts – suffice it to say, this duo of ball carriers was beyond integral to the team’s success.
Though the majority of current hype has been bestowed upon Mark Ingram and Khiry Robinson, it’s entirely possible for forgotten man Travaris Cadet to forge a role as well. Ingram and Robinson function best in a two-down role as “hammer” running backs, but to date lack a proven ability to catch passes. Robinson still has yet to catch his first regular-season pass, and Ingram has tallied a mere 24 receptions through three years.
It’s true Cadet has been no regular season dynamo either, but many likely forget his sublime 2012 preseason run. During the season’s warm-up phase Cadet recorded a whopping 30 receptions, turning him from camp body afterthought to rostered player. With a pass-catching void, is he primed to replicate that previous success?
In my opinion, he’s worth the shot for owners in deep leagues. Many forget Sproles was a relatively sparsely used gadget player during his time in San Diego, but upon moving to the Big Easy he’s averaged 5.3 receptions and 45 receiving yards per game during his three-year run. The operative point is that if any team can make an “out of nowhere” story possible, it’s New Orleans – so for an end-of-bench upside stash, why not see if Cadet can be the next guy?
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