Rankings, The Great Myth: Wide Receiver Edition

Scott Peak

In our third installment of Rankings Mythology, we will analyze the data on wide receivers. We use the same methods as with our first two series on running backs and quarterbacks. Here is a  review of our methods:

  1. Preseason projections were recorded for the 2013 season.
  2. Total points scored were recorded weeks 1 to 17 for all players included in this study.
  3. Standard scoring was used, as it was the method used in the projections data obtained from the site.
  4. Data for the top 40 wide receivers were recorded.
  5. Projected point totals were subtracted from actual point totals, and this ended up being a positive or negative number, depending on whether projections were over or underestimated.
  6. The accuracy of each author in predicting the exact numerical ranking for each player was recorded.

 Table 1

table1

Table one shows the top 10 PPD for wide receivers in 2013. We again noticed a strong trend for authors to overestimate projections. 90% of the top ten are players with a strongly positive PPD. The only underestimate to make the top 10 is Josh Gordon and he was a huge revelation for fantasy owners. One author failed to rank him amongst the top 40, and the other three ranked him as WR34 to WR38, or a flex play in 12 team leagues. Gordon finished as the WR1 in standard scoring, so that’s a fairly big miss. Those owners who took Gordon as a WR38 value were rewarded handsomely.

Players like Jones, Williams, Cobb, White and Wayne were tough to call, but nevertheless show how injuries can strike at any time, and adversely impact projections.

The two most obvious projection errors were Britt and Austin. The authors seemed to think Britt was in for a down year, as they predicted him to finish at WR27 to WR40, or no better than a high-end WR3 or WR4 in 12 team leagues. Unfortunately, Britt was far worse, finishing as the WR143. Britt has been a hard player to quit, tantalizing fantasy owners with his talent, sporadically huge games and first-round draft pedigree. Still, Britt has never finished higher than WR22 (2010), and the other years he was WR48 to WR90 (2009, 2011-12). The average projection for Britt in 2013 was 125 points and even in 2010 he scored 131 points, just 6 points above his average projection for 2013. Even though the authors correctly downgraded him, they just didn’t drop him far enough. If you toss out 2010, Britt averaged 72 points per year (2009, 2011-12). The lesson learned is, when a player shows a long trend of disappointing results, it might be best to just leave him off your board altogether.

Austin had as many red flags as Britt. He missed six games in 2011 with balky hamstrings and his 2012 season showed sagging production despite playing in all 16 games. Austin’s best year was 2009 and his production has steadily declined. His points per game has dropped from 10 (2010) to 9.9 (2011) and 8 (2012). His snaps per game (SPG) have also been declining, 63 (2010) to 57 (2011) and 55 (2012). His SPG in 2013 ended up at 49, so it seems the Cowboys are playing him less by the year. Throw in his sagging production the prior three years plus his long history of hamstring injuries and that is a recipe for a steep drop in rankings.

Amendola is another player with a track record of disappointing fantasy production. Amendola’s average projection was 139 points (range 136 to 149), or a WR2 to WR3 in 12 team leagues. Amendola’s best year as a pro was 2010, and he scored 95 points, good for the WR46. All other years up to 2012, he averaged 42.5 points per year, ranking as the WR56 to WR157. Yet, his average projection was 139 points for 2013, clearly far higher than any of his previous years in the NFL. He simply has a tough time staying healthy, making it even harder to understand his projections. Amendola finished as the WR60 with 75 points in 2013. It seems like another player with overly optimistic projections based on a perceived good situation.

It’s hard to knock the authors for taking a bold prediction with Brown. The Chargers had a gaping hole at wide receiver, while both Malcom Floyd and Danario Alexander had a long history of injuries. Brown flashed his talent in 2011 and in pre-season 2012 before ending his year on IR with a broken ankle. Floyd and Alexander both had short seasons, getting hurt and were non-factors for 2013. Keenan Allen seized a glorious opportunity, and Brown couldn’t beat out Eddie Royal. Needless to say, Brown didn’t meet expectations. The most plausible explanation is Brown’s injury robbed him of explosiveness, as Brown still logged 991 snaps on the year, played all 16 games, yet only managed 41 receptions, 472 yards and one touchdown. Brown will have one more shot to prove his worth in 2014, but I’m guessing his projections will be sharply reduced in 2014.

Table 2

table2 Table 2 shows the success rates of predicting the top 10 and 20 WRs in 2013 for each author. The success rates are 45 to 55% in both situations, and this is a better performance compared to running backs, but not quite as good as with quarterbacks. At best, projections are a 50/50 proposition, so success rates are still not ideal and there is a lot of turnover in the top 20 WRs.

 Table 3

table3

Table three shows the total number of correct rank numbers for each WR. There are 160 opportunities to get a correct ranking, and the authors got a total of five right, or 3%. This is better than with running backs (0.625%), but worse than with quarterbacks (3.75%). The trend right now is less than 4% of rankings will be correct once a season is finished.

Table 4

table4 Table 4 shows the PPD as both an average and range. As with both quarterbacks and running backs, the trend strongly favors overestimating projected points, placing fantasy owners at risk for drafting players with disappointing results. In fact, the disparity is even more obvious if you throw out Gordon’s PPD, and the average PPD for each author drops to -26, -28, -24, -30. The most negative PPD, aside from Gordon, was -58 for Antonio Brown. Far more players will bust than break out.

Want more evidence? Check out the next table.

Table 5

table5

As with quarterbacks and running backs, there is an overwhelming tendency to overestimate projections, and it is most apparent with wide receivers. This position scored the highest percentage of overestimates for all positions at 69%. While running backs had the highest PPD of all positions (+69 to +77), wide receivers more frequently were overestimated (69%) compared to running backs (63%). This might seem strange, but the data suggest that, while wide receivers are more likely to perform below projected points, running backs have a much steeper fall in total points. Moreover, while authors only predicted 30% of the top 10 running backs, they were able to improve at wide receiver, with 50% correct. Wide receivers appear to be the safer option compared to running backs.

table6 So, how can we use this data to improve projections and rankings of WRs?

  1. 50% of wide receivers in the top ten succumbed to serious injuries that would have been hard to predict. Expect the unexpected. The good news is that, if you take a chance on a young, talented wide receiver like Jeffery, Allen, Williams or Gordon, such risks could bring substantial rewards. Cooper is a player who benefited from an injury to Jeremy Maclin, but in the Chip Kelly offense, was worth a gamble. Decker and Brown are always undervalued. If you are really desperate, there are older players like Boldin available late, or players like Edelman or even Cotchery who could provide surprising production for very little price.
  2. Age is not as much of a factor for wide receivers, as the only older wide receiver in the top 10 PPD list that failed to produce as expected was Wayne, and he was unexpectedly injured. Wayne had not missed a game in his career since 2002, so that was not predictable. Boldin finished as the WR15 despite his advanced age.
  3. First or second year wide receivers seem to be more reliable than ever with Allen, Williams and Jeffery finishing in the top 40 wide receivers. Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans and Marqise Lee are all very valuable dynasty assets, but could also be solid starters early in their careers.
  4. Don’t ignore history as Britt and Austin both were huge risks and predictably bottomed out in 2013.
  5. Situation, like running backs, isn’t always a reliable indicator, as Brown and Amendola showed. Situation is still a factor but be cautious with players who have red flags (injury history, character issues, etc.).
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