Dynasty Stock Market: The Forgotten Free Agent Wide Receivers

Ryan McDowell Posted On March 6, 2014

The long awaited NFL free agency period kicks off in less than a week – Tuesday, March 11^th to be exact. This is a day all NFL fans and dynasty players look forward to as it gives their teams a chance to improve. That could refer to the team they cheer for each Sunday or the fantasy team they manage in hopes of a championship. Regardless, the 2014 NFL calendar year begins Tuesday and this is the part of the season where all teams are still contenders.

The year’s free agent crop already seemed shallow and with a few of the top free agents already re-signing with the teams or being slapped with the dreaded franchise tag, the list of unrestricted free agents is even less impressive. Much has been said about Hakeem Nicks, who will certainly be finding a new team after his stint in New York ended on a sour note. There’s also a trio of veteran running backs who are, or soon will be, available to find a new home – these include Ben Tate, Maurice Jones-Drew, Darren McFadden and Chris Johnson, who is expected to be given his walking papers by the Tennessee Titans, even though he was not scheduled to be a free agent this season. The quarterback and tight end lists look even more pathetic following the Bears contract extension with Jay Cutler and the Saints controversial franchise tag of tight end, or is it wide receiver, Jimmy Graham.

With all of that being said, I ask you to quickly think back to the free agency period of 2013. You’ll recall that the New England Patriots, who always seem to make the perfect decision in building their team, let veteran wide receiver Wes Welker was away to the Denver Broncos. While many criticized the decision to play hard ball with Welker, the Patriots seemed secure with their decision and that was due, in part, to the agreement they would soon have with another free agent wideout, Danny Amendola. I had never been a believer in Amendola, mostly due to his lengthy injury history, but this seemed to be the perfect offense for his skills. Many agreed with that theory and his value soared. Take a look at the ADP chart below if you don’t remember this ascension in dynasty value yourself.

amendola

Do you think Amendola would’ve had this same increase in value if he signed with the Miami Dolphins? What about the Oakland Raiders? In fact, it can be argued Amendola landed in the perfect spot. He went from being viewed as a talented, but flawed role playing wide receiver to being the presumed top receiver in one of the best offenses in the league and all he did was change teams, just as many wide receivers will do in the next week.

There are a handful of wide receivers who have been forgotten about, yet have a chance to enjoy a dynasty resurgence just as Amendola experienced a season ago. These are all players who have had varying levels of success, but like Amendola, have some faults in their game, or their character, that have caused dynasty owners to leave them on the back burner of their fantasy teams. Some of these free agents could re-sign with their most recent teams, which of course would have no affect on their value. Some others will chase the money and end up signing with a team that will not offer them a chance to breakout. There’s likely to be at least one who lands in the perfect spot and that will have the dynasty community buzzing.

Here’s a look at five free agent wide receivers who could see a jump in value, just like Amendola in 2013.

Emmanuel Sanders

Free agent Emmanuel Sanders nearly got away from the Pittsburgh Steelers a year ago when he was a restricted free agent and received an offer from the New England Patriots. Sanders saw a short spike in value when it was presumed the Steelers would not match the offer, but once it was inevitable that the team would also be saying goodbye to Mike Wallace, they had no choice but to match the offer. That move all but guaranteed Sanders would be leaving the team this off-season.

Once the contract situation was handled, Sanders went out and put together his best season of his four year career, boasting career highs in targets, receptions, yardage and touchdowns, though was still considered a disappointment in his first year as a full-time starter. The Patriots and Jets have already been linked to Sanders with free agency looming. If the Patriots feel they can sign Sanders for a reasonable contract, they could be willing to let free agent Julian Edelman walk and the hype could start all over again. Of the players listed, Sanders has a great chance to be the one who causes a stir among dynasty owners in the next several days, mostly due to the Patriots previous attempts to acquire him.

James Jones

It appears as if wide receiver James Jones has played his last down for the Green Bay Packers. The team drafted Jones in 2007 and he’s been a productive player for one of the best offenses in the NFL and alongside one of the top quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers. Jones has never been the team’s featured pass catcher, as he has always played behind talented players like Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb. In 2012, with Jennings and Nelson both missing at least a month’s worth of action, Jones took advantage and had the best season of his career from a fantasy perspective, although that was greatly inflated with an anomaly of fourteen touchdowns. Jones previous career high was seven scores and he only found the end zone three times this past season, despite Cobb and tight end Jermichael Finley missing much of the season. Jones turns 30 years old this month and though he can be a solid second or third receiver, I’d be surprised if he end up being the next Amendola, in terms of seeing a dramatic value increase.

Andre Roberts

The third player I’ve pegged is another who seems almost certain to be leaving his former team. Recent reports say free agent Andre Roberts and the Arizona Cardinals have not had any talks about a new contract. It sounds like the Cardinals are ready to move on from their former third round pick. Roberts has been a solid role player for the team, but has never been able to break out as a fantasy asset. In many ways, he’s what I’d call a roster clogger. He has never been consistent enough to consider as a fantasy starter, but he’s always had just enough value to hang on to and hope for the breakout. It appears as if that won’t be happening with the Cardinals.

Roberts just missed out on a chance to play with quarterback Kurt Warner and since Warner retired following the 2009 season, the Arizona quarterback situation has been miserable. The starting quarterbacks since Roberts includes Derek Anderson, John Skelton, Max Hall, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Lindley, Brian Hoyer, and finally, Carson Palmer. Palmer did come in and improve the offense somewhat, but by the time he arrived last season, the Cardinals were already handing more snaps and targets to Michael Floyd, and who could blame them?

There has been little to no speculation about where Roberts could end up or which teams could have interest in him, but Roberts has taken to Twitter to drum up some interest and it seems to be working. I’ve seen many football minds I respect tab Roberts as an under the radar free agent who could make an impact.

Kenny Britt

I know many of you will disagree with this one, but I just can’t give up on former Titans wide receiver Kenny Britt. Although all four of these wideouts are likely to be playing for a new team come 2014, Britt is the one we can feel most certain about. He’s clearly work out his welcome in Nashville, mostly due to his repeated off the field issues. He’s also the most talented of these four players and possibly the most talented free agent wide receiver overall.

Britt’s first two seasons in the league were marred by repeated run-ins with police, though Britt continued to get off without much of a penalty. In 2011, he began the season on a tear and the dynasty world took notice. He was quickly being talked about as a top five wide receiver and saw the same type of value increase as Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery experienced this past season. Unfortunately, that didn’t last long as Britt suffered a torn ACL in the season’s third game and was lost for the remainder of the year. Britt has never really been able to come back from that. I’m unsure if he didn’t put in the necessary work rehabilitating the injury, but he clearly has not been the same. The Titans seemed to have already made their mind up in 2013 because Britt rarely saw the field. In fact, it’s odd that the team did not just release Britt rather than wait for him to hit free agency.

The question now becomes, which teams will be willing to take on the troubled former Titan? Three teams come to mind that have shown the willingness in the past to work with players who’ve experienced some off-field issues and any of the three could help Britt quickly regain some dynasty value. The three, of course, are the Patriots, Seahawks and Bengals. With the improvement shown by Marvin Jones last year, the Bengals are the least likely to take a chance on Britt, but landing in either New England or Seattle would give Britt a boost.

For your reference, here’s a look at how the value of these four players has changed over the past calendar year. Let’s see what happens in April once we know where these players will spend their 2014 season.

chart2

*Note- Special thanks to Ryan Rouillard for creating the template for our new ADP graphs. Follow Ryan on Twitter and check out his work at www.rotoviz.com

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.