Dynasty Capsule: Dallas Cowboys
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
We continue our path through the NFL with the Dallas Cowboys.
Quarterback
Tony Romo
The Cowboys’ franchise quarterback is coming off yet another year in which he performed as a solid starting fantasy quarterback. Romo’s consistency in this regard over the years has been uncanny:
Other than in 2010 when he only played in six games due to injury, Romo has been a stalwart QB1.
In many ways, he appears to be set up to continue his impressive fantasy track record in 2014 and beyond. The Cowboys are fifth overall in pass attempts over the past three seasons and have an impressive array of offensive weapons. The main question that looms over Romo’s fantasy prospects have to do with the back injury that placed him on injured reserve, ending his 2013 campaign a week early. Romo went on to undergo surgery in December to address a herniated disc, which was the second back surgery he had in 2013, the other being to remove a cyst on his spine in May. It’s not clear if the cyst was related in some way to the disc problem, but the bottom line is Romo is turning 34 this year, and is coming off a season in which he was shut down due to back problems.
There’s no reason to assume he will definitely have back problems moving forward, but it is possible. Owners who have been reaping the benefits of Romo’s steady production over the years may want to ensure they have a decent #2 option behind him. Even if he does not experience any more issues with his back, pairing a quarterback in his mid-thirties with a younger heir apparent with who has some upside is a good idea.
Kyle Orton
The 31 year-old Orton is rumored to be a cap casualty candidate this off-season. The Cowboys are projected to be well over the cap and would save about $1 million by cutting Orton. That said, there is no other quarterback on the roster and it might not be a great idea to start from scratch at this spot considering Romo’s aforementioned potential health concerns. Expect the Cowboys to try and restructure Orton’s deal, but if they can’t, he could be gone. Last year, the Cowboys signed Jon Kitna out of retirement to backup Orton in Week 17. They also recently worked out Mike Kafka, who ended up signing with the Buccaneers.
Running Back
DeMarco Murray
Murray finished 2013 as the fifth overall running back based on points per game. He led all running backs with at least 150 carries in yards per carry at 5.2. He also added just under five catches per game and found the end zone 10 times. He just turned 26, plays with an explosive offense, and is entering a contract year. Long story short, Murray is really, really good. He’s the rare all-purpose running back who is still in his prime.
Unfortunately, Murray was again not able to play an entire season, which has become the one and only blemish on his record. However, he did avoid serious injury and played in 14 games. This tendency to miss at least some time is what keeps him from being considered a top five fantasy running back by most, but make no mistake about it, if you are a Murray owner, you have a young, talented, all-purpose RB1.
It’s worth pointing out Murray is entering the last year of his rookie deal. With the cap situation the Cowboys find themselves in, it appears likely he will have to play out the final year in his contract. Whether or not he remains in Dallas after this season is an open question.
Lance Dunbar
After signing on to the Cowboys as an undrafted in free agent in 2012, Dunbar participated mostly as a special teams player. Entering 2013, however, the hope was he could serve as change of pace option to Murray. Unfortunately, much of Dunbar’s season was derailed by injuries, concluding with a hyper-extended knee that ended his season after the Cowboys’ week 13 victory over the Oakland Raiders – that was the only game in which Dunbar received a significant workload and the result was 94 total yards on 13 touches.
At 5’8” and 188 lbs., it’s unlikely Dunbar would ever step into a primary ball carrier role, even in the event Murray misses time. That said, he has shown flashes and is a solid receiver, so he might well be a serviceable flex option in PPR leagues in Murray’s absence.
Joseph Randle
The 2013 fifth round pick saw some action when both Murray and Dunbar were out with injuries, amassing 44 carries in weeks six through nine. Randle only managed a 2.45 yards per carry average over this period and was quickly ushered back to the bench when Murray returned. He only had ten more carries over the rest of the season, nine of which came during garbage time in the fourth quarter of a week 14 loss to the Bears.
Randle was disappointing when an opportunity presented itself to him in his rookie year, but he remains a contender for the #2 spot behind Murray moving forward.
Wide Receiver
Dez Bryant
The 25-year old former first round pick finished 2013 as the ninth receiver based on points per game. Despite a couple of head-scratching games in which Bryant was barely targeted, he still managed to finish the season as the sixth most targeted wide receiver with 156, just two behind Brandon Marshall. Bryant did experience some ongoing tightness in his back throughout the season, but it did not prevent him from playing in all 16 games.
All in all, there isn’t a whole lot to say about Dez Bryant. He’s a young, elite receiver on a pass heavy offense, playing with a very good quarterback. His rookie contract ends after the 2014 season, so an extension is likely on the horizon for Bryant, although it will take some fiscal finagling by the cap-strapped Cowboys. Still, expect a deal to get done and Bryant to remain a high-end WR1 for the foreseeable future.
Miles Austin
Austin is one of the first names mentioned in every cap casualty article being written this off-season and even a quick glance at the circumstances surrounding Austin makes it easy to see why. With the unexpected increase of the salary cap to $130 million, the Cowboys are still projected to be approximately $15 million over that limit. Releasing Austin (and designating him at a post-June 1st cut) will save the Cowboys around $5.5 million in cap space that will go a long way to signing their 2014 rookie class.
More importantly is the fact Austin is overpaid, having been signed to a six-year, $54 million (with $17 million guaranteed) back in 2010. He has been severely limited by recurring hamstring injuries, missing six games in 2011 and five in 2013. In 2012, Austin played in all 16 games and finished as the #21 overall wide receiver. He’s a talented player (is still only 29 years old) and if he can stay healthy moving forward, I think he has a reasonable chance of having at least a partial fantasy resurrection, but it will not be with the Dallas Cowboys.
Terrance Williams
After overtaking Dwayne Harris for the third receiver job in the pre-season, Williams had some a few miscues early in his rookie season, dropping some passes and fumbling the ball. He eventually got into a groove and, filling in for the injured Miles Austin, put up some big games and finished the season with 44 receptions for 736 yards and five touchdowns. With Austin’s departure being a procedural matter at this time, it’s odd there is not more optimism in the fantasy community around Williams, who seems to be a lock to take the #2 job in Dallas.
The most recent DLF mock data has Terrance Williams as the #43 overall wide receiver drafted in the month of February. This is right between Roddy White and Wes Welker and well behind several other second-year wide receives whom Williams outperformed (Tavon Austin, Justin Hunter and DeAndre Hopkins).
An interesting parallel can be drawn to Rueben Randle. Randle also appears to be on the brink of a promotion to a #2 job with the impending departure of Hakeem Nicks. Randle, a third year player, had 41 receptions for 611 yards and six touchdowns in 2013. Williams put up 44 receptions for 734 yards and five touchdowns in 2013 as a rookie. You would think the two would have a similar fantasy outlook, perhaps with the edge even going to Williams given that he’s on the better offense. Yet Randle went off the board as the #26 receiver in the February mocks, 17 spots ahead of Williams.
It’s unusual for a young wide receiver who is in line to get a promotion in a high octane offense to fly under the radar in dynasty circles, but it seems to be happening here. If you don’t own him, send out some feelers before the Austin cut is made official and people wake up.
(Note: While in the process of writing this article, I completed a trade in which I sent the #14 overall pick in a 2014 rookie draft for Williams. We here at DLF practice what we preach!)
Cole Beasley
Beasley played 24% of the offensive snaps in 2013, carving out a role for himself primarily from the slot. He proved to be a reliable target for Romo, with 20 of his 39 receptions going for first downs. It’s possible Beasley gets a bump in playing time with the departure of Austin, but he’s not likely to emerge as a fantasy option with all of the other weapons in the Cowboys offense.
Dwayne Harris
After Harris gave way to Terrance Williams in the pre-season, he went on to play only 14.8% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps and only caught nine passes all year. He is primarily a special teams contributor at this point.
Tight End
Jason Witten
It was an unusual season for the twelve-year veteran. Normally a reliable PPR machine with low touchdown totals, Witten flipped the script in 2013, registering his lowest reception (73) and yardage (851) totals since 2006. Fantasy owners were saved by his scoring eight touchdowns, a number he’s reached only one other time in his career. This helped Witten finish as the sixth overall tight end, despite failing to score double-digit points in nine out of the 16 fantasy weeks. This inconsistent production can be at least partially attributed to his targets, as he was thrown to just 111 times, down from 147 times in 2012.
A top six finish sounds good, but in 2013, this put Witten squarely in the “just a guy” range. He just barely edged out Charles Clay and finished only a few points ahead of Antonio Gates, Greg Olsen and Martellus Bennett.
If you are running a contending team, Witten is a fine, if unspectacular, starter. But with the emergence of several other younger tight ends and an impressive looking rookie class entering the fray this year, the 32-year old is definitely a declining dynasty asset. Ideally you can pair Witten with someone who you are still waiting to develop, such as Tyler Eifert or Ladarius Green.
Gavin Escobar
The 2013 second round pick did not make much of an impact in his rookie season, playing only 20% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps and being targeted just 15 times. The natural receiving ability that made Escobar a second round pick is still there, but so are the questions about his all-around game, particularly his blocking.
One notable change the Cowboys made to their coaching staff was the hiring of Mike Pope, the long-time tight ends coach for the Giants. Many feel Pope’s top priority is to oversee the development of Escobar. For the short-term, Escobar won’t be taking away any snaps from Witten, but if he can improve, he may force the Cowboys to put him on the field more via more 12 man personnel packages, particularly if Williams is slow to develop into the #2 receiver role.
Escobar is an interesting buy-low candidate in deep leagues, particularly in tight end premium ones.
