Dynasty Capsule: Indianapolis Colts

Brian Bulmer

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We continue our path through the NFL with the Indianapolis Colts.

Quarterbacks

Andrew Luck

andrew_luck3Luck is a cerebral quarterback who poses dual threat ability and has the ceiling of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rogers or Tom Brady. Luck was more efficient in 2013 throwing for nine fewer interceptions and the same number of touchdowns. He managed to finish as a top ten fantasy quarterback for the second consecutive year.

Luck will be heading into his third year and did a lot with a little in the 2013 season. The offense lost several offensive players throughout the season including Ahmad Bradshaw, Vick Ballard, Reggie Wayne and Dwayne Allen. Luck still managed to be more efficient through the air with fewer weapons to work with.

Currently Luck’s dynasty ADP based on February ADP is at pick 2.06. His ceiling is much higher than most quarterbacks and he has put up QB1 numbers the last two seasons. He will only continue to get more comfortable with the offense and will gain several players back for the 2014 season. In my opinion, he’s the best dynasty quarterback to own.

Matt Hasselbeck and/or Chandler Harnish

Hasselbeck signed a contract through the 2014 season and is expected to retire following this season. Harnish signed a future/reserves contract in January and is expected to be back on the practice squad in 2014. Luck is locked into the quarterback position and neither of these guys are worth picking up in dynasty leagues at this point.

Running Backs

Trent Richardson

I will start by stating the obvious – Richardson had a horrible season in 2013. Dynasty owners cringed during the bye week at the thought of plugging him into lineups (or maybe that was just me). Richardson has a career yards per carry average of 3.3 and fumbled a handoff in a playoff game when it seemed like all hope was lost for the Colts. This is not a player who screams “stud” based on this information.

How could have so many evaluators, scouts, draftniks, etc. miss this badly on a prospect? He was a five star running back in high school, broke SEC records at Alabama and was selected third overall by the Cleveland Browns. He also ran for nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie and scored 11 rushing touchdowns. Finally, he was voted the 71st best player in the NFL by his peers in 2013.

I would say his talent is somewhere in between that awful player we saw and the player we thought we all scouted. As such, I am not going to crown Richardson as one of the top running backs in the league as he did not prove to be that in 2013. I would, however, also suggest he has a playbook to learn and chemistry to build in the off-season with his new team. Richardson with some confidence and offensive line help can be a better running back. He will be 23 at the start of the 2014 season and did not use a lot of “tread” in 2013 due to his ineffectiveness. With an ADP of 3.11, I consider Richardson to be a value pick in startups and I would not pass on him in the third round. I love his potential and will be trying to buy him this entire off-season if the price remains in that range.

Vick Ballard

Ballard played in one game in 2013 prior to tearing his ACL in practice. It appeared he was ready to break out and play in a complementary role alongside Ahmad Bradshaw. Ballard looks to move up the depth chart just behind Trent Richardson in 2014 due to the probable losses of Bradshaw and Donald Brown to free agency. Ballard will likely take on a complementary role with ability to move up depending on Richardson off-season comfort within the offense. He is worth a flier in leagues if people are not confident Richardson will return to his rookie season form.

Donald Brown – Likely a Free Agent

Brown appeared to be the only productive and consistent running back in Indianapolis this season. He was able to amass over 700 total yards and eight touchdowns. The former first round pick reaches the end of his rookie contract with Indianapolis and will likely hit the open market. There are teams looking to add depth in the offseason and I do not expect Indy to re-sign him. Brown should find several suitors, but I do not see him as an every down back in the NFL.

Ahmad Bradshaw – Likely a Free Agent

Simply put, Bradshaw is fragile. In seven NFL seasons, he has only played 16 games on one occasion. He was able to play three games for the Colts in 2013 before his season derailed due to a neck injury. Unless the Colts can get Bradshaw to resign dirt cheap, he will likely hit a very dry open market. He is a solid running back in pass protection and will be relatively young in years (28) this season, but his durability is a huge question mark. The February dynasty ADP data had him go undrafted in every mock draft. He might be worth a flier late in drafts, but the likelihood he lands in a new location is low at this point.

Wide Receiver

Reggie Wayne

Wayne exited the field during week seven with an ACL tear and at age 35 he says he will return stronger and faster than he was in 2013. Wayne has been the top wide receiver in Indianapolis since 2007, but his dynasty value is on the downturn due to his age. Wayne is a solid WR3 and can still produce fantasy points, but his volume will likely decrease with the emergence of TY Hilton. Wayne is still a quality start in fantasy leagues, but he is near the end of the line.

TY Hilton

The injury of Reggie Wayne opened the door for Hilton to show if he has the ability to be the man in Indianapolis. He finished the season as a top 20 wide receiver and he will only be 24 in the 2014 NFL season. Hilton’s current ADP is 4.03 according to DLF mock drafts in February. Hilton has a lot of upside in an offense that contains the best young quarterback in the game in Andrew Luck.

Da’Rick Rogers

Rogers is a former undrafted rookie who was pulled onto active roster late in the season for the Colts. His coming out party occurred in week 14 when the Colts were blown out by the Bengals, but Rogers emerged with six catches for 107 yards and two touchdowns. Rogers had the talent to be a first round pick in the 2013 draft, but his off the field issues scared a lot of NFL executives away. Rogers current ADP is 9.07, which could be a value pick if Rogers continues to see a large volume of snaps in the Indianapolis offense.

LaVon Brazill

Brazill missed the first four games of the 2013 season with substance abuse issues, but will be just 25 heading into next year. As the fourth wide receiver on the roster, he could lose time if the Colts decide to spend a high pick on a wide receiver in the draft to replace Reggie Wayne in the near future. Brazill is a nice depth wide out, but I am not sure he will see a big increase in snaps once Wayne retires.

Griff Whalen

As the fifth wide receiver for the Colts, Whalen did not see a lot of snaps in 2013. He was actually cut on one occasion and brought back. The former teammate of Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, Whalen has chemistry with his former signal caller. At this point, Whalen should only be added in deep leagues. He could be a roster casualty if the Colts decide to draft a wide receiver.

Tight End

Coby Fleener

With Dwayne Allen on the shelf with a hip injury most of last season, Fleener stepped in and did not take full advantage of his opportunity. He did finish the season as a high end TE2, but averaged just 8.5 PPR points per game on average – over 3.5 points below the TE9, the aging Antonio Gates. In an offense with Andrew Luck and no Reggie Wayne, that is a low average. Fleener is a solid tight end, but not the tight end I would want to own in the Indianapolis offense.

Dwayne Allen

The Colts offense missed Allen in the 2013 season. He is nearly two years younger than teammate Coby Fleener as he will be 24 heading into the 2014 season. Allen is currently the 16th tight end being taking in DLF Mock Drafts. He has all the tools to be an effective tight end, but the use of two tight end sets reduces Allen’s volume. Allen can produce low TE1 numbers, but may always get fewer opportunities because of Fleener.

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