Dynasty Stock Market: 2QB ADP

Ryan McDowell Posted On February 27, 2014

Last month, we finally answered the call of many of our readers and jumped head first into the world of 2QB dynasty leagues. Not only did I shell out some 2QB dynasty ADP data, but one of our newest Member Corner writers, James Simpson, offered a terrific overview of these unique leagues in his piece 2QB Leagues: Where Quarterbacks Rule.

As I mentioned last month, these leagues are growing in popularity as leagues try to contend with the loss of value that has occurred at the quarterback position when only one starter is required. With that in mind, I’m back with a look at the February ADP data. As James so thoroughly pointed out, it’s the quarterback position that rules these leagues. While other starting positions must be filled, the signal callers are the prime time players and those are the ones I will focus on today. Let’s see which quarterbacks are rising and falling over the past month.

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Some reminders about the data before I share some of my observations. There were only two 2QB mock drafts as compared to the six we normally run for our other ADP data. This can cause the data to be slightly less reliable, but is still a good tool to use when drafting or analyzing an existing team.

February was the first month the rookies were available in the MyFantasyLeague system and the top four rookie passers provide unbelievable value in this pair of mocks. Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel were tied with an ADP of 55, meaning on average they were going off the board in the mid-fifth round. While this may seem high to some, they were being drafted behind veterans like Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger and Tony Romo. There is a very good chance one of those players ends up as the consensus choice as the 1.01 rookie pick in 2QB drafts. Would you trade Cutler or Roethlisberger for the 1.01? Of course you would! The next pair of rookies offer even more value as Blake Bortles, who could still end up as the top player selected in the NFL draft, falls to the mid-sixth round, but is only the twenty-first quarterback selected. Finally, Derek Carr finishes as QB29, with an ADP of 116.
There was little change at the top of the draft. For the second consecutive month, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton and Andrew Luck are the top three overall players. The order did change, with Rodgers being the top player selected in each draft, but this trio is clearly in a different tier as compared to other quarterbacks.
Going a bit deeper and we still find little change over the past two months. In January, there were just four quarterbacks with a first round ADP. That number grows to six in February, barely, as Matthew Stafford and Nick Foles both end up with an ADP of twelve.
As we go three rounds deep, the numbers are still relatively unchanged. Thirteen quarterbacks among the top 36 January players and twelve chosen in the same range in February.
As we get towards the middle rounds of the draft, there are some dramatic drops in ADP, many of these unexplained. Andy Dalton fell nearly two full rounds, Alex Smith dropped over two rounds, while EJ Manuel and Joe Flacco plummeted almost five full rounds from January to February. Granted, none of these players are the kind you brag about drafting, but in a league such as this, I’ll say it again, quarterback is king! Dalton is coming off a top five finish in 2013 and Manuel is just entering his second year. We should not be giving up on him, especially in this format. In fact, his fellow rookie from a season ago Geno Smith was not even drafted among the top 30 quarterbacks in February.
There were only two players who had significant gains from January through February, but they are just as curious as those mentioned above. Ben Roethlisberger jumped twelve spots, a full round into the early fifth round range, while Eli Manning climbed seventeen spots to an ADP of seventy-two. Maybe these were just over-corrections from a low January ADP, but nothing has happened in the past month that should see these two moving up draft boards.

Finally, for those interested in the full ADP data from our 2QB mocks, here it is:

OVERALL	AVG	Mock 1	Mock 2
Rodgers, Aaron GBP QB	1.0	1	1
Newton, Cam CAR QB	2.5	2	3
Luck, Andrew IND QB	2.5	3	2
Green, A.J. CIN WR	4.0	4	4
McCoy, LeSean PHI RB	6.5	5	8
Charles, Jamaal KCC RB	7.5	8	7
Brees, Drew NOS QB	7.5	10	5
Johnson, Calvin DET WR	8.0	6	10
Gordon, Josh CLE WR	8.0	7	9
Bryant, Dez DAL WR	11.5	9	14
Stafford, Matthew DET QB	11.5	11	12
Foles, Nick PHI QB	12.0	18	6
Jones, Julio ATL WR	13.5	12	15
Graham, Jimmy NOS TE	16.0	13	19
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR	17.0	16	18
Ryan, Matt ATL QB	17.5	19	16
Manning, Peyton DEN QB	17.5	24	11
Jeffery, Alshon CHI WR	19.0	15	23
Lacy, Eddie GBP RB	19.5	17	22
Wilson, Russell SEA QB	19.5	26	13
Forte, Matt CHI RB	21.5	14	29
Kaepernick, Colin SFO QB	22.0	20	24
Martin, Doug TBB RB	23.5	22	25
Griffin III, Robert WAS QB	24.0	27	21
Bernard, Giovani CIN RB	24.5	21	28
Allen, Keenan SDC WR	27.5	23	32
Peterson, Adrian MIN RB	28.5	37	20
Patterson, Cordarrelle MIN WR	29.0	31	27
Cobb, Randall GBP WR	29.5	25	34
Bell, Le’Veon PIT RB	29.5	29	30
Brown, Antonio PIT WR	30.5	35	26
Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE	31.5	28	35
Marshall, Brandon CHI WR	31.5	32	31
Tannehill, Ryan MIA QB	34.5	30	39
Lynch, Marshawn SEA RB	35.5	38	33
Rivers, Philip SDC QB	36.5	56	17
Thomas, Julius DEN TE	37.0	33	41
Spiller, C.J. BUF RB	37.0	34	40
Nelson, Jordy GBP WR	38.0	40	36
Harvin, Percy SEA WR	39.5	41	38
Brady, Tom NEP QB	40.5	39	42
Murray, DeMarco DAL RB	43.0	43	43
Crabtree, Michael SFO WR	43.5	50	37
Romo, Tony DAL QB	44.5	45	44
Morris, Alfred WAS RB	46.0	44	48
Stacy, Zac STL RB	46.5	42	51
Garcon, Pierre WAS WR	47.5	46	49
Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB	49.5	36	63
Watkins, Sammy FA WR (R)	50.5	49	52
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR	50.5	51	50
Vereen, Shane NEP RB	53.5	47	60
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR	53.5	54	53
Floyd, Michael ARI WR	54.0	52	56
Cutler, Jay CHI QB	55.0	55	55
Manziel, Johnny FA QB (R)	55.0	64	46
Bridgewater, Teddy FA QB (R)	55.0	65	45
Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR	55.5	53	58
Jackson, DeSean PHI WR	57.5	61	54
Dalton, Andy CIN QB	59.5	60	59
Bush, Reggie DET RB	61.5	57	66
Ball, Montee DEN RB	63.5	48	79
Cameron, Jordan CLE TE	65.5	62	69
Cruz, Victor NYG WR	66.0	58	74
Wright, Kendall TEN WR	68.0	63	73
Richardson, Trent IND RB	68.0	75	61
Bortles, Blake FA QB (R)	70.0	83	57
Smith, Torrey BAL WR	71.0	66	76
Manning, Eli NYG QB	71.5	96	47
Rice, Ray BAL RB	74.0	80	68
Johnson, Andre HOU WR	74.0	84	64
Blackmon, Justin JAC WR	76.0	68	84
Michael, Christine SEA RB	76.0	90	62
Randle, Rueben NYG WR	77.0	71	83
Evans, Mike FA WR (R)	77.0	76	78
Foster, Arian HOU RB	78.5	86	71
Mathews, Ryan SDC RB	79.5	72	87
Carey, Ka’Deem FA RB (R)	79.5	74	85
Lee, Marqise FA WR (R)	80.0	67	93
Davis, Vernon SFO TE	80.5	89	72
Jackson, Vincent TBB WR	81.0	92	70
Tate, Ben HOU RB	81.5	77	86
Hunter, Justin TEN WR	82.5	69	96
Hyde, Carlos FA RB (R)	83.0	78	88
Decker, Eric DEN WR	84.0	87	81
Lattimore, Marcus SFO RB	84.0	88	80
Ellington, Andre ARI RB	85.0	70	100
Smith, Alex KCC QB	85.0	105	65
Bradford, Sam STL QB	85.5	104	67
Pitta, Dennis BAL TE	86.0	81	91
Reed, Jordan WAS TE	86.5	79	94
Austin, Tavon STL WR	91.0	107	75
Williams, Terrance DAL WR	91.5	94	89
Witten, Jason DAL TE	91.5	106	77
Edelman, Julian NEP WR	92.5	95	90
Boykin, Jarrett GBP WR	93.0	59	127
Miller, Lamar MIA RB	93.0	82	104
Benjamin, Kelvin FA WR (R)	95.5	73	118
Rudolph, Kyle MIN TE	98.5	99	98
Eifert, Tyler CIN TE	100.5	93	108
Green, Ladarius SDC TE	100.5	98	103
Seastrunk, Lache FA RB (R)	101.0	91	111
Nicks, Hakeem NYG WR	102.0	97	107
White, Roddy ATL WR	102.5	113	92
Moreno, Knowshon DEN RB	103.0	109	97
Mason, Tre FA RB (R)	103.5	85	122
Ertz, Zach PHI TE	106.0	102	110
Ebron, Eric FA TE (R)	106.5	108	105
Robinson, Allen FA WR (R)	107.5	101	114
Manuel, E.J. BUF QB	110.0	103	117
Maclin, Jeremy PHI WR	111.0	120	102
Woodhead, Danny SDC RB	112.5	110	115
Locker, Jake TEN QB	112.5	143	82
Flacco, Joe BAL QB	114.0	115	113
Wallace, Mike MIA WR	114.5	128	101
Ridley, Stevan NEP RB	116.0	111	121
Carr, Derek FA QB (R)	116.0	133	99
Shorts, Cecil JAC WR	117.5	126	109
Woods, Robert BUF WR	119.0	132	106
Glennon, Mike TBB QB	120.5	112	129
Wilson, David NYG RB	121.5	100	143
Welker, Wes DEN WR	123.5	127	120
Smith, Geno NYJ QB	127.0	117	137
Adams, Davante FA WR (R)	127.0	119	135
Amaro, Jace FA TE (R)	127.0	130	124
Matthews, Jordan FA WR (R)	127.5	114	141
Brown, Andre NYG RB	128.0	118	138
Johnson, Chris TEN RB	128.0	125	131
Jones, Marvin CIN WR	131.0	136	126
Rogers, Da’Rick IND WR	132.0	122	142
Olsen, Greg CAR TE	135.0	121	149
McFadden, Darren OAK RB	135.0	137	133
Dobson, Aaron NEP WR	135.0	138	132
Murray, Latavius OAK RB	135.5	123	148
Freeman, Devonta FA RB (R)	137.0	144	130
Cooks, Brandin FA WR (R)	137.5	116	159
Beckham, Odell FA WR (R)	138.0	140	136
Bell, Joique DET RB	145.5	139	152
Amendola, Danny NEP WR	145.5	141	150
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB	148.5	131	166
Crowell, Isaiah FA RB (R)	149.0	124	174
Seferian-Jenkins, Austin FA TE (R)	149.5	145	154
Pierce, Bernard BAL RB	151.0	135	167
Sanders, Emmanuel PIT WR	153.0	142	164
Ivory, Chris NYJ RB	155.5	129	182
Hill, Jeremy FA RB (R)	158.5	134	183
Tate, Golden SEA WR	160.5	198	123
Palmer, Carson ARI QB	166.0	213	119
Fauria, Joseph DET TE	172.5	194	151
Sankey, Bishop FA RB (R)	176.5	241	112
Wayne, Reggie IND WR	178.5	241	116
Williams, Mike TBB WR	180.5	208	153
Landry, Jarvis FA WR (R)	181.5	182	181
Boldin, Anquan SFO WR	181.5	193	170
Jennings, Rashad OAK RB	185.5	192	179
Mallett, Ryan NEP QB	185.5	199	172
Johnson, Storm FA RB (R)	187.0	190	184
Johnson, Stevie BUF WR	187.5	241	134
Smith, Steve CAR WR	188.0	236	140
Hoyer, Brian CLE QB	188.5	202	175
Cook, Jared STL TE	189.5	189	190
Colston, Marques NOS WR	190.0	241	139
Todman, Jordan JAC RB	192.0	184	200
Boyd, Tajh FA QB (R)	192.0	187	197
Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR	192.5	241	144
Vick, Michael PHI QB	192.5	229	156
Gore, Frank SFO RB	193.5	146	241
Moore, Denarius OAK WR	193.5	241	146
Allen, Dwayne IND TE	194.0	147	241
Murray, Aaron FA QB (R)	194.0	241	147
Brown, Donald IND RB	194.5	203	186
Clay, Charles MIA TE	195.0	149	241
Richardson, Paul FA WR (R)	195.0	186	204
Walker, Delanie TEN TE	196.0	197	195
Fleener, Coby IND TE	196.5	152	241
Jennings, Greg MIN WR	197.5	154	241
Patton, Quinton SFO WR	198.0	183	213
Jackson, Fred BUF RB	198.0	195	201
Wilder, James FA RB (R)	198.0	241	155
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR	198.5	210	187
Wheaton, Markus PIT WR	199.0	241	157
Sproles, Darren NOS RB	199.0	157	241
Bennett, Martellus CHI TE	199.5	158	241
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB	200.0	212	188
Williams, Andre FA RB (R)	200.5	185	216
Robinson, Khiry NOS RB	201.5	241	162
Jackson, Steven ATL RB	201.5	162	241
Sims, Charles FA RB (R)	202.0	241	163
Blount, LeGarrette NEP RB	202.5	164	241
Davis, Knile KCC RB	203.0	165	241
Thomas, Pierre NOS RB	203.5	204	203
Bailey, Stedman STL WR	204.0	167	241
Cousins, Kirk WAS QB	204.5	241	168
Thompkins, Kenbrell NEP WR	204.5	200	209
Stills, Kenny NOS WR	205.0	169	241
Britt, Kenny TEN WR	205.0	196	214
Osweiler, Brock DEN QB	205.0	214	196
Helu, Roy WAS RB	206.0	171	241
Greene, Shonn TEN RB	206.0	241	171
Ingram, Mark NOS RB	207.0	241	173
Goodwin, Marquise BUF WR	207.0	173	241
Hunter, Kendall SFO RB	208.0	175	241
Franklin, Johnathan GBP RB	208.0	191	225
West, Terrance FA RB (R)	208.5	188	229
Brown, Bryce PHI RB	209.0	177	241
Kelce, Travis KCC TE	209.5	241	178
Gerhart, Toby MIN RB	209.5	220	199
Cooper, Riley PHI WR	210.5	180	241
Gates, Antonio SDC TE	210.5	209	212
Moncrief, Donte FA WR (R)	215.0	241	189
Lyerla, Colt FA TE (R)	216.0	234	198
Jones, James GBP WR	216.5	241	192
Streater, Rod OAK WR	216.5	206	227
Hartline, Brian MIA WR	217.0	241	193
Niklas, Troy FA TE (R)	217.5	241	194
Wilson, Marquess CHI WR	219.5	215	224
Kearse, Jermaine SEA WR	221.0	201	241
Housler, Robert ARI TE	222.0	211	233
Bolden, Brandon NEP RB	223.0	205	241
Grice, Marion FA RB (R)	223.0	241	205
Holmes, Andre OAK WR	223.5	216	231
Jernigan, Jerrel NYG WR	224.0	241	207
Bostick, Brandon GBP TE	224.0	207	241
McCarron, AJ FA QB (R)	224.0	227	221
Escobar, Gavin DAL TE	224.0	240	208
Brown, Marlon BAL WR	224.5	219	230
Finley, Jermichael GBP TE	225.5	223	228
Huff, Josh FA WR (R)	225.5	228	223
Whalen, Griff IND WR	226.0	241	211
Mettenberger, Zach FA QB (R)	228.0	241	215
Bryant, Martavis FA WR (R)	228.5	218	239
Ballard, Vick IND RB	229.0	217	241
Pryor, Terrelle OAK QB	229.0	241	217
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB	229.5	241	218
Schaub, Matt HOU QB	230.0	241	219
Wright, Tim TBB TE	231.0	221	241
Miller, Heath PIT TE	231.5	222	241
McGloin, Matt OAK QB	231.5	241	222
Fiedorowicz, C.J. FA TE (R)	232.5	224	241
Robinson, Denard JAC RB	233.0	225	241
Thomas, De’Anthony FA RB (R)	233.0	232	234
Abbrederis, Jared FA WR (R)	233.5	226	241
Rivera, Mychal OAK TE	233.5	241	226
Ward, Eric FA WR (R)	235.5	230	241
Ellington, Bruce FA WR (R)	236.0	231	241
Fitzpatrick, Ryan TEN QB	236.5	241	232
Gresham, Jermaine CIN TE	237.0	233	241
Hill, Stephen NYJ WR	238.0	235	241
Sanders, Ace JAC WR	238.0	241	235
Pettigrew, Brandon DET TE	238.5	241	236
Powell, Bilal NYJ RB	239.0	237	241
Griffin, Ryan HOU TE	239.0	241	237
Cunningham, Benny STL RB	239.5	238	241
Alexander, Danario SDC WR	239.5	241	238
Ausberry, David OAK TE	240.0	239	241
Givens, Chris STL WR	240.5	241	240

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.