Pre-Combine Rookie Mock Draft: Round Three
It seems tough to believe, but it is already the middle of February. The NFL Draft Combine kicks into full gear this weekend. For a lot of people, this weekend is their first time to get a firsthand look at a lot of the 2014 rookies. It is also the official start of the rookie fever season. Once people get to see the athletes with their own eyes they instantly start to fall in love. Few players rocket up draft boards like a 230 pound running back that runs a 4.40 second forty or a 6’3” receiver that jumps a 38” vertical while running a sub 4.4 forty.
This mock is designed to give you our impressions of the players prior to the combine measurements and performances. There are several players with question marks in terms of size, speed, and just about anything else. The combine will definitely impact their standing in rookie drafts and could easily push them up boards if it is a good result or way down if they are shorter, smaller, or slower than expected. To help you with those changes, we will also do a mock draft a few days after the combine.
Here is a quick refresher on the guidelines given to our drafters before each mock begins:
1) Standard PPR scoring with normal lineup requirements
2) Draft order is randomly generated and no trades are allowed
3) Draft the best player available without any consideration for team need
Once the mock is complete, each drafter was asked to provide some comments about the player they drafted. In order to provide a second perspective on each selection, I will also provide some comments on each of the choices. I’ll be the first to admit that we, and especially me, will get a few of these players wrong. This is especially true at this point in the year when the vast majority of us are just beginning our 2014 rookie evaluations.
The players in this mock, especially in the third round, are players that have caught our eye early in the process. There will be many changes as time goes on, both players shooting up and falling off our draft boards. A perfect example from last year is Le’Veon Bell. He wasn’t drafted in the first of our initial mock draft last year but was a top four pick in our later mock drafts.
We continue with a look at the third and final round of the mock draft. This is where you’re going to see a lot of our favorite high upside players. The majority of these players could easily go undrafted in fantasy leagues by the time drafts actually roll around, but at the current time we like the potential in this group.
3.01 – Isaiah Crowell, RB Alabama State
Ghost’s thoughts: Crowell had the world in his hands at Georgia. He was already being anointed as a future star in the NFL, then he made a series of very stupid mistakes off the football field that cost him his spot on the team. He transferred to Alabama State and by all accounts has gotten his life together. On the field his skills are still incredible and some team is going to get an amazing steal in the NFL Draft when they take him. I want to be the owner of the fantasy team that takes a chance on him and gets rewarded down the line.
My thoughts: Crowell might be the Titus Young of running backs. The pure ability is supreme; maybe even the best of any running back in this draft. The character concerns are also probably the highest of any running back likely to be drafted. He wasn’t used very much in the passing game, which could be a concern in today’s passing league, but he might be able to figure it out as time goes on. He’s a big risk, but that is what the third round is all about.
3.02 – Blake Bortles, QB Central Florida
Jeff B’s thoughts: Bortles is my second favorite quarterback in this draft behind Teddy Bridgewater, so getting him in the third round feels like a steal. The comparisons to Jake Locker are fair when it comes to their size and running ability, but Bortles is a much more accurate passer than Locker has ever shown the ability to be. Situation might play a role for him, but with the number of quarterback-needy NFL teams drafting in the top ten, he’s a virtual lock to be chosen high enough to warrant being the starter from day one.
My thoughts: Opinions on the quarterbacks are all over the board. At the current point in time, I’m not sure if I want any part of any of them aside from Bridgewater. Bortles and all the rest are incomplete quarterbacks in my eyes. Calling Bortles a more accurate Jake Locker is actually a very fair comparison in my eyes. I think that in the right system and playing with the right supporting cast, Bortles could be an upper end QB2 in fantasy leagues and he’ll probably be a late first round or early second round pick in superflex leagues.
3.03 – Marion Grice, RB Arizona State
Karl’s thoughts: Grice is a very versatile back. He makes great cuts in space and is excellent out of the backfield. I’ll be very interested to see where Grice lands. If he can work on his pass protection, he can find playing time in his first two years. He doesn’t have break away speed, but he is quick enough to make up for it.
My thoughts: Grice is a very versatile player who is above average at a lot of things, but excels at very few of them. A lot of NFL teams would be happy to have him come in and help out on special teams and to be their backup running back, but I doubt he is going to get a fair shot at being a starter due to his size and skill set. The best case scenario for Grice would be as a change of pace back to a bigger running back.
3.04 – Jarvis Landry, WR LSU
Scott’s thoughts: Landry isn’t the fastest wide receiver and he isn’t the biggest (6’1” 195 lbs.), but he is a solid playmaker. He had only one productive year at LSU and that’s not going to help. He also lacks the top end speed of his teammate, Odell Beckham Jr. In the end, he may not be elite, but could be a solid starter for NFL and fantasy teams. He reminds me of Victor Cruz. I like the value in round three.
My thoughts: The whole Landry/Beckham debate reminds me a lot of the Tavon Austin/Stedman Bailey debate last year. In this case, Landry fills the role of Bailey in that he was the more productive college receiver and is a little bit bigger, but lacks some of the explosiveness of his teammate. Overall, I think the LSU receivers are a step down from the West Virginia pair from last year, but Landry could see some playing time on the right NFL team. I don’t think he’ll ever be a Victor Cruz style of player, but he could be a dependable WR3 in fantasy in the mold of a Brian Hartline.
3.05 – Jared Abbrederis, WR Wisconsin
My thoughts: Since I live in the upper Midwest, I’ve known about Abbrederis for a long time now. He wasn’t highly recruited coming out of high school and was actually a quarterback and defensive back during those years. He was also a multiple time state track champion. Instead of going to a smaller school, he went to Wisconsin as a walk on quarterback. He was transitioned to the wide receiver position and it was a natural fit. As a wide receiver and return man, he was one of the best that Wisconsin has ever seen.
A high character, high motor player, he is exactly the kind of player NFL front offices want in their locker room. At 6’2”, he has the height to be a solid NFL receiver on the outside, but he needs to add a little bit more muscle to his frame if he wants to beat NFL corners. His hands and dedication to football are his real assets. He was a surprise for many at the Senior Bowl and I think he will surprise even more at the combine. It is only a matter of time before he starts to be talked about as a second round fantasy pick, which is where he belongs.
3.06 – Troy Niklas, TE Norte Dame
Ryan’s thoughts: I don’t like tight end Troy Niklas nearly as much as Ebron or Amaro, but he does have a leg up on them in one area. He’s clearly the best blocking tight end prospect in the draft. He is also one of the bigger tight ends in the draft at 6’7”, so it’s no surprise that he lacks the above average speed of Ebron and others. Niklas is one of the more traditional tight end prospects, which means he should see early playing time, but won’t make those plays that makes us think he’s actually a wide receiver in a tight end’s body.
My thoughts: The mammoth tight end probably should have stayed in college for another year to learn a bit more about playing tight end. As it stands right now, he’s a project at the position, but he still fits into that second tight end tier. I think he’s likely to be a blocker and red zone threat in the NFL, much like Joseph Fauria was this last year. However, Niklas has more athletic ability than Fauria and could actually become a full time tight end in a few years. He just needs to work hard to be a better receiver and learn how to run routes.
3.07 – Martavis Bryant, WR Clemson
Jeff M’s thoughts: I am going to put myself out there and say that Bryant reminds of Randy Moss. They have the same build and long stride and they both compete for the ball when it’s in the air. They both show great athleticism as well. And despite good hands, both have a frustrating tendency to let the ball get into their body at times. There are warts, as Bryant’s game is wildly inconsistent and unrefined. He could also stand to pack on 15 pounds. Even if Bryant doesn’t capitalize fully on his potential, the Clemson product should at least pose an immediate threat on deep throws and in the red zone.
My thoughts: I think it is dangerous to compare anyone to Moss or any other great, but I can see some of the similarities that Jeff is talking about in terms of height and athletic ability. He needs to bulk up and is very raw at the position. It could be a few years before he turns into anything fantasy owners need to take note of, but the potential is still there. Like Jeff said, expect him to be a situational receiver for a while as he tries to learn.
3.08 – Storm Johnson, RB Central Florida
Andy’s thoughts: When you are in the third round, finding value is key and nothing screams more value than a running back in my top ten. Johnson is a slasher with open hips who easily finds the cut back lane. He has good downfield vision that he uses to set up his blockers while showing a good burst of speed. He has a few shortcomings as he can dance too much and runs a little high at times. Fumbling has been an issue as he carries the ball like a loaf of bread, but I believe that is correctable.
My thoughts: The Miami transfer only had a little over 300 carries in his college career, but he made the most of them. He showed great agility and acceleration for a running back of his size, 6’1” and 215 pounds. His vision in the open field is one of the best in the class, but he suffers a little bit of Bryce Brown syndrome as he runs side to side and dances way too much behind the line. If he can be coaches to get up the field faster, he could be a steal.
3.09 – James White, RB Wisconsin
Dan’s thoughts: Once Abbrederis was selected, my attention switched to his college teammate, White. I’ve watched every game White has played in his career at Wisconsin and for the most part I’ve liked what I’ve seen. He’s quick, elusive and good in the passing game, but does have weaknesses to his game, most notably his inability to break tackles. Like many tailbacks entering the league, his fantasy value will depend greatly on where he lands. He should be able to carve out a role as a third down/change of pace back early in his career and has the potential to handle a larger workload if he continues to improve as he has over the last two seasons in Madison. I’m pleased to get my hands on any player with that type of upside this late in the draft.
My thoughts: I have very mixed feelings about White. He definitely isn’t as good former teammates Montee Ball or Melvin Gordon. He has been highly productive and had moments where he looked like a future pro. He is on the smaller side and he played behind one of the best run blocking lines in all of football. The fact that he seemed to only get what was blocked and often went down on first contact makes me concerned about his prospects in the NFL. I think he’s a special teamer and backup running back, but that’s about it at the next level.
3.10 – Colt Lyerla, TE Oregon
Tim’s thoughts: We’re deep in to crap shoot time at this point so why not really roll the dice? Lyerla had a chance to be a top-TE prospect in this class but squandered it with a series of off the field issues. Big and fast. Relatively good chance he goes undrafted in both the NFL and your rookie draft, but he could break out if given the chance and makes the most of it.
My thoughts: One of the true wildcards of this draft, Lyerla’s situation could best be compared to that of Da’Rick Rogers from last year. Lyerla is a true physical talent, but he is also a headcase. He quit on his team in the middle of the season and also has a cocaine possession charge on his record. If he were stable mentally, the 6’4″, 245 pound tight end could be a first round pick in both the NFL and in fantasy leagues. There are a lot of concerns about his desire to play and if he can be controlled at the next level. High risk, high reward pick. Perfect for the late third round.
3.11 – Terrance West, RB Towson
My thoughts: If you read the first mock draft, you know I put West into that draft as well just to get him a little bit of press. Late in the third round of fantasy draft is just about the perfect spot for him right now. I think a lot of people are going to suddenly take notice of him with the combine this weekend. He has a rare combination of size and speed. I like to think of him as a more productive, more durable Latavius Murray.
The FCS doesn’t have a very good history of producing NFL running backs, but West isn’t just another FCS running back, he is the most prolific FCS running back in a very long time. He put together 2,519 yards and 41 touchdowns on the ground just during the 2013 season. That’s right, just one season, not a career. Granted, the FCS isn’t nearly the level of competition of the FBS, but you need to take notice when someone dominates to that extreme. He has ideal size for the position and definitely has some skills. He’s a sleeper to watch through the draft process as he will likely be a late round pick in the NFL draft and in fantasy drafts. If we had four rounds in this mock, I would have waited until then to take him.
3.12 – James Wilder Jr, RB Florida State
Brian’s thoughts: If the NFL is a place for pedigree, the Mannings play quarterback, the Matthews play Linebacker, the Winslows play tight end and Wilder’s play running back. Wilder’s father was an NFL running back for ten years for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and once had 492 touches for 2,200+ yards in a season. Wilder Jr. is a 6’2” 230 pound running back from Florida St. that was losing snaps to Devonta Freeman and Karlos Williams by the end of the season. Wilder Jr. runs with reckless abandon and the results were shoulder injuries and at least one concussion in college. He has the physical talent to be a solid running back with his frame. His running style leaves him exposed to injury against bigger, faster, stronger NFL players. I feel he is worth the risk at in the third round as he is likely a mid-round running back pick in the NFL draft.
My thoughts: I have a feeling the off the field legal troubles will make Wilder drop into the last rounds of the NFL draft if not all the way out of the draft. He has great size for the position but is pretty much a straight ahead runner. There isn’t a whole lot of shake to his game, but he would be a great fit as a goal-line and short yardage back if he can keep his nose clean. Given his history, that is a pretty big if.
This is it for our pre-combine mock draft. We will be back after the combine, once everyone has a chance to see all of the players. The draft order and the players will definitely change over the next few weeks as our player evaluations really kick into high gear. Some of the names on this list will shoot up the draft board or fall way down, and there will definitely be some new names added to the list as well.
Who are the players you are surprised we didn’t pick?
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
