Dynasty Stock Market: ADP Risers
The results are in and the data has been collected from the six February DLF dynasty startup mock drafts. The February mocks are unique in that we get our first glance at the incoming rookies in the draft pool at MyFantasyLeague.com. I don’t know about you, but I’m always anxious to actually see those brand new names in their system and envision many of them on my team. The only negative of the rookies being included in the February mocks and all that follow and not the January drafts is that a large percentage of the players drop in ADP due to their inclusion. While this is natural and unavoidable, it does make it difficult to compare January and February data.
This wrench thrown into the comparison of the past two month’s data makes it even more impressive when a player’s ADP improves over this time period. When you add nearly fifty draftable rookies to the pool and a player’s ADP is still on the rise, it’s clear that player is gaining dynasty value. We’ll focus on nine players who saw relative dramatic jumps despite the infusion of youth and what exactly has changed over the last month to cause this jump in value.
Doug Baldwin, WR SEA
January ADP: 193
February ADP: 165
What happened?
Wide receiver Doug Baldwin played a major role for the Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks all season as star wideout Percy Harvin missed nearly the entire season with a labrum injury. Baldwin even led the team in catches in the Super Bowl, hauling in five passes for sixty-six yards and a score. Even with Harvin expected to be back to full strength, Baldwin should still see significant playing time and carries decent value at only twenty-five years old.
What to do?
Baldwin was certainly impressive at times this past season, but he was also inconsistent, partially due to the run heavy offense the Seahawks employ. That’s not changing anytime soon with Marshawn Lynch hanging around and Christine Michael waiting in the wings. Baldwin failed to break the 100 yards threshold in any regular season game. He’s a player I would be selling at his current increased value.
Montee Ball, RB DEN
January ADP: 66
February ADP: 53
What happened?
Although rookie running back Montee Ball was used sporadically throughout the season, his usage grew as the season wound down and he saw plenty of goal line touches. What has made the real difference and accounted for Ball’s rise on draft boards is the announcement that the Broncos are unlikely to pursue a new contract for free agent and former starter Knowshon Moreno. It seems to be the consensus opinion that the Broncos’ pass heavy offense and the opposing defenses’ focus on quarterback Peyton Manning was the primary reason for the success of Moreno. Dynasty owners are envisioning Ball being the new primary beneficiary of this situation and his value is rising as a result.
What to do?
For now, I consider Ball a hold or a buy at his price tag of a fifth round pick in startup drafts. Although I am not a big believer in Ball’s talent, the opportunity and situation cannot be denied. I expect Ball’s value to continue to rise, just as we saw from backs like David Wilson and Lamar Miller a year ago. He might even reach second round startup value, as those two did, once Moreno is officially gone and signs with another team, Ball’s value will skyrocket. Then, I would sell.
Michael Crabtree, WR SF
January ADP: 47
February ADP: 35
What happened?
Nothing has really changed in the past month for 49ers wide receiver Michael Crabtree, but I think this is a case where dynasty owners have just remembered what a valuable asset he was a year ago, and could be again paired with quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Crabtree’s value was down, of course, due to the Achilles injury he suffered. It looked like that could be a season ending injury, but Crabtree returned to the field and played well down the stretch.
What to do?
Crabtree is not quite back to his pre-injury value, so I still see this as an opportunity to buy at a discount. As a late third rounder, many consider Crabtree a steal. Expect his value to continue to rise as more and more owners forget the injury he suffered and remember his chemistry with his quarterback.
Julian Edelman, WR NE
January ADP: 101
February ADP: 86
What happened?
This is somewhat of a confusing one for me. Wide receiver Julian Edelman, who enjoyed a breakout season for the Patriots taking over for the departed Wes Welker, caught over one hundred balls and registered over 1,000 yards. Nothing has really happened the past month that should change his value, unless dynasty owners are finally realizing how large a role he played for New England this past season. Of course, there are the rumors surrounding Edelman’s future. As a free agent, reports are already surfacing regarding the Patriots’ unwillingness to reward Edelman with a big contract. Although he could end up signing for more money elsewhere, I would think that would hurt his value, not help it.
What to do?
Edelman is a soon to be twenty-eight year old slot receiver who could be leaving the team that loves to reward their slot receivers like no other. Of course, we’ve seen Welker flourish in Denver, but Edelman won’t be huddling up with Peyton Manning. Edelman’s best case is re-signing with the Patriots and even if he does, I’m still selling for a young player with more long-term upside.
Jermichael Finley, TE FA
January ADP: 234
February ADP: 204
What happened?
This could end up being one of the feel good stories of the upcoming football season. We all know tight end Jermichael Finley suffered that horrific neck injury early in the season. There were multiple reports and opinions shared that made it sound as if Finley would never play again. While this is still not a reality, over the last month, there have been multiple positive reports about Finley’s future. One quote from the surgeon who performed the operation on Finley’s neck says there is a 99.9% chance of the former Packer making a full recovery.
What to do?
Finley has shown he has the talent to be a great fantasy tight end, but the negatives are piling up for the free agent. First, Finley is very unlikely to return to the top offense in Green Bay. Combined with the injury and his up and down play over the past two seasons and Finley is not a player I want to count on. With that being said, his February ADP places him in the seventeenth round of twelve team startup drafts. It’s hard to find much more upside that late and I’d be glad to take a chance on him there. If he begins to move up to the twelfth round range, that is when I’d begin to back off.
Percy Harvin, WR SEA
January ADP: 45
February ADP: 27
What happened?
As I mentioned earlier, Seattle wide receiver Percy Harvin missed much of the season with a torn labrum, which required surgery. Even when he initially attempted to return to the field, he dealt with some setbacks. He finally was game ready in the Seahawks’ first playoff game, but suffered a concussion and was out of action until the Super Bowl. His kickoff return for a score reminded dynasty players of his true ability when he’s able to stay on the field and, as a result, his value moved nearly back to where it was pre-injury.
What to do?
I don’t have strong feeling about Harvin either way at his current mid third round value. If his ADP continues to rise, I would certainly be a seller as I do worry about his mounting injury history and there is enough concern regarding the Seahawks reliance on the run game to also hurt Harvin’s value.
Marcus Lattimore, RB SF
January ADP: 100
February ADP: 77
What happened?
It can be argued that not only has Marcus Lattimore’s situation not changed in the last month, but that it hasn’t even changed in the past year. Lattimore was the running back, once considered the top back in his class, before he suffered the horrific knee injury that could have ended his career. Lattimore was still drafted, but we all knew he wouldn’t see the field this year, especially considering the 49ers running back depth. Lattimore is expected to participate in the team’s off-season program, which is great news for the young back. This rise in value is likely due to owners looking at an aging starter in Frank Gore and trying to get ahead of the curve by acquiring Lattimore now.
What to do?
I think that is a great plan. I have high hopes for Lattimore and once he steps on the field and can prove he’s healthy his value will really grow. He’s somewhat of a risky pick in the seventh round, but those are risks you sometimes have to take, if you believe in the talent. I’m a buyer on Lattimore and suggest you should be too.
Khiry Robinson, RB NO
January ADP: 192
February ADP: 155
What happened?
After some early season playing time while Mark Ingram was injured, we heard little from undrafted rookie running back Khiry Robinson until the end of the season. As the playoffs approached, Robinson’s role grew in the Saints’ offense and his value is growing as a result. Like some of the others mentioned, nothing has really changed for Robinson in the past month, so maybe fantasy players are just noticing the success Robinson had during the playoffs.
What to do?
We’ve seen this before. Even though the Saints have a highly drafted running back in Ingram, they aren’t afraid to give playing time to a no-name player. They’ve done the same with Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory. Those players have both had some level of success, but the Saints’ offense is so pass heavy and their running back usage is so unpredictable, that I don’t value Robinson very highly at all. I’d love to swap him for a future second round draft pick.
Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN
January ADP: 127
February ADP: 101
What happened?
After an infuriating past two seasons, many dynasty owners seemed ready to give up on Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph. Once considered a top five tight end by many, he has disappointed with multiple zero catch games, at least partially due to pathetic quarterback play. While we can assume that will be a priority to improve during the off-season, dynasty owners were moving on to players like Ladarius Green, Zach Ertz and the like. But then, the Vikings made a move. No, not a quarterback upgrade. The team hired Norv Turner a their offensive coordinator. It was just what Rudolph needed to regain some dynasty relevance. Turner is well-known for featuring the tight end. He had years working with Antonio Gates in San Diego and most recently helped turn Jordan Cameron into a top tier dynasty tight end. Rudolph is next on the list.
What to do?
It’s safe to assume Rudolph will see an increased role and also that the Vikings will improve their quarterback situation. That combination of events makes Rudolph an easy buy outside of the top one hundred, which he is, barely, in our February data. Expect Rudolph to continue to move up the boards and approach the ADP of others like Cameron and Julius Thomas.
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