Dynasty Capsule: Chicago Bears

Jacob Feldman

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re again going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We start our path through the NFL with the Chicago Bears.

Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler

cutlerIt isn’t very often we are still talking about potential by the time a quarterback reaches their 30s and is in his ninth year in the league. However, I feel that is part of what we are doing with Cutler. It is hard not to see he has one of the most talented arms in the entire league. He can make throws only a very small handful of quarterbacks can make. Unfortunately, he has a hard time making the right decisions on the football field. He has also developed some issues staying on the field. He hasn’t played all 16 games in a season since 2009.

When you put all this together, you get a quarterback who is above average with the potential to be a top ten quarterback in the league. That’s why the Bears just gave him a new seven year contract worth an average of $18 million a year. The first three seasons are fully guaranteed, locking him in as the unquestioned starter for at least that length of time.

The good news is that Cutler had his second best year of his career on a per game basis in 2013 under his new coach and system. Combine his new coach and system with the weapons at his disposal; it should make him a pretty solid QB2 in most leagues if he can stay on the field with a chance to reach low end QB1 numbers.

Josh McCown (FA)

Technically, McCown is a free agent, but both he and the Bears have expressed mutual interest in a new contract. He is going to be 35 years old and he knows the system in Chicago is a perfect fit for his skills. He is also great friends with Jay Cutler, so I fully expect him to be back on a reasonable deal. It will likely be somewhere in the $3 to $4 million a year range for two or three years. McCown wouldn’t be as effective somewhere else and he knows it.

McCown showed this season he can run the Bears offense at a pretty high level and get the most out of the weapons at his disposal. Should Cutler go down, he can step right up and be an immediate QB2. In superflex or two quarterback leagues, he definitely needs to be on a roster given the issues Cutler has had staying on the field. Even in traditional leagues with deeper rosters, you might want to consider picking up McCown if you own Cutler.

Running Backs

Matt Forte

For years, Forte has been one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL and in fantasy leagues. This is especially true in PPR leagues. He has at least 1,485 yards from the line of scrimmage every single season of his career to go with at least 44 receptions. Last season was Forte’s best season in rushing yards, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. In other words, Marc Trestman’s system definitely agrees with Forte’s skill set. Forte has also been fairly durable, playing all 16 games in four of his six seasons, only missing a total of five games in the other two.

The only concern with Forte comes down to his age. He recently turned 28 years old towards the end of the 2013 season. With his size, durability, style of play and the current Bears’ offense, I fully expect Forte to continue to post RB1 numbers for the next two years. After that, we all know how dicey things can be for running backs entering a season at 30 years old or more. He’s still pretty high on my list of running backs at this point in time and could be majorly undervalued in your league right now if you play the age card.

Michael Bush

Remember when Bush was thought of as the next Michael Turner? He was supposed to be the next former backup to move to a new team and become a solid RB1 on fantasy teams when he left the Raiders a few years ago. Sounds a lot like some of the current free agent running backs, doesn’t it? Anyway, he signed with the Bears and has looked absolutely terrible ever since. He has averaged less than 3.5 yards per carry and hasn’t even been an effective goal line back. In fact, he lost that role to Matt Forte this past year even though Bush has nearly 30 pounds on the starter.

Turning 30 this summer and due over $6 million for the next two seasons, Bush is almost certain to be released this offseason. In all likelihood, he’ll take the veteran minimum and act as a backup for someone else if he ever gets signed by someone else. His career could very likely be done.

Michael Ford

The undrafted rookie free agent signed with the Bears shortly after the 2013 draft. He has very good size for the position at 5’10” and 216 pounds and showed surprising athleticism at the combine. Unfortunately, he was just a backup at LSU and didn’t see any playing time outside of special teams as a rookie in 2013 with the Bears. He’ll be back with the Bears next year, but I think they will find someone else to be Forte’s direct backup. Either a current free agent or a middle round pick in the draft. Unless the Bears pass on the position both in the draft and in free agency, Ford has no place on rosters.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall

For the first time in his eight year career, Marshall had a legitimate wide receiver opposite him. Jeffery’s emergence means Marshall took a small step back from his 2012 stat line, but that was to be expected. There was no way he could sustain what he did in 2012. By almost all measures, 2013 was Marshall’s second best season, even though he played several games with a backup quarterback. He should be locked in as a rock solid WR1 for the 2013 season no matter what happens.

The days of off the field issues seem to be in the past with him, but there are a few reasons to be concerned about Marshall moving forward. First and foremost is his contract expires after the 2014 season. Marshall will turn 30 years old this spring and has had some chronic hip issues over his career. It is possible that with Alshon Jeffery, the Bears could decide to let the then 31 year old Marshall walk instead of paying him top dollar on a new contract.

If that happens, Marshall’s production will probably take a hit and he could immediate drop down to WR2 levels. With the hips issues, it is fair to wonder how far into his 30s Marshall will be able to remain a top target given his physical style of play. It isn’t going to hurt to start testing the trade market on Marshall.

Alshon Jeffery

After his rookie season, I had some major reservations about the former second round pick. He struggled with injuries and didn’t seem all that driven when he was on the field. He seemed to have a long way to go. Then 2013 came along and he exploded. Every concern I had about Jeffery was answered with his breakout season. He led the Bears in receiving yards and made some of the best catches of any receiver in the entire league. He showed ability at the point of the catch that cannot be taught.  Combine that with his size, speed and improving route running and he needs to be considered as a top ten dynasty wide receiver.

The long term future will be interesting for Jeffery. At the current point in time, he often gets the benefit of Marshall drawing the top cornerback. That might not be the case as soon as 2014 if Marshall ends up going to a different team. I expect Jeffery to be up for the challenge though and expect him to be a top receiver for years to come. Who would have ever thought the Bears would have two of them at once?

Earl Bennett

No one expected Earl Bennett to have a multi-year career as an almost starting wide receiver in the NFL because he honestly wasn’t all that talented. Nonetheless, he has managed to take full advantage of his relationship with college teammate Jay Cutler and parlay it into a decent NFL career as a third wide receiver. It also speaks volumes about the Bears’ inability to find any kind of quality depth in their receiving corps. The Bears really need to upgrade their depth or else they need one of their young receivers to step up. If Bennett is still their third best receiver at the start of 2014, that is bad news for the Bears. In terms of fantasy, even if Jeffery or Marshall were injured, I don’t think you can look to Bennett for any kind of reliable production. He isn’t a fantasy asset and has almost no upside.

Marquess Wilson

The 2013 rookie was a disappointment. He was active for only half of the games and only recorded two catches – that’s pretty bad considering the lack of talent behind the top two receivers on the team. Wilson has good size, decent hands and nice speed. He lacks strength though and often struggles with press coverage as well as catching contested passes. He needs to add a lot of strength and needs to improve his route running to help create more space. There are also still some concerns about his dedication and willingness to work. He will be given a chance to climb the depth chart this offseason though, and he makes for an interesting long term stash in deep leagues.

Terrence Toliver

The only other non-returner on the Bears roster right now is Toliver. The tallest of all of the receivers, Toliver was originally thought to have some promise as a red zone threat in the NFL. That hasn’t really worked out for him and he is yet to be active for any team in the NFL. If it comes to the point where any team, real or fantasy, is considering Toliver as a real option there is something wrong. Look elsewhere.

Tight Ends

Martellus Bennett

Bennett’s first year with the Bears and second year as a starter was a success. While he wasn’t a fantasy powerhouse, he was a solid player, coming in as a low end TE1 in PPR leagues. He’ll turn 27 this Spring and there isn’t any reason to think he can’t continue to post numbers right around his 65 receptions, 759 yards and five touchdowns he managed during the 2013 season. He is locked in at right around $5 million a season for the next three years, which is fairly reasonable. A slight uptick in his production during his second year with the Bears is definitely possible as well. His ceiling is capped as the fourth option in the passing game behind Marshall, Jeffery and Forte. He is right in the mix with about seven other tight ends to round out the lower range of the top ten fantasy tight ends.

As for the rest of the tight ends, much like the other skill positions, the Bears really lack depth. Should something happen to Bennett, there isn’t anyone on the roster who could step up and replace his production. Their backup will likely be signed in free agency or drafted.

jacob feldman