12 Responses to “The DLF Mailbag”

  1. Heisenberg says:

    I am stacked at WR, could use RB help. What can I get for a Harvin/Hilton package?

  2. Dave says:

    I’m looking for news about players on my roster and was hoping to find some on here. I’m in a 16 team TD point system. We have the option now at starting 3 wr’s or 3 rb’s if needed this season so I made deals to acquire Demaryius Thomas and Jimmy Graham to put with Josh Gordon. Problem is it has left me with just Zac Stacy as my only stable RB. I acquired Steven Ridley in a trade and have Latavius Murray and Stepfan Taylor on my roster. Has anyone heard if Taylor will be taking Mendenhall’s spot on the roster or if Murray will be given a chance to earn the starting spot? I love Ridley’s talent but dealing with Bellichek will drive any owner crazy. Just curious if or what rumors you guys have heard.

  3. Cameron says:

    Thank you very much for the answer. Looks like I’ll hold on to Forte for another year and see what he brings me.

  4. Baker Boys says:

    1.) If Tavon Austin was coming out this year, how would he rank with the current crop of wide receiver prospects?

    Jeff Haverlack wrote an interesting article that addresses this issue fairly nicely. Any WR selected outside of the first 6 picks of the NFL draft only has an 8% chance of being a stud. Although Austin was the 1st WR taken he was still the #8 pick overall. Now if you agree with Jeff’s analysis then Austin is a very risky option to be anything more than a flex and/or bench player.

    I wouldn’t take that trade.

    Good Luck

  5. Moishe says:

    Thanks for the Q&A — I enjoy them! I do need to take great exception, though, to your final response. Spiller over Brees?? I get your thinking about Wilson earlier and your view of QBs being available late. But, Brees — he is a game-changing QB, with Rodgers and Peyton. Those three guys do not fit the “wait on QB” approach. There is no way that I keep a massively questionable RB like Spiller over him. Lynch, Forte, guys like that — maybe. But no way on Spiller. Thanks again for the Mailbag!

    • Robert says:

      I agree with EricH(keep Spiller)–the payoff could be HUGE.
      I play in a keep-3 league (although round one goes back into the pool, & each keeper’s pick moves up only one round per year), and once the keepers are made, RBs are GOLD.

      Two years ago this month, I was the “You guys can have Spiller” guy, in the Spiller v. Demarco Murray debate. That was 2012, and Fred Jackson turns 33 next week.

      I think 1500 total yards + 6TDs is a worst-case scenario for Spiller, but he’s capable of finishing as the 2014RB1.
      Don’t forget FJax’s contract is up this year, too.

      Seems like Spiller will be pretty solid EVEN IF he doesn’t go completely off this year. I think the gamble’s worth a little trade-off at QB.

      • SJ says:

        I think theres always a number of stats you can throw around as projections for Spiller next year, but the two things that really tell the story – and greatly limit is consistency – is the downturn in receptions and no goal line carries.

        If hes not getting cheap TD’s and forced to score from way out, that’s a huge detriment. The lack of receptions from 2012 to 2013 season also project poorly for him in 2014.

        End of story, Spiller is a great RB3, okay RB2 and not a good RB1 because you only want to use him when he catches fire. And if he catches fire – great – put him in your lineup. Thats what an RB3 is tailored for. But you need more consistency from a RB1 player, and hes definitely not it.

        • Robert says:

          All great points, and they are the very things I struggled with in making a case for Spiller.

          Still, he has serious skills, and he’s already the team’s starting RB. His role will only increase going forward, and I can’t think of another player in a better position to make a bigger impact in ffb.

          Since the keepers kill the RB pool, I would give up the points in Steve’s QB trade-off for (an OK RB2 with stud-RB1 potential) Spiller.

          Besides, after 48 keepers are selected, who’s Steve going to draft to replace Spiller as his RB2? I’d keep Spiller and probably expect to snatch up another RB (at least) BEFORE grabbing a QB.

          • Moishe says:

            Thank you everyone for the replies!

            Here is where I diverge from your rationale, Robert. Going by your draft, the following needs to happen:

            1. Spiller or the RB that you take in the next round needs to hit big time to make up the point differential absent Brees, and

            2. The QBs that you draft late as a committee need to function comparably to Brees’s production.

            Only then will you get more points. But, for me, that’s a lot to bank on.

            I would MUCH rather:

            1. Keep Brees (his points are about as sure as possible AND are significantly above what any QB committee will likely produce).

            2. Then, with my next 3 or so picks, load up on RBs.

            As long as one of them just ends up as RB2, then this combo will outscore anything but a prefect-drafted strategy with Spiller. And, if one of the RBs (i.e., a 2013 rookie) exceeds expectations, then this will give the best opportunity to maximize points: Brees plus a guy like Lacy, Stacy, or L. Bell from last year!

            I don’t discount your thoughts or recommendation, Robert. I just see my strategy as both safer and with the higher upside. I guess it all rests on the fact that I consider Spiller highly unreliable — closer to a McFadden tease than a McCoy stud.

  6. Robert says:

    Fun exercise in strategy. It looks like the age-old “wait vs. don’t wait on QBs” debate. I think it’s clear where we both stand lol.

    These days, I tend to discuss strategy in terms of what I’M doing, as opposed to a offering recommendations. I enjoy the process–that “seat of the pants” aspect of decision-making vs. outcome–so I tend to play rather wide-open with my strategies(I’m SICK that way!).


    GROUP I (likely keepers)
    RBs(19): mcoy charles martin ap forte lacy gio lynch bell dmurray stacy morris vereen mathews rice foster reggie cj2k mjd gore
    WRs(19): ajg dez dthomas marshall megatron gordon julio cobb jeffry antonio harvin fitz hilton djax vjax garcon kallen andre cruz
    TEs(2): graham gronk
    Qbs(4): peyton rodgers luck cam

    GROUP II (general dispersal pool)
    rg3 brady stafford wilson romo foles kap rivers cutler ben ryan
    trich moreno ball ivory lmurray btate lmiller lattimore ridley jbell abrown sproles ellington mcfadden dbrown dwilson
    crabtree floyd patterson jordy welker torrey wallace hpkins wright
    jthomas cameron vdavis witten pitta rudolph olsen bennett reed lgreen

    Give or take a few players among the keepers, GROUP II is the bulk of our dispersal pool. My decision is that I don’t have the luxury of keeping Brees. If I drop Spiller, I go into the season with Bernard as my RB1 (yikes!), and you-tell-me who else I end up with.

    In my 2013 keep3 league, Brees averaged only 6 (or less) points more than 15 other QBs. Gio and Spiller averaged 12ppg between them (RB2 avg.), and are virtual locks to improve in 2014. I’ll be lucky to get 10ppg from whoever I end up with in this dispersal draft.

    If I’m interpolating properly, my Gio-Spiller combo (versus Brees)costs me 2ppg, worst-case, when both players repeat their 2013 output, while my general dispersal RBs (RB3s & 4s) will cost me 4 ppg IF they exceed expectations.

    My calculated gamble pays off if(when) Gio &Spiller improve in 2014, and it gets better if I manage to hit on my other RB(s). If I pick a good QB & draft well at the other positions, then win, lose or draw–I’VE SEEN THE ELEPHANT!

  7. esloan35 says:

    Anybody in their right mind think Andrew Luck is worth RG3 and 1.7 in this years draft. I have been going round and round with a fellow owner.

  8. sixshooter says:

    I’d have to say that I was surprised with the first question. I completely thought you would take Austin’s defense and am completely defending your decision not to. If I had a choice between a #4 or #5 pick or Austin…..I would take the pick!

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