72 Responses to “Dynasty Rankings Roundtable”

  1. BeTheMatch says:

    Ponder will not be back with the Vikings next year to be resurrected by Turner. That’s pretty much a foregone conclusion.

  2. DAG says:

    Great idea and article! This is a fantastic idea as my brother and I often look at your rankings and sometimes wonder the thought process of why certain individuals rank players so much higher or lower than the masses.
    That being said, I am curious of Eric O’s ranking of Foles as the QB4. As a Foles owner, I am very hopeful for him and curious what Eric sees in him.
    Thanks guys!

    • Karl Safchick says:

      I have him ranked as my QB6, so I obviously don’t have much of a disagreement on his ranking. Without going into too much detail, I see him having a similar career trajectory as Aaron Rodgers. Maybe I’ll cover Foles the next time I feature Eric Olinger in my article!

  3. Bob says:

    The Vikings did announce thst cpatt would be starting next year. Hopefully that can kill his inconsistency woes

    • Karl Safchick says:

      Whether or not he starts will not have any impact on his consistency. If he’s inconsistent, he’ll just me more consistently inconsistent if he’s in the game more. The dude has limitless potential, but as I said, he has to polish his game.

      • Ken Moody says:

        At the beginning of last year I was very doubtful Patterson would make it in the NFL. After seeing him play, he just strikes me as one of those guys who has the ‘it’ factor. Not scientific, I know. I think with some players though, you can just tell. He’s still young, I’m pretty confident he’ll continue to improve. I think we have all become a bit jaded in our view of player development. It’s so hard for WR’s, even good ones, to perform well in their rookie year. Used to be it was commonly accepted that a WR wasn’t going to be productive until year three or so. Not at all surprising that a rookie like Patterson would struggle at times. His physical talents give him such a high ceiling that I’ll happily roll the dice on him, especially when I don’t think it’s all that much of a gamble.

        • Johnny Bag of Donuts says:

          Patterson is a freak talent wise he needs to develop in huge way as a WR though and I question his hands as he lets ball into body way more than you see the top WR….if he puts in effort he can be a devastating weapon but right now he is extremely limited in what he can do at WR position…..He is electric though that is for sure….

          • Bob says:

            He will still be a boom or bust player but with improved QB play, i think he can fall back on 5 for 50 in games he does not explode.

          • sixshooter says:

            I would love to have CP on my team but unfortunately do not. I believe he has Randy Moss potential and will live up to it as long as he keeps his nose clean!

  4. Steve says:

    Down the stretch, over his last five games, as the offensive line gelled and Bell seemed to be more comfortable, he averaged 4 yards per carry. It seems like no one noticed, unless maybe you were starting him.

    • Karl Safchick says:

      I surely didn’t notice anything special from Bell, and a 4 YPC average over five games surely won’t peak my interest. If any RB claim to fame is a 4 YPC average over five games, he won’t be in the league long. Fortunate for Bell, he’ll have opportunity to improve.

      • Johnny Bag of Donuts says:

        Karl you need to watch more tape especially last 4-5 games of Bell if you didn’t see anything special….he did everything well behind a truly prutrid O-line….he is 260 pound who has quick feet and soft hands and huge amount of heart…4 is right for him in full year we should be talking 1500 total and 10 plus TD’s….are you telling me you wouldn’t like that production in your starting lineup on consistent basis….?

      • Krcilr says:

        Dont you think his footwork is what separates him from others? I just felt like he was in full control of everything.

      • Mister Mister says:

        I have to agree with these other guys. I was very skeptical of Bell when they drafted him, but after watching a few Steelers games he really impressed me. He has soft hands and is very good in space for a guy his size. His O-Line was awful and some of those 2 or 3 yard gains could easily have been losses if not for Bell’s talent. You should really go back and watch him some. The 3.5 ypc stat doesn’t do him justice.

  5. Chris says:

    If/when Gio gets a full workload then I could see him in the top 4. Would you guys still rank him there without a full workload?

    • Karl Safchick says:

      I rank Gio as my RB6, and I do that with the assumption that he’s always going to be somewhat in a RBBC situation. Now, he will gain more of a percentage of carries in the coming years, but he is explosive and efficient, so his numbers will come in limited playing time. Fixing his ceiling in place.

    • Ken Moody says:

      Splitting time I think he’d still be a top 10-12 guy. I don’t think he’ll ever be a full on true featured back, but he should emerge as a focal point of their running game, and assuming that happens, look out.

      • Tom says:

        I recall when many were saying the exact same thing about McCoy, Charles, and Chris Johnson when they came out. I think Gio runs with just as much power and lower body strength as each of these 3 rb’s so – In my opinion he is just as likely to be a true 3 down back as any of them are / were. Gio – in my opinion is also a more talented all around rb than Bell so I’d have him ranked higher based on talent alone. Even if Gio doesn’t get 225 – 250 touches (which is quite low imo) – he still easily has the athletic ability and explosiveness (like Spiller) – to be a top 5 producer in ppr leagues for next 5 plus years. L.Bell to me is a slightly more talented version of D.Thomas. I could see him losing the job or it going to more of a rbbc in Pit, sooner rather than later if his paltry ypc do not improve.

        • Johnny Bag of Donuts says:

          Tom and many others are completely twisted in view of Bell…the kid is a super athletic 260 pound back with soft hands….he showed he can be physical and has nose for goal line can catch anything and is in line for 50-65 catches in a full season….YPC is very skewed this year for him given woeful state of Pitts line….he showed a ton but because he doesn’t have breakaway speed he is discounted…it is ridiculous…he is a true 3 down bell cow…how many of them are there out there anymore? 4, 5 true ones? gio will NEVER be that but the love for him is crazy strong….Pitts loves Bell they will address O-line with all pro center back and FA/draft…Bell is a RB1 and will be for a long time…the ranking at 4 here is one of few who have him evaluated right….D Thomas? That is a stupid comparison D Thomas is nothing…a slug and not even rostered in my league…to compare him to Bell is insulting….keep hyping Gio I love it

          • doktor says:

            Defending Bell quite a bit here. Are you Le’Veon Sr.?

          • Johnny Bag of Donuts says:

            some one has to….teh comparison to D Thomas just sent me over the edge…lots of clueless people out there blinded by straight line speed…I am calm now….Bell is gonna be a back you want to own that is all I am saying…..

        • Jim says:

          I’ve got to agree with Johnny on this one. To me, Bell is an easy top 5 RB for a number of reasons, both talent-wise and opportunity. He plays at about 240lbs and is QUICK. You don’t notice at first because he’s so big but he changes direction in a heartbeat and can take the edge when needed. He’s not going to break off a ton of 50+ yard runs but a 4.6s 40yd time is pretty good for his size. For comparison, fantasy darlings Zac Stacy and Christine Michael ran 4.55s and 4.54s respectively.

          As Johnny said, his YPC will go up once Pitt’s O-line is healthy and starts to gel. The fact they’re moving to a zone blocking scheme will help Bell even more, he’s a perfect fit and the reason the Steelers brought in a new O line coach. And while important, I’m not as worried about YPC for a workhorse back like Bell. Guys like Spiller and Gio are great talents but their YPC is also “inflated” because they don’t get goal line carries. Give me a lower YPC all day if that means he’s scoring 10+ TDs consistently.

          And even if you don’t believe in this kid’s talent his workload is enough to warrant top 10 ranking easily. I think it’s a very safe assumption his workload either increases next year or, at worst, stays the same. Worst case scenario, he should have about 300-320 carries and 55-60 receptions. Let’s say his YPC goes to 4 which is reasonable and his YPR drops slightly to 8. That’s a baseline of 1200 rush yds, 55 recs, 440 rec yds and lets call it 10 TDs. That’s a high end RB1 all day long. Oh, and he also had the 3rd highest consistency rating this year. Give me Bell over Gio all day long.

          • Tom says:

            I’m not comparing Bell to D.Thomas per say – I know that is what I said but in reality I was kind referring to how he jumped from rb10 or so to some folks rb1 after the nfl draft. I feel Bell is a slightly above average rb with real nice size in a potential good situation due to lack of competition. I don’t now and didn’t pre draft ever think he was an elite talent in any part of his game – more like a rb that was good to decent at most of his game. I am concerned about the ypc a bit and I’m not convinced that the kid is the type of player that will be able to handle the 350-380 total touches you state would be his worst case scenario even if they address their line issues. To each their own though. I’m ok with you guys liking him and ranking him higher. You make good cases – I just don’t see it is all.

          • Luck says:

            Agree with Johnny and Jim. I can even see Bell outscoring Lacy next season.

          • sixshooter says:

            I was not a Lacy (or Bell) fan per say, coming out of college but I must say that Lacy got my attention waaaaay more than Bell last year. I would feel much better having Lacy on my roster than Bell but I have neither. Just an unbiased opinion!

          • alden says:

            I think Bell is under rated, but im ok when guys compare him with Gio both are good up and coming RBs. But when he is compared to Vereen I don’t see it. Vereen cant stay healthy although he is a great third down back, but that’s all I see him as. If and when New England replaces TE Hernandez spot with a athletic TE, then Vereens stats will go down. they called on him more this year as they no one else that could play that role.

            Vereen will never be more than a RB3, where Bell has the chance to be a RB1.

  6. Sal says:

    Ranking Patterson #10 or whatever is beyond asinine – he caught 87% of his yardage on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage. Sounds more like a RB playing WR.

    Not sure how any fantasy “expert” can rank Patterson that high when he hasn’t proven jack at this level beyond the ability to “run fast.”

    • Ken Moody says:

      *shrug*
      I have no ‘expert’ signs hanging around my office, so take my opinion or don’t. Sounds like you’d rank him differently, and that’s great, that’s part of the reason we are here is to intelligently discuss player valuation. Definitely appreciate the feedback. Thanks! KM

      • derek says:

        Thanks for the work you guys do!

        I have patterson in a full point ppr 1 qb 1 hb 1 wr 2 flex (hb/wr) 1 te league. I’m in a strong position to win now and am looking to capitalize on cp’s potential by trading for a more established player.

        in your opinion, what would be some realistic targets

      • sal says:

        So instead of a rebuttal you just say “*SHRUG*”

        That’s right, b/c aside from him being on your team probably, you simply can’t justify ranking somebody WHO CAUGHT 87% OF HIS TEAM’S YARDAGE FROM PASSING BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE.

        But don’t stop believing.

        • Dave says:

          Relax!

          Appreciate the work guys. I’m not a big Patterson fan and would be more inclined to take another wide receiver who is more proven and of a more traditional wr1 skill set.

          I do think that development is key for him. I suppose if he does improve route running and starts catching the ball more frequently down field, then the skies the limit. I mean, he’s already making due with limited opportunity and without a competent QB.

        • Chris in Chuck says:

          So what you’re saying is a guy who can take a short pass and make it a long gain should be knocked for his ability to do so? Do they only award points in your league for catches beyond the line of scrimmage? Does run after the catch not count? I have heard of all sorts of crazy scoring systems but that would be truly remarkable.

          As for me and mine, I prefer a guy who can make a play no matter where the ball is thrown/caught. Bubble screens are a part of every NFL game plan and are probably more important when QBs lack elite talent.

          So unless you’re saying Patterson cannot catch the ball when thrown downfield, and pointing to evidence for such a conclusion, feel free to voice your opinion with a big tall glass of shut the hell up juice.

          • James says:

            I don’t think he’s saying that Patterson is bad – just that the rate is unsustainable and not necessarily indicative of the performance you would expect out of a WR1, as the rankings would suggest.

          • Michael says:

            Patterson scored 9 total TD’s last year in a very part-time role. It’s actually incredible. With that QB play and the limited number of snaps he still crossed the goal-line 9 times. In a full-time role with a competent QB (Big If) could he not score 18 times? I don’t actually think he scores 18 TD’s but the sample size we did get is very impressive. There is no reason not to be optimistic. Get him before it’s too late.

          • smcguiga says:

            Chris I don’t think anyone is doubting CP potential or explosiveness…what he did show last year in pure raw god given talent was truly breath taking at times….the issue is he really isn’t even close to being a real WR…he can’t run many route’s in route tree….which is why he go screens and they handed him the ball…even the fad in red zone eluded which is definately a MAJOR concern…he let’s ball into his body way too much as well. He is a rare talent and his explosiveness is incredible but he has a LONG way to go to being a truly feared WR1…teams will adjust and he isn’t going to be taking a ton of handoffs for TD’s next year they will recognize when he is in backfield and adjust…anyway kid is special talent but beyond raw…the hands issue would really concern me…reminds of Stephen Hill in that regard which is not a good thing.(I am not comparing two just saying they have similar issues in catching ball).

          • doktor says:

            “even the fad in red zone eluded which is definately a MAJOR concern”

            Umm, what??
            Again please, in English this time?

          • Johnny Bag of Donuts says:

            doktor…..what I was trying to say was even a relatively simple route like the fad was an issue for patterson….I saw them attempt 4 of them and every time patterson did not run route correctly(he basically just ran a go from the 10 yard line and was hoping to out muscle jump defender for ball)….this is a pretty basic route and key for red zone looks….he can learn to run it but right now he doesn’t know how is all I am saying…ties back to being raw

          • sixshooter says:

            Sorry but anyone doubting CP is making a huge mistake…..this guy will be a beast next year! Honestly, I think his critics are misinforming others on his future value and no…..he is not on any of my teams although I wish he was!

    • Jim says:

      I agree, ranking Patterson as a top 10 WR above guys like Garcon, Cruz, Decker and Nelson is absurd.

      • Kris says:

        Steve W has Nelson at WR27, Keenan at WR30, and Decker at WR34. And he has Percy at WR8, Floyd at WR14, and Crabtree at WR16. I need explanations from this guy!

        6 of the remaining 7 have Allen as a WR1, yet he has him as a middling WR3. If he is burying him b/c of his age, then why did he pump up Nuk and CP (both WRs who were destroyed by Allen this year). I don’t own Allen, but that is disrespectful!

        • Michael says:

          What Patterson did in a part-time role is amazing. In a full-time role his upside is closer to Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, or Julio Jones than Jordy Nelson or Pierre Garcon. He’s 6 years younger than those guys. If you want to play small ball with Pierre Garcon feel free. I would rather take a player who scored 9 TD’s last year with the worst QB in the league as a #3 WR and who physically compares to AJ Green or Julio Jones then go with OLD reliable Jordy. Swing for the fences, baby. How else do you land the next Josh Gordon?

          • Jim says:

            I guess it just comes down to preference, team composition and league settings. Garcon, Cruz and Nelson are all borderline low WR1/high WR2. Yeah, you might never get another top 5 performance from them but you’re also not going to get a dud. They’re also all players with at least another 4-5 years of very solid production. Does Cordarelle have a higher ceiling? Hell yes he does. But he also doesn’t have a QB, doesn’t run good routes and his hands are questionable.

            There’s more hype surrounding Cordarelle this year than Gordon had last year and Gordon had a LOT more going for him even though he essentially took a 2 year hiatus from football. I’m not saying he couldn’t be great, I’m just saying that his value is out of whack.

        • Johnny Bag of Donuts says:

          Keenan Allen at WR27 is obviously a mistake…he is top 10 in dynasty given what he just did in not even full rookie year(didn’t really get into O until week 4 and wasn’t even active week 1)….you just need to completely ignore rankings like that as they are completely outside the realm of reality.

  7. Mercenaries says:

    Kyle Rudolph seems to be someone that you guys are all over the map on rankings wise with a high rank of #3 and a low of #15. As a Rudolph owner I’d love to hear the thinking behind the variance in rankings, as well as your thoughts on his future production now the Norv Turner is running the offense.

  8. JimG says:

    I guess I’m wondering about Drew Brees (5) and Peyton Manning (11) one age 35 coming off a decent season and one 37 coming of what one could call one of the greatest season ever. with PMan saying he certainly feels he will play next year…why so low..I would assume age alone but with Brees up there wondering what the thoughts were with those rankings. I certainly would want Manning if he plays (look at the weapons) than Brees…but wouldnt blink at either one. I think the thing I’m most concerned about is that at least in our leagues which most of us use your rankings at a gauge could cost me extra draft picks for Brees and kinda devalues PMan…Thoughts

    • Karl Safchick says:

      I have Brees ranked ahead of Manning, but I wouldn’t argue with anyone that had it any different. With Manning’s neck surgery and age, I’d rather have Brees who may play another 2 or 3 more years.

  9. phantasy5 says:

    Why is McFadden an outcast? I know he can’t stay healthy but when he’s on the field he’s pretty damn good! I think him getting as far away from Oakland as possible is the best thing for his career. Actually contemplating a deal involving him before he gets his new destination. Would you trade Fleener & Stills for Run DMC?
    Part 2: What do you think Stills is worth? Have another offer Stills for a 3rd rounder? I thought he’s worth a 2nd myself, not sure if I should do either one, thoughts?

    • Karl Safchick says:

      McFadden has earned his outcast status. If you plan on buying low, I’m not going to talk you out of it. He should be had for a compliment. I’d rather have Stills and Fleener over McFadden. I’d also rather have Stills than a 3rd. You were right. He’s worth closer to a 2nd.

      • phantasy5 says:

        Thanks Karl I appreciate it! I think I’m going to back out of both of them after thinking about it and perhaps coming to my senses. My thoughts were getting DMC as an RB3 to pair with Vereen. I have Lynch & CJ1K as my starters so I should be ok.

        • Karl Safchick says:

          I hate to bring only bad news, but I wouldn’t want Lynch or Chris Johnson in dynasty. Lynch is facing the possibility of a suspension next year, and Johnson will likely be splitting reps with someone outside of Tennessee. This might be your last chance to sell high on either of them. Good luck!

  10. Kris says:

    Percy Harvin, Shane Vereen, and Eric Decker are guys I would like some explanations about. Two have Percy as a WR1 and two have him as a WR3. I think the truth is in the middle but he is not a WR1. Same with Shane Vereen where half have him as a RB1, but astounds me is that his lowest ranking is RB20. I mean 1,092 career total yards in 26 games is worthy of a RB1? But Ryan Mathews has two top 10 rushing seasons in the past 3 seasons with pass catching abilities and he gets no love.

    And Steve W. ranking Decker at WR34 is just flat out disrespectful, 26 spots lower than Percy Harvin who hasn’t played meaningful football in forever it seems. Back to back 1,000 yard seasons with 14 total TDs is somehow 26 spots lower than an injury risk who has never had one 1,000 yard season?

    I want answers!!!

    • Karl Safchick says:

      Thank you for the enthusiasm! All of those questions are worth bringing up in the next few editions of the series. Keep your eyes open for them. Decker is going to be a lightning rod once he hits free agency.

    • sixshooter says:

      Totally agree!!!!

    • Steve Wyremski says:

      Decker is a function of Manning. He’s average at best. I suspect he’ll move on in FA, so have ranked him accordingly.

  11. Big B says:

    nice read Karl. as you can tell by the thread we all love the info. what do you think about dynasty rankings discussion by position???

    everyone has their guy they want addressed and i think a position format would be awesome. i love the foles talk as i’m trying to pry him from the hands of a qb hoarding owner. That said, i am struggling evaluating foles vs. measuring kaepernick’s talent and his harbaugh enduced ceiling….thoughts.

    • Karl Safchick says:

      Thank you for the kind words. Foles is definitely someone who’d I’d like to see discussed. I will try to get him covered in the coming editions.

    • SJ says:

      +1

      I think B has a really good idea – it’d be cool to see a overview of the top 10, top 15, top 30 QB, RB, WR/TE groups, and see some of the reasons for why certain players are listed as outliers or over/undervalued. I’m sure there’d be a lot of debate

  12. Derek says:

    Dlf, anyway you could poll the readers for a ‘reader’s comprehensive ranking’?

    • Karl Safchick says:

      While that sounds like a great idea, I think pulling that much data together into one ranking would be near impossible. Even if we could create a program that would let thousands of people enter rankings, you’d have guys voting for Tim Tebow 400 times a night. It wouldn’t even actually represent a “readers ranking”.

      If you would like to contribute, Ryan McDowell is always looking for guys to participate in his mock drafts. All info goes into our ADP data.

  13. Jake Storm says:

    Value of Adrian Peterson

    Despite his superhuman healing powers – Adrian Peterson’s age has been worrying me. I liked seeing his name in this segment. Despite leading my league that I own him in scoring last year I decided this off season that if I could get a good deal for him I would move him while his value is still high. Completed this trade last night. I have allot of depth at TE so felt OK in trading Olsen in a package deal.

    Gave up – Peterson, Olsen, 3.2 rookie pick
    Received – Trent Richardson, Martellus Bennett, 1.5, 1.9, 2.10

    I’m not huge on T-Rich but feel he is a good bounce back candidate or can be used for trade bait. I think this trade is the pinnacle of what you can get for ADP.

    • SJ says:

      Honestly, Id expect more for AP. Your talking about a foundation player that some people would argue should have a no-trade clause if on your roster, given the scarcity and volatility of the NFL workhorse RB.

      Even if AP has only 2 years left at this level, thats still two championship caliber years on your team. So honestly, I dont think you can go wrong with having him on your team this year, especially if hes costing significantly less than even a top 3 pick with 2-3 other 1st rounder’s or a stud in return.

      • Jake Storm says:

        3 draft picks (including 2 first rounders – pick 5 & 9) and Trent Richardson for Peterson not enough? This is not a trade I took lightly in executing. The option of getting 3 young building blocks for the next 10 years was too tempting to pass up. My fear is that in 2016 Peterson is done. He has had off season surgery 3 years in a row now.

        I have been left holding the bag when workhorse RB’s in their late 20′s early 30′s have the wheels come off (see Steven Jackson, Jamaal Anderson,etc.) Peterson has had a ton of career touches & turns 29 in less than 2 months. Reggie Bush is the only other RB in the top 20 in most dynasty rankings that will be 29 to start the 2014 season.

        • Johnny Bag of Donuts says:

          the problem with this trade is trent richardson IMO….he showed almost nothing last year, I would have to get a RB back that I can count on with the picks to make this move….Richardson could very well be a bust

    • bigefat says:

      If you had TE depth, why take another TE?
      I haven’t had the privilege of owning “All Day” but, can’t imagine that taking TRich and a couple of picks would help me sleep at night!

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