Dynasty Debate: DeMarco Murray vs. Shane Vereen

If someone were to make a film or write a book about the 2013 fantasy football season, they would probably title it “The Fall of the Running Back” due to the overall disappointing production from the position across the league.  Whether it can blamed on injuries (David Wilson and Doug Martin, for example) or just general ineffectiveness (Trent Richardson and Lamar Miller, for example), fantasy football owners in all formats are now re-evaluating their strategy to the running back position for their teams.

After the top tier of scorers at the position (LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte), there is a whole slew of players in the next tier who could serve as a fantasy team’s RB1 in the coming years.  Two of those players, Shane Vereen and DeMarco Murray, ended up with almost identical Average Draft Position (ADP) according to Ryan McDowell’s recently compiled January ADP data.  Both players were drafted as the 31^st player off the board, or, in terms of rounds and picks, the seventh pick of the third round in a standard 12 team league.   In terms of their own position specifically, they were the 11^th and 12^th players taken amongst running backs which means both were basically considered low end RB1s by dynasty owners.  Thus, we will present our arguments between these players to help readers differentiate between two.

Jeff’s Argument for DeMarco Murray

In order to avoid sounding too repetitive, I’ll try to focus my argument as much on the 2013 season and the future as possible.  To start the comparison, it’s probably best to recap exactly what kind of seasons Murray and Vereen had and then go from there.  Here is a table with the pertinent information:

An argument between these two players based solely on their 2013 numbers obviously isn’t very fair or useful since Vereen missed eight games on the injured reserve while recovering from wrist surgery.  His total PPR output was only good enough to finish the season as RB36 but on a per game basis, his 16.8 fantasy points per game qualified him as RB10 for the year. Murray, on the other hand, finished the season as the RB6 overall and his average was good enough to boost him up to RB4.

One of the most impressive things about Murray’s 2013 season is that he never posted single digit fantasy score (assuming PPR, of course). His range was from 11.0 on the low end to 33.2 on the high end with a standard deviation of 7.1. He had four games with greater than 25 fantasy points, which in my opinion exemplifies an important trait for a fantasy team’s RB1 – the ability to lift a fantasy team on the player’s proverbial shoulders and carry them to victory in any given week.  Vereen’s scores ranged from 5.1 to 34.2 with a standard deviation of 9.0 and only one scoring output greater than 25.  It’s fair to extrapolate his half-season out and assume he would’ve done it at least once more.  However, given the data, it’s easy to see that Murray was the more consistent producer of the two.  It’s also important to note his floor was higher while maintaining an equivalent ceiling.

The other thing to note here is how differently each player is used within his respective offensive system.  Murray is the Cowboys’ unquestioned bell cow, a three-down runner.  Much ado has been made about the team’s proclivity towards abandoning the running game too frequently, but the fact remains he’s their current stud.  There’s little to no competition for carries on the Dallas roster so his usage rates don’t depend much on a weekly gameplan and his ability to contribute in the passing game helps him retain value even when he’s not being fed the ball.  Regardless, it’s almost impossible to imagine the Cowboys running the ball any less than they did this year as they were 31^st in the NFL in total rushing attempts so if there’s any sort of ascension towards the mean with their playcalling in the future, it’s just a huge bonus for Murray.

On the other hand we’ve got Vereen, who is a very explosive and dynamic player in his own right, but one that is highly dependent upon the Patriots gameplan in any given week.  His season high in carries and receptions (14 and 12, respectively) and season lows in each category (1, 1) were all over the map so while he proved the ability to produce admirably, he also proved an ability to severely hamstring his fantasy owners.  With Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount commanding touches in the New England backfield, it’s hard to imagine Bill Belichick ever committing fully to Vereen for long enough to make him a viable and reliable fantasy RB1 option.  This isn’t news, though, as Belichick has been torturing fantasy owners for as long as memory serves.  Ridley and Vereen are both locked up through the 2014 season while Blount is set to become an unrestricted free agent.  However, if the team’s recent playoff victory over the Colts is any indication, it’s a reasonable assumption that New England will make an effort to keep Blount around for a while.

When it boils down to it, a winning fantasy team needs consistent production from their running back position and that’s what Murray provides.  Vereen is a very valuable fantasy asset for any dynasty owner but ultimately he’s a bit of a wildcard due to his role in a three-headed monster running back committee.  Until their respective situations change and we can re-evaluate, the preference between the two should be obvious.

Jaron’s Argument for Shane Vereen

Although I’m going against the grain, I’d target Shane Vereen over DeMarco Murray in a startup draft or trade. Jeff makes a very valid argument for the workload and consistency of the Cowboys’ star rusher, but the combination of Vereen’s explosive big-play ability and Murray’s durability concerns lean me toward the Patriot.

Talent has never been a criticism of Murray, and there’s no questioning his on-field production in 2013. I’m cautious for the same reason the former Oklahoma star fell to the third round of the 2011 draft: his lengthy injury history. Throughout college and his professional career, Murray has suffered injuries to his ankle, knee (including a dislocated kneecap), and lingering hamstring problems. Even aside from the durability concerns that have become synonymous with his name, Murray’s running style has been worrisome since the before the NFL combine. He runs high and seemingly focused on a specific running path with each carry, which narrows his vision and prevents him from seeing other open lanes. Case in point, he was only able gain 20+ yards on one of 53 receptions in 2013. Running right into defenders increases the number of shots he takes as well.

Conversely, Vereen’s versatility and elusiveness help him to avoid the big hits. Lining up all over the field, he creates matchup problems with the burst to quickly get by linebackers and the size advantage over a cornerback or safety. While a knock on him is that he shares the workload more than other star running backs, he gets plenty of breathers when spelled by New England’s other rushers. This keeps him fresh and ready to make your fantasy day on any given play.

As Jeff mentions, to compare the 2013 seasons between these players requires looking on a per-game basis given Vereen’s freak wrist injury caused him to miss half the season. Doing so, both backs had impressive yards-per-carry statistics (Murray’s 5.18 slightly above Vereen’s 4.73) while Vereen dominated the receiving statistics:

Murray decidedly led in one per game category: rushing touchdowns (with his .643 against Vereen’s .125), which as any fantasy player in a touchdown-heavy league will agree is often a crapshoot (i.e. Jerricho Cotchery scored ten touchdowns this year, which is two more than healthy receivers Kendall Wright, Danny Amendola, Lance Moore and Brandon Pettigrew combined). Take away the rushing touchdowns, and on a per-game basis Vereen topped Murray in PPR PPG: 16.06 to 14.73. While those rushing touchdowns obviously do count, they are much a much less consistent and reliable indicator of fantasy value than yardage. Aside from only six fewer receptions in six fewer games, Vereen led in all receiving categories including more than twice as many receiving yards per game.

The other advantage Murray held was in rushing attempts (15.5 per game to Vereen’s 5.5), which clearly more than compensated for the difference in receiving statistics. As the clear lead back on the Cowboys, this usage should continue as long as Murray stays healthy, along with about a handful of targets in the passing game. However, with more than seven targets in only one of fourteen games and the workload maxed, his upside is limited. On the other hand, in the five games he played before the Patriots secured their playoff spot, Vereen averaged 11 targets and eight receptions per game from Tom Brady. In PPR leagues, he scored 21.58 points per game during that stretch, including strong performances against Carolina, Cleveland, and Denver (ranked third, fourth, and fifth respectfully in fewest fantasy points allowed against opposing running backs) and in 2013 averaged over nine yards per reception versus Murray’s 6.6.

At the end of the day (or at my pick in the draft), I just don’t trust Murray to stay on the field for a long, productive career. Even if he does, 2013 was likely the best we’ll see out of him. While he was very productive, and in non-PPR formats I’d likely bump Murray up ahead of Vereen in my rankings, in PPR I’d rather have the higher ceiling and fewer durability issues with the back from New England. Expect him to be in the conversation in the 2^nd round of PPR dynasty startups for the next few seasons.

Conclusion

For two players at the same position with the same average draft spot, the choice comes down to personal preference  Take your pick between a steady three-down back and a versatile playmaker, both still young as Murray will be 26 in February and Vereen turns 25 in March. Consistency, durability, and risk versus reward will be factors as you choose between the two, and regardless of your selection we hope this discussion will help you feel confident in your decision.

Who would you take if given the choice?

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Jaron Foster

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A data analyst by profession, Jaron has been writing for DLF since 2012. Native New Englanders, Jaron and his wife are introducing their son (2010) and daughter (2014) to the Patriots. You can regularly find him on Twitter and in the DLF Forum at odd hours.

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