Over/Under: The Results, Part Two
This past off-season, we ran a weekly “Over/Under” series and today we’re going to continue our look back at the offensive players to see how I did. One thing I noticed after looking back at these was I was pretty accurate at predicting some of the lines, but was ever so slightly on the wrong side of the over/under prediction on one or more of the criteria. It was still a lot of fun. We can take this time to review these performances and also to talk about their future in the comments section. You’ll see both my original prediction and what I predicted “on second thought” right before the season started.
On to the recaps!
Andy Dalton, QB CIN
Original Line: 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns
Originally, I took the over on both the yards and touchdowns.
On second thought: I still believe think he’ll pass for 4,000 yards this year, but the touchdowns are going to be difficult due to Bernard’s nose for the end zone. This preseason he punched in three one yards touchdowns.
Season Stats: 16 games, 4,296 passing yards, 33 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, 183 yards rushing, two touchdowns.
Dalton was a legit QB1 this season for fantasy leaguers. His touchdown total has increased each year he’s been in the league. Unfortunately, so has his interception total. After his third consecutive first round playoff loss, the fans in Cincy want his head. All I can say is, remember the David Klingler and Akili Smith years.
Verdict: Winner!
David Wilson, RB NYG
Original Line: 1,200 yards rushing and 7.5 touchdowns
Originally, I took the under on both.
On second thought: Somewhere along the way I subconsciously bought into David Wilson. I even traded for him in two separate leagues on the same day. Even though I don’t think it will be easy, I do think Wilson will eclipse the 1,200 yard mark and score eight touchdowns.
Season stats: Five games, 146 yards rushing, one touchdown, two receptions, eight yards.
And boom goes the dynamite. All along we knew if Wilson’s fumbling issues popped up again he could very well end up in Coach Coughlin’s doghouse. Not only did that happen, but Coughlin held a legen- wait for it- DARY grudge. Wilson barely, and I mean BARELY, saw the field over the season’s first month. Then he was lost for the season with a neck injury in week five and the dumpster fire ended.
Verdict: Loser of epic proportions!
CJ Spiller, RB BUF
Original Line: 1,400 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving and 11.5 total touchdowns
Originally, I took the over on all accounts.
On second thought: I see injuries being the only thing possibly derailing this breakout. He’s one player I can’t wait to see this season.
Season stats: 15 games, 927 yards rushing, two touchdowns, 33 receptions, 185 yards, zero touchdowns.
So much for “riding him until he pukes.” Spiller actually ended up with six fewer carries than he had in 2012 and 10 fewer receptions. Part of it was due to a knee injury and part of it was due to Fred Jackson slugging Father Time for another year. 2013 was another frustrating year.
Verdict: Loser.
Wes Welker, WR DEN
Original Line: 90 receptions, 1,050 yards and eight touchdowns
Originally, I took the over across the board.
On second thought: I’ll still take the over on catches and yards but I’m going to now take the under on touchdowns. With Montee Ball picking up this offense and the emergence of Julius Thomas at the tight end position, I don’t think there will be enough red zone balls to go around after Eric Decker gets his.
Season stats: 13 games, 73 receptions, 778 yards, ten touchdowns
Missed it by that much. Maybe if he would have played the final three games he could have got to our line but a concussion prevented that. Welker was everything the Broncos offensive juggernaut needed. I thought the touchdowns would be the difficult goal but he was a red zone machine and Peyton Manning threw a billion touchdowns.
Verdict: Loser, but I want an asterisk due to the three games missed.
Tony Romo, QB DAL
Original Line: 4,200 yards and 28 touchdowns
Originally, I took the over on both.
On second thought: I’m still taking the over on both. Tony Romo is being taken after all the read option quarterbacks like Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson but it won’t surprise me to see Romo approach top six production this year.
Season stats: 15 games, 3,828 yards passing, 31 touchdowns, ten interceptions.
Here is another betting line which was in reach but missed due to injury. Romo was inconsistent this year throwing for 506 yards against Denver in week five but throwing for just 128 yards at New Orleans in week 14. He threw at least one touchdown in every game played though while cutting his interception total in half from last season.
Verdict: Loser.
Ryan Mathews, RB SD
Original Line: 1,000 yards rushing, 30 receptions for 250 yards and eight total touchdowns
Originally, I took the over on all of the above.
On second thought: I still like Mathews for 2012 and I’m still comfortable taking the over across the board. It’s difficult to not hold grudges against players when they cost you money but at some point you have to appreciate the value and bury the hatchet.
Season stats: 16 games, 1,255 yards rushing, six touchdowns, 26 receptions, 189 yards, one touchdown.
Even though Mathews fell just short of my passing game projections he was reborn in 2013. Even though he started the season a little slow and the “I told you so” whispers were getting loud he got on track in week six and finished as a legit RB1. I might have lost the battle here, but I feel like I won the war.
Verdict: Loser, but I feel like a winner.
Matt Forte, RB CHI
Original Line: 1,100 yards rushing, 500 yards receiving and ten total touchdowns
Originally, I took the over for all the lines.
On second thought: I will still take the over. I think it’ll be close because 1,600 total yards is difficult for any player but new coach Marc Trestman will feature Forte in every way possible. Now he just has to stay healthy.
Season stats: 16 games, 1,339 yards rushing, nine touchdowns, 74 receptions, 594 yards receiving, three touchdowns.
Marc Trestmann was exactly what Forte needed. As expected, he set a career high in receptions and receiving yards this year along with a career high in rushing yards. Bottom line – he was incredible.
Verdict: Winner!
Percy Harvin, WR SEA
Original Line: 80 catches, 1,050 yards and six receiving touchdowns.
Originally, I took the under on Harvin.
On second thought: Hopefully he can return to 100% health and contribute at some point this season.
Season stats: One game, one reception, 17 yards receiving, no touchdowns.
The original article was written before the injury, the second was after we knew he would miss a few months.
Verdict: Gimme winner!
Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA
Original Line: 3,700 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.
Originally, I took the over on both.
On second thought: I’m now taking the under on both. Things haven’t gone well for the Dolphins this preseason and it looks like we might still be a year away from Tannehill breaking out.
Season stats: 16 games, 3,913 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, 17 interceptions, 238 yards rushing, one touchdown.
Always follow your initial instincts. I talked myself right out of this one. The amazing part of Tannehill’s season was the fact he was able to do this without any thought of a running game, a racism scandal, and getting sacked a league leading 58 times. Mike Wallace was basically a yearlong decoy because Tannehill never had time to throw deep. I’m excited to see what happens with him as long as his confidence isn’t shot.
Verdict: Loser.
Like I said earlier, all in all not too hateful for my first crack at season projections. Look for my “Over/Under: IDP” recap coming soon.
Thanks for reading.
How do you feel about these players as we move forward? What would you put their lines at for next season? Let me know in the comments section and stay tuned for part two of the review series.
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Seven - October 24, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Six - October 16, 2018
- Dynasty IDP Waiver Wire: Week Five - October 10, 2018
