Dynasty Spotlight: Zach Ertz

A big step in finding “the next big thing” in dynasty fantasy football is making sure they’re not already “a big thing.” Many of us wish to purchase players for cheap such as Alshon Jeffrey, Cordarrelle Patterson and Le’Veon Bell. Some of us may even think those three players are still currently “buy-lows.” Unless you’ve been participating in off-season dynasty mocks, you may not realize Jeffrey has been routinely selected in the first round of start-ups, while Patterson and Bell are both being consistently taken in the second round. These promising young players were well kept secrets at one point, but it seems as if, like any good secret, someone told to a drunk friend.

One name you won’t hear being mentioned around too many dynasty water coolers is Zach Ertz. Ertz is flying as under the radar as a top 35 draft selection on a top five offense can.

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Many are going to forget Ertz was an early draft pick because he wasn’t selected on the first day. Chip Kelly said that he and the Eagles staff were “surprised” when he fell into the second round. That’s just the type of factor that will affect his perceived value, but not his actual value. Tyler Eifert was touted as the top tight end prospect of the 2013 rookie class. With that honor, Eifert gathered plenty of perceived value. The less perceived value a player has, the cheaper his price tag will be.

Ertz’s January ADP is 96.3 (with his highest two selections being made by yours truly), but you shouldn’t care too much about why Ertz’s price tag will be low. You should only care that, once you invest in him, you will get value back in return.

Ertz is a great route runner. Many consider route running ability for a tight end to be about as valuable as arm strength for a kicker. Let me assure you it is a tool that can elevate a player from mediocrity to greatness. In a system such as Kelly’s offense, route running is essential. Kelly’s offense is based on timing, where the quarterback must essentially run the play as called and scan over his progressions. When a player is consistently in the right place, at the right time, he will garner as much attention from his quarterback as the prom queen will from adolescent high school boys. Once players gain the attention of their quarterback and coaches in games, they will gain their attention in practices and meetings. I suspect Ertz to be heavily involved in the Philadelphia Eagles’ game plan in 2014, but I’m not the only one to suspect this. Eagles beat writer, Jimmy Kempski, thinks “[Ertz will] have a much bigger role in 2014, possibly as a starter.” Personally, I won’t care who is considered the “starter” in 2014. I watched Jason Terry win multiple “sixth man of the year” awards while playing more minutes than most starters on the Dallas Mavericks. If Brent Celek is considered the starter, Ertz’ perceived value takes another hit, while his actual value stays intact.

Ertz has hands that seem to be soaked in super glue during pregame warmups. His ability to catch the ball, though, is surpassed only by his ability to adjust his body and high point balls above defenders. The back left corner of the endzone, one handed grab against the Minnesota Vikings comes to mind. He is certainly capable of making highlight type catches, such as that, but he is also capable of making the routine catch over the middle. He lacks fear of stepping in front of opposing teams strong safeties.

Tight ends of old were known to lineup next to the right tackle. When coaches were feeling rather innovative, they’d line up said player next to the left tackle. Take a deep breath and reminisce on the offenses our grandfathers grew up admiring – those offenses are gone for good. The tight ends of 2014 are expected to line up in the slot, as an H-back, out wide, and the loveable in-line position of yesteryear. Ertz can line up anywhere. Kelly loves to line up his players in different positions. Ertz is no exception. Not only is he playing all over the field for Kelly, but he did so in college as well. Offensive guru’s Jim Harbaugh and Pep Hamilton used Ertz in a similarly versatile role at Stanford.

Situation shouldn’t be considered as essential to value in dynasty as it is in redraft leagues or daily fantasy, but it is still important. The Eagles were top five in yards, top ten in passing, top five in scoring and first in rushing in 2013. They have explosive, young playmakers at seemingly every position. Favorable situations can become unfavorable overnight, but I don’t predict the Eagles offense will decline statistically any time in the near future. Nick Foles seems to be the real deal, and outside of DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy, there isn’t anyone nearly as talented as Ertz in that passing game. Currently the NFC East consists of some of the worst passing defenses in the league. While that isn’t likely to hold true over the next decade, Ertz will benefit from it in the short term.

I suspect Ertz to be one of the ascending stars in the coming year. The time to purchase him at a reasonable price may be coming to an end this off-season.

Who do you think will be the next star in the NFL? What do you think a reasonable career trajectory will be for Ertz? Let me know if the comments section below.

Follow me on Twitter: @KarlSafchick

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